Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Trump, asked for a podcast how he thinks the war will play out ... talks about windmills being shit.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1501733405423251456?s=20&t=Iyyx9nPDaJM-_2F-Xus2nA

His brain rot must be terrible.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Something that may be too deep level military nerd for the journalists to care about--I really think a lot of Russia's problems can be tied to how a lot of their forward operating military is structured around these battalion tactical groups (BTGs.) The Russians have battalions operating like brigades, and brigades operating like divisions. (In comparison to the U.S.) When a unit as small as a battalion is providing all of its own artillery, MLRS, support/engineering...you end up with a high ratio of non-infantry to total personnel.

Again, a Russian BTG of 800 men might have 200 infantry in it. It has been noted by some observers that this puts the artillery component at significant risk of being outflanked and overrun; and that in conflicts in eastern Ukraine and Syria prior to this, Russian BTGs tended to have their flanks guarded by "irregulars", i.e. local friendlies of varying quality (Assad forces in Syria, pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine.) It should go without a lot of further exposition the varying problems this opens up. I think this could be part and parcel of why you're seeing so many Russians getting ambushed and taken out--at battalion scale their support staff and etc are grossly unprotected given how thinly stretched the infantry component of these battalions must be.

In comparison to a similar sized grouping in the United States Army, one of our Infantry Battalions is part of a three Battalion complement to a parent Brigade, much of the logistical and support staff are Brigade resources. The Infantry Battalion would contain three rifle companies, a weapons company, a forward support team, and a small HQ. The three rifle companies would have in total around ~400-450 infantrymen, not counting officers. So that's around 400-450 infantry for the battalion vs 200 for the Russian battalion tactical group.

Obviously the Russian BTC has more capabilities--it is designed as an independently deployable unit, but I think there are a lot of "dis-economies" of scale by pushing down so much to the battalion level like Russia does.

[Zanza]

One of those Twitter analysts (maybe Kofman?) posted some indepth analysis of this structure and also came to the conclusion that it is not a sensible organization for this kind of intensive warfare, but would probably work for counter insurgency or thunder runs.

[Berkut]

I think a lot of this analysis is interesting, but at the end of the day, doesn't matter much.

If your morale sucks and you can't get fuel and food and ammo to the troops, how you organize your battalion really doesn't matter.

[Sheilbh]

One of those Twitter analysts (maybe Kofman?) posted some indepth analysis of this structure and also came to the conclusion that it is not a sensible organization for this kind of intensive warfare, but would probably work for counter insurgency or thunder runs.

Interesting I think the French Chief of the Defence Staff made similar comments today and possibly one of the things to look at (for France) was whether their own forces are able to adapt to this type of intensive warfare after 20 years of focusing on counter-terrorism/special operations etc.

That may be slightly bowldlerised.

[Admiral Yi]

Trump, asked for a podcast how he thinks the war will play out ... talks about windmills being shit.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1501733405423251456?s=20&t=Iyyx9nPDaJM-_2F-Xus2nA

His brain rot must be terrible.

I'm reminded a little of Sarah Palin's debate coaching and her "pivots."

Except the point of pivoting is get onto a subject you know something about.

[Jacob]

That's interesting about Russian military organization. Seems like an expensive way to learn the lesson.

How long would it take to reorganize sufficiently, I wonder?

[The Minsky Moment]

My God Russia's propaganda game is weak.

Strong enough to activate their principal overseas asset - Fox News - which has been pounding away on variants of this story for the past 24-48 hours.

[Jacob]

Strong enough to activate their principal overseas asset - Fox News - which has been pounding away on variants of this story for the past 24-48 hours.

I've long wondered if Putin has kompromat on Murdoch.

I guess with American free speech being what it is, the only solution here is for people to turn away in disgust at Fox over time...?

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I think a lot of this analysis is interesting, but at the end of the day, doesn't matter much.

If your morale sucks and you can't get fuel and food and ammo to the troops, how you organize your battalion really doesn't matter.

That depends partly on how much "you can't get fuel and food and ammo to the troops" is driven by how the formations are organized, and how much low morale is driven by the former as well as the inability to properly engage with opposing forces.  Having a bunch of small, independent units will really strain logistics since there isn't a distribution chain to funnel resources through.  Having units that are incapable of actually operating independently against the enemy, and frequently get shredded as a result, is going to crater morale.

The BTGs are certainly not the single root cause of poor supply and morale, but the organization is at least making those problems far worse than they would be otherwise.

[The Minsky Moment]

I've long wondered if Putin has kompromat on Murdoch.

I guess with American free speech being what it is, the only solution here is for people to turn away in disgust at Fox over time...?

Plus maybe going beyond polite refined fact checking and start calling out Carlson and the like for the fucking traitors they are.

I've gotten used to their disinformation machine being abused to screw around with tax policy and sabotage Democrats but carrying water for Putin's clique while he is mass murdering his way through Ukraine is going too far.

[The Brain]

Corporations know that reorganizations always improve morale.

[grumbler]

That's what I thought.  You have bought the Russian line.

    Okay, Vlad.  If you say so, it must be true.

[crazy canuck]

That's what I thought.  You have bought the Russian line.

    Okay, Vlad.  If you say so, it must be true.

Oh my.  Ok let's all pretend it has nothing to do with Putin.  Completely separate good faith arms length company. 

Stop being a useful idiot.

[grumbler]

Oh my.  Ok let's all pretend it has nothing to do with Putin.  Completely separate good faith arms length company. 

I think that your idea here is moronic.  I'll bet that not even you believe that it is true.

Stop being a useful idiot.

Stop being a useless idiot.