Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

So the videos of Tucker Carlson visiting Russian supermarkets and the Moscow Metro give very, very strong useful idiot/Walter Duranty vibes - not least because he is marvelling over literally the same Metro stations that 1930s useful idiots also visited.

Edit: It's very "all them cornfields, and ballet in the evening."

And I expect he's seeing it as a victory for precisely the opposite ideology the 30s visitors were.

[Legbiter]

So the videos of Tucker Carlson visiting Russian supermarkets and the Moscow Metro give very, very strong useful idiot/Walter Duranty vibes - not least because he is marvelling over literally the same Metro stations that 1930s useful idiots also visited.

Edit: It's very "all them cornfields, and ballet in the evening."

Went to a burger chain as well. Wealthy American stunting on poor thirdies with his purchasing power. 

[Tamas]

Navalny has died in prison.

[Maladict]

And Avdiivka is being evacuated. Not a great day.

[Caliga]

Navalny has died in prison.

I wonder if he accidentally fell out a window or down a flight of stairs like all of the coincidentally very clumsy opposition figures in Russia?

[Josquius]

Now you know why prison windows usually have bars.

[DGuller]

He just collapsed while walking outside.  It wasn't clarified whether he was shot at from the guard tower.

[Legbiter]

He just collapsed while walking outside.  It wasn't clarified whether he was shot at from the guard tower.

Strelkov's wife rushed out a statement insisting he has no health problems...

[Josquius]

One thing I don't get.
A lot of commentators are saying Russia doesn't care about casualties because what is 400k next to the millions lost in ww2
But... This seems weird to me.
The UK didnt lose nearly as many in the war but still quite a lot- and today even a tiny number of dead would be a disaster.

Then there's Afghanistan too. It was too many casualties and mothers pressure which made the difference there.

Is there anything to these ww2 comparisons - certainly the fascist government has been building up ww2s place in culture a fair bit - or are people just looking for excuses for how Russia are getting away with such eye watering casualty numbers.

Compared to modern western casualty numbers in our conflicts they're bigger by a much larger scale than comparing our respective ww2 deaths.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think there's anything to the WW2 comparisons. That was a war of defence against an invading enemy who thought the peoples of the Soviet Union were racial inferiors who either needed to become a slave class or, ultimately, killed.

I think there's a fair bit to Afghanistan (although I'm just reading, almost finished Svetlana Alexievich's Boys in Zinc so that may help shape that view). There are differences - not least the scale of casualties. But there are a lot of echoes.

Ultimately I think the WW2 comparisons are to do with the legitimacy of the modern Russian state (and before it of the Soviet Union). And that's understandable (there is, even, a positive national myth there) as legitimation for the state and, as I say, I think they've picked up from the USSR in that respect.

I think Russia is trying to position the war as against the entire West and Russian soldiers have far better morale defensively, but I don't think there's real comparisons in terms of the fighting being made. I think it's tying back to that original legitimating national myth of the Great Patriotic War and I think it's possibly important from a home front perspective, especially as the sanctions bite on things like food supply/costs or the amount of Russia's budget going on the war economy (an area of huge difference with Afghanistan).

[DGuller]

First of all, I'm highly skeptical of Russian casualty figures circulated by Ukraine.  These daily sheets with loss numbers have long ago become a source of copium that too many supporters of Ukraine have become addicted to.

That said, Russia without a doubt did suffer a lot of casualties.  I think one key difference between Afghanistan and Ukraine is the trajectory of internal politics.  USSR was opening up under Gorbachev, which made it possible for mothers to express their dissatisfaction with the life expectancy their serving sons achieved.  Putin's regime, on the other hand, is tightening screws, and by now may well be more repressive than any Soviet regime since Stalin's times.

It still sucks for Russian mothers, but that's just life.  Life sucks in Russia if you're not among the elites, you just have to accept that reality and hope to become an elite so that you can make the life of others suck.  What else can you do?

[Jacob]

Saw some analysis that said that Russia is having success in rebuilding the reserves that have been so depleted in the attack on Ukraine, and that this is the reason we're seeing so many European defense leaders and ministers warning of the high threat from Russia moving forward.

Some of the details:

• Russia has succeeded in recruiting more than 300,000 soldiers, which is likely more than it has lost.
• Ambitions are to expand the armed forces from 500,000 to 1,500,000 over time.
• Russia is doing fairly well at circumventing sanctions via dual use or third party imports.

[Jacob]

One of my favourite analysts posted a video on potential timelines for a possible Russian attack on NATO:

The analysis suggests that most current estimates are based on the assumption that any such attack will come after the war in Ukraine more or less wraps up. However, another possibility is that an attack on a NATO member could earlier, precisely because the intention is to weaken NATO coherence and undermine European support for Ukraine (in practical terms).

My understanding of the scenario is:

1. The US elects a government that signals it won't support Ukraine, and sows doubt about its commitment to NATO.

2. Russia attacks somewhere where the US government (and possible other governments, but the US is the main one) feels comfortable saying "yeah, we won't respond to that."

3. Europeans and Russians then essentially consider NATO a dead letter. Given Russian belligerence, European nations will have to increase the priority of rapidly improving their own defense capabilities. In practical terms, this will mean that materiel that could've gone to Ukraine (and may even have been promised already) is held beck to improve individual European homeland security. So while Europe would like to maintain (or even increase) support for Ukraine in such a scenario, it will be practically unable to.

As such, there's a real risk that Russia will attack a European NATO member earlier than most pessimistic two-year timevframe suggested by some governments - certainly it's real enough that it might be worthwhile to plan against.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeah, saw it too. War in our lifetimes.
I've already accepted that chance my kid will be drafted at one point is quite high.
Doesn't mean I made peace with it, on the contrary. I'm quite pissed at our politicians for their ineptitude.

[Legbiter]

Ukrainians will have to stay on the defensive this year and give ground as slowly as they can.