Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Grey Fox]

Because we will fight our war in the air.

[barkdreg]

I'll have you know some of that military spending is welfare! (I think it's Belgium where over half of the defence budget goes on pensions )

Pensions and wages.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the Czechs have "discovered" 800,000 shells but will need international help/cash to deliver it to Ukraine.

On the one hand it's very good news, on the other I have questions

[PJL]

800.000 sounds a lot but it's only really 3 months worth of ammo. If we want Ukraine to win and to restock our reserves, NATO needs to sustain a production of several million a year. Given the war isn't going to end anytime soon, I can't see why we can't give at least 5 year contracts for production at that rate in total.

[Josquius]

Apparently the Czechs have "discovered" 800,000 shells but will need international help/cash to deliver it to Ukraine.

On the one hand it's very good news, on the other I have questions

Yeah... Lots of possibilities there. Very weird. If I were Czech I'd be asking serious questions of how the (s)hell the government lost them

On the other hand if it was Albania suddenly discovering them the yes. I'd believe they just did that.

Kazakhstan or someone donating to hurt Russia without wanting to get the blame?

[Threviel]

Seeing as they request financial assistance with the deal it does not seem to be an old forgotten Warsaw pact warehouse in Brno or something. Presumably they've vacuumed the world market and that's the number of shells they've scrounged up. It seems to be a mixture of Western and Soviet ammo, the majority 155 mm and then some 122 mm.

I would guess that after that the world market will have been emptied of easily available ammo, giving Europe a few months to get production going, which our beloved politicians will fail at doing.

[Zoupa]

The Czech shell story: these are not shells suddenly found in storage in Prague. Through their contacts in the defense industry worldwide, they have a line on 500k 155 mm shells and 300k 122 mm shells outside of NATO/EU countries.

Most indicators point to South Africa. They need the $, but don't want to publicize it due to ties to russia. I doubt it'll happen if it is from South Africa, as putin will just offer more money for them not to deliver those.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't remember South Africa ever buying Russian arms.

[Sheilbh]

South Africa is a bit like Brazil on this. BRICS, Russian investment in mines and historic links from the ANC to the Soviets and then Russia. Plus I think they, like India and China and Brazil are pretty revisionist about the "world order" - doesn't mean they'll all align on everything, but sometimes.

[Sheilbh]

Fairly sobering thread from Lithuania's Foreign Minister leaving the Munich Security Conference:
https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1759271051177943311?s=20

[Jacob]

Summary for those of us to consume Muskite social media?

[Sheilbh]

Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹
@GLandsbergis
During the Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here's how it is: Things are not going well. 🧵

It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵
Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, Europe is facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by Russia's action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact. 🧵
Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against Russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won't admit there is an urgent need? 🧵
And we need action right now, because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it's far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake. 🧵
I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that Russia's industrial power is no match for the united West. But... 🧵
We don't lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support Ukraine and maintain our collective security. Russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy Ukraine and reestablish the Russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this? 🧵
Currently we are an open book to our adversary - clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness. 🧵
Strategically the goal should be to change Putin's calculations. Disrupt the field. I know it's not easy, but it is better to admit mistakes and chart a new path forward, rather than to engage in empty self-congratulation.

So yes, I am returning from Munich a bit gloomy. 🧵

A lot of what we're saying here - but unusual from a sitting Foreign Minister, especially as he's leaving the Davos of Euro-Atlantic security policy.

And as Threviel says this is for something that, in Europe, has overwhelming popular support.

[Josquius]

On the bright side what I've read suggests that at Munich his view was quite common and signs were that Europe was finally waking up and 'getting it'.

Of course agreeing they have to change and actually doing it are very different things...we've been here before.

[Sheilbh]

Yes - although I feel like we've been waking up and getting it for a while.

Also I saw another anonymous European diplomat comment that just drove me crazy - they described the US as a "fat buffalo trying to take a nap" as hungry wolves approach, noting they "can hear those champagne (Shampanskoye?) popping in Moscow - like it's Christmas every fucking day". Like, yes. Fine. But Europe's a lot closer to Moscow than the US and we're still in the shadow of that fat buffalo for our own security in Europe If that's their anonymous view of the US, I'd love to hear their take on Europe.

Also I think since 2008 at least there's been a fairly steady drumbeat from DC that they want to disengage from the Middle East and Europe and focus on Asia because China's a bigger challenger for them than Russia. And we're here instead.

[Grey Fox]

Western democracy needs to lose before finding the will to win.

I wonder what the world will look like when Russia, China & the USA are going to be on the same autocratic hill(side).