Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[OttoVonBismarck]

While to some degree we're all speculating, I think Malthus has the right of it in looking at Putin's motivations.

I frankly have grown very tired of the term "spheres of influence" and the ancillary argument about how Putin has to respond to NATO expansion. I think that whole concept was cooked up in foreign policy circles, because it matches "traditional" foreign policy thinking. Henry Kissinger would have loved that argument if you were discussing it with him c. 1975 or even 2005, or maybe even now, I'm not sure how much Kissinger has changed in his super-senility.

I also think for foreign policy types, there is "comfort" in this view. It is explainable, it matches lots of foreign policy academic publication for decades and all that good shit.

The reality I think is a lot uglier, more visceral, and IMO I think things are very close to what Malthus said, with a bit of fuzziness added in because we can't fully know what's going on in Putin's inner circle or Putin's mind.

I think people are, for some reason, more comforted by a belief that Putin is following a playbook from a 200-level political science course on the Cold War than they are with the idea he's following the much more "barbaric" "folkland" politics of an age we hoped we had left behind. Putin is obsessed with the Russian Empire, and a brand of nationalism that tightly ties the success of the Russian people to control of "traditional Russian lands."

He has probably taken this idea more into overdrive than any other autocrat. China kind of flirts with the same ideas for a few of its extraterritorial claims, and particularly over its claim to Taiwan, but they clearly are a good 2 or 3 iterations back from where Putin is--and at least to some degree there is evidence that the powers that be in the PRC don't fully get high on their own supply like Putin does, at least some of their shit is to build up nationalism in the population because it is a good insulator against reformism from within.

[celedhring]

I'm speechless 

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580292721117626369

[Jacob]

Ukraine's PR game is brilliant: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580090899228418048 

[Sheilbh]

Ukraine's PR game is brilliant: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580090899228418048 

They did a similar ABBA video for Sweden and Bond for the UK. It's mad - but effective.

[Valmy]

Ukraine's PR game is brilliant: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580090899228418048 

Well...how can you say no to that?

[Valmy]

I'm speechless 

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580292721117626369

This is why one must always keep your eyes on the road.

[alfred russel]

Well he has certainly put us in a very dire situation, having spent the past six years constantly talking about fraud and rigged elections (despite, you know, being President for four years when he could have done something about it, if it was true). His return to office is a very terrifying prospect.

The first time was a farce, the second time will be a tragedy.

[Admiral Yi]

Just heard on NPR that a senior Ukrainian intelligence officer said the bridge bombing was theirs.  A fertilizer bomb.  Could not say if the driver was duped or informed.  The government has still not claimed credit.

My comprehension and retention have been shaky recently so I'll try and dig up a link.

[Razgovory]

I'm speechless 

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580292721117626369

This is why one must always keep your eyes on the road.

Those things are hard to see out of.  It's like driving around looking through a straw.  Presumably partisans put those out there, because otherwise the recon guys aren't doing their job.  What struck me as odd is that driver and commander just sad down in front of the smoking vehicle.  Those things are like bombs on treads.  Besides, wouldn't you want to hid in case the mines were part of an ambush?

[Zoupa]

Dude is probably not long for this world. Concussion very likely, insides turned to mush.

[Berkut]

Yeah, I figured at the least badly concussed and in shock.

[The Brain]

IIRC Siege described when their Stryker was hit and they got out, and it took them some time to realize they were being fired at by small arms because they were disoriented by the explosion.

[Josquius]

Chatting with a Ukrainian colleague this morning.
She had been staying with a friend in Berlin for the past few months but just this Sunday gone moved back to Kyiv.
I get an idea this has been a trend lately. Lots of Ukrainian refugees trickling back home- often against their will due to a lack of support for them living elsewhere.

[Barrister]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1580339069531279361

Video of recently captured Russian soldiers.

They all describe roughly the same story: they were mobilized, wound up on the front line within days with a firearm but no food or water, stayed for three days then decided to walk back the way they came where they instead ran into a Ukrainian checkpoint and surrendered.

They all look like they're in really rough shape too.

[The Larch]

Russia is evacuating civilians from Kherson city, so I guess that Ukranians must be close to it already.