Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Interesting article on the breakdown of what Ukraine needs, which moves things along a little from my general "send them everything" views. Definitely think a formal lend-lease arrangement would be helpful, but also upgrading other Eastern European forces so we can transfer any Soviet era equipment:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/13/eu-arm-ukraine-tanks-drones-mig29-weapons/

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Germany's commitment to re-armament and confronting Russia is sincere. But I also think such a thing will take many years to see to fruition, and how sincere they are could very well change over time when this crisis is less prominently front and center.

[FunkMonk]

For the sake of a possibly dumb argument, say France and the US are led by Putin-friendly presidents in a few years and Germany decides to recoil back into pacifism: Would a coalition of eastern European states (Poland, Baltics, Finland, free Ukraine) develop? Would they be able to resist Russian aggression by themselves?

[Admiral Yi]

Just saw Biden announced another $750 million in goodies for Ukraine.

[Legbiter]

Interesting article on the breakdown of what Ukraine needs, which moves things along a little from my general "send them everything" views. Definitely think a formal lend-lease arrangement would be helpful, but also upgrading other Eastern European forces so we can transfer any Soviet era equipment:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/13/eu-arm-ukraine-tanks-drones-mig29-weapons/

It's what we were talking about almost a month ago. Empty the Warsaw Pact military warehouses, start training them on more advanced systems. Do it quietly.

[Sheilbh]

For the sake of a possibly dumb argument, say France and the US are led by Putin-friendly presidents in a few years and Germany decides to recoil back into pacifism: Would a coalition of eastern European states (Poland, Baltics, Finland, free Ukraine) develop? Would they be able to resist a Russian aggression by themselves?

Alarmingly not a non-zero chance (although I actually think Germany's shift is more permanent and substantial than that)

I'd not be inclined after the last five weeks to bet against those countries in a war of national resistance as Ukraine has fought. Support and aid from the Western world has been essential to Ukraine, no doubt, but the core have been the skill and spirit of Ukrainian troops and people. Plus they seem to have adapted pretty quickly to Russian tactics (perhaps because they know what to expect?) and to still have a coherent state and military. Of all those countries I would have thought that Ukraine was the most vulnerable.

[Barrister]

For the sake of a possibly dumb argument, say France and the US are led by Putin-friendly presidents in a few years and Germany decides to recoil back into pacifism: Would a coalition of eastern European states (Poland, Baltics, Finland, free Ukraine) develop? Would they be able to resist a Russian aggression by themselves?

Alarmingly not a non-zero chance (although I actually think Germany's shift is more permanent and substantial than that)

I'd not be inclined after the last five weeks to bet against those countries in a war of national resistance as Ukraine has fought. Support and aid from the Western world has been essential to Ukraine, no doubt, but the core have been the skill and spirit of Ukrainian troops and people. Plus they seem to have adapted pretty quickly to Russian tactics (perhaps because they know what to expect?) and to still have a coherent state and military. Of all those countries I would have thought that Ukraine was the most vulnerable.

I think it's the US assistance, or lack thereof, that is absolutely critical.   Particularly in terms of intelligence.  I'm convinced the US is feeding Ukraine with all manners of intelligence about Russian plans and movements - both human intelligence, signals intelligence.

If the US government refused to get involved in any way it would be a game-changer, no matter how well a Poland/Finland/Baltics/Ukraine alliance was prepared.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe - though on that bolded point I meant because Ukraine's been fighting for 8 years plus their military came from the same source of the Russians. So they know what to expect in terms of approach and tactic rather than intelligence. Hadn't been thinking about that but you could be right.

[Barrister]

Saw this unsourced earlier on Twitter, but now at least confirmed by a blue check "independent journalist" who cites the governor of Odessa region:

Russian missile cruiser Moskva (Moscow) has been hit and severely damaged.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1514330567671783430

This is great propaganda if true - this is the vessel the Ukrainians at Snake Island told to "go fuck yourself".

[viper37]

Do they even make the bulk of prostitutes here in the West? Eastern Europeans in general were in demand for porn and most likely prostitution after the fall of the Communist bloc because they were often very poor and worked for cheap.  Nowadays, is that still the case?

[viper37]

So I'm seeing reported that LePen is saying that she wants to facilitate a strategic reconciliation between NATO and Russia "as soon as the war is over". And furthermore, she's doubtful about providing military aid to Ukraine.

Fuck, I hope the people of France do the right thing here and not elect her.

Macron is highly unpopular.  
 
I have seen many on the left boast that they would not vote for Macron on the 2nd round, as he's an horrible right winger (if only!)

And then Marine Le Pen went to the 2nd round...

And perspectives changed...

He may not do an El Chi's score of 80%, but he'll win the 2nd round for sure.

In any case, if it wasn't tragic that such far left movement are so damn popular, it'd be funny to see the daughter of a renowned fascist calling for the left to vote for her to defend the Republic.

[DGuller]

Do they even make the bulk of prostitutes here in the West? Eastern Europeans in general were in demand for porn and most likely prostitution after the fall of the Communist bloc because they were often very poor and worked for cheap.  Nowadays, is that still the case?

This tangent is not where I was going when I used the word "chill" quite ironically. 

The nonchalant inhumanity on display from "innocent" Russian citizens is something I grasp intellectually, but can't grasp emotionally.  So many fucked up things in that one conversation.

[Zanza]

I think Germany's commitment to re-armament and confronting Russia is sincere. But I also think such a thing will take many years to see to fruition, and how sincere they are could very well change over time when this crisis is less prominently front and center.

There is a fairly high chance that Germany will not keep its re-armament commitments in the next years. We will do more than in the past, but maybe still not passing the famous 2% or really spending a one off 100 billion. Germany is still pacifist.
On the other hand, moving away from Russian fossil fuels is bound to stay as it fits with the overall policy targets regarding climate change anyway.

[Malthus]

For the sake of a possibly dumb argument, say France and the US are led by Putin-friendly presidents in a few years and Germany decides to recoil back into pacifism: Would a coalition of eastern European states (Poland, Baltics, Finland, free Ukraine) develop? Would they be able to resist a Russian aggression by themselves?

Alarmingly not a non-zero chance (although I actually think Germany's shift is more permanent and substantial than that)

I'd not be inclined after the last five weeks to bet against those countries in a war of national resistance as Ukraine has fought. Support and aid from the Western world has been essential to Ukraine, no doubt, but the core have been the skill and spirit of Ukrainian troops and people. Plus they seem to have adapted pretty quickly to Russian tactics (perhaps because they know what to expect?) and to still have a coherent state and military. Of all those countries I would have thought that Ukraine was the most vulnerable.

I think it's the US assistance, or lack thereof, that is absolutely critical.  Particularly in terms of intelligence.  I'm convinced the US is feeding Ukraine with all manners of intelligence about Russian plans and movements - both human intelligence, signals intelligence.

If the US government refused to get involved in any way it would be a game-changer, no matter how well a Poland/Finland/Baltics/Ukraine alliance was prepared.

True, but it is hard to separate out the elements that have been most important to relative Ukrainian military success.

From my reading, I would say those elements are as follows:

- morale, the Ukrainian soldiers are fighting for their national existence at the least, and perhaps for their physical existence as a people as well; the Russian soldiers are less motivated.

- the reform of the Ukrainian army - which has created a professional NCO/junior officer class; the Russians are allegedly very weak in this respect.

- logistical support from the West - cash and weapons.

- military intelligence, mostly from the US.

All of these have been important. I would say without the morale difference and military reform, all the logistical support and military intelligence in the world could not have saved the Ukrainians; the question is, though, whether the reverse is true - could a Ukraine that had the morale and reform advantage survive, without the logistical support and intelligence provided by the US, France and Germany?

I guess in that scenario they would still be getting some logistical support from Poland etc.

[Maladict]

Saw this unsourced earlier on Twitter, but now at least confirmed by a blue check "independent journalist" who cites the governor of Odessa region:

Russian missile cruiser Moskva (Moscow) has been hit and severely damaged.

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1514330567671783430

This is great propaganda if true - this is the vessel the Ukrainians at Snake Island told to "go fuck yourself".

It's also by far the largest ship in the Black Sea Fleet, as well as its flagship. Good job, Ukrainians.