Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Brain]

I don't follow.

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

If Cummins cancels the license, either because it's not allowed by sanctions or on its own accord, and the Russian factory ignores this, then Russian credibility as a business partner suffers further damage, which in its own little way will contribute to making Russia more of a pariah state. It may not be an earth-shattering event, but I don't see it as meaningless.

[Admiral Yi]

If Cummins cancels the license, either because it's not allowed by sanctions or on its own accord, and the Russian factory ignores this, then Russian credibility as a business partner suffers further damage, which in its own little way will contribute to making Russia more of a pariah state. It may not be an earth-shattering event, but I don't see it as meaningless.

Aren't we pretty much past that point?

[crazy canuck]

I don't follow.

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

The obligations contained within that piece of paper often provide for the licensor to provide things which allows the licensee to carry on the business.  In this case probably most of the parts.  There are circumstances where someone is just giving a license to use their name alone but I doubt very much that is the case here.

[crazy canuck]

I don't follow.

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

If Cummins cancels the license, either because it's not allowed by sanctions or on its own accord, and the Russian factory ignores this, then Russian credibility as a business partner suffers further damage, which in its own little way will contribute to making Russia more of a pariah state. It may not be an earth-shattering event, but I don't see it as meaningless.

If the Russians are able to machine their own parts to make the engine - there was no need for the license agreement in the first place. Yi has gone wrong in thinking it is just rights to a name here.  BB got it right when he realized parts would need to come from someplace.

[The Brain]

No, but if major NATO countries have defensive alliances with Ukraine it's already WW3, which might discourage future Russian invasions.

Yeah I see what you're saying.

Like, say, if Ukraine and US make a defensive alliance that's not NATO but probably fairly discouraging for Russia.

Yeah. I mean, there are several reasons why I think such a scenario is fairly unlikely, but it's always interesting to see which pieces could theoretically come into play.

[Sheilbh]

Aren't we pretty much past that point?

I think so. For example most airplanes are owned by shell companies based in Ireland - that goes for Russian fleets as well. I think Russia's technically meant to allow those planes to be seized but has prepared legislation to just nationalise - altogether worth $10 billion.

Yeah I see what you're saying.

Like, say, if Ukraine and US make a defensive alliance that's not NATO but probably fairly discouraging for Russia.

But that very much depends who's in a defensive alliance. Not all NATO allies are equal. If it's the US theyn it's a huge risk, if it's the UK or France then it's a risk, but if it's, Lithuania or even Poland, unless Russia deliberately expands that conflict to their home territory it's probably not a huge risk of either triggering a nuclear exchange or a wider NATO conflict.

[Zoupa]

Press mute before clicking on the link, annoying music.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503755688174047234?s=20&t=IrTki6KrbJwMqTvHJ1u0dQ

Who on earth is training these guys? Russian tank, seemingly by itself, driving down a country road. No support. Gets blown up immediately, AT or mine.

I know you guys said they see their armor as replaceable but jesus christ. The loss of life and investment is staggering. I keep seeing UA soldiers saying "thank God the Russians are so stupid, it makes the fight more even". Now I believe it.

[Duque de Bragança]

Meanwhile, the city of Hannover was moving to rescind Gerhard Schröder's honorary citizenship. He was chairman of the SPD in Hannover since the 80s, and was minister president of Lower Saxony in Hannover from 1990-98, leading into his chancellorship.

However, he's now written to the city, saying he resigns from his honorary citizenship of the city, and that he will not comment on their allegations.

I remember someone who lived in Germany in the Schröder period telling me what a total slimebag he was. Don't remember what the assessment was based on exactly, but it was certainly correct.

Hartz IV? 

[The Brain]

If Cummins cancels the license, either because it's not allowed by sanctions or on its own accord, and the Russian factory ignores this, then Russian credibility as a business partner suffers further damage, which in its own little way will contribute to making Russia more of a pariah state. It may not be an earth-shattering event, but I don't see it as meaningless.

Aren't we pretty much past that point?

Past the point where we want to make Russia a pariah state? I don't think so, especially because of long-term effects. My fear is that business with Russia will be considered kosher again after the war. It is good if Russia remains toxic as a business partner for a long time.

[The Brain]

I don't follow.

As Beeb said above.  A license is a piece of paper.  If the Cummins guy calls up People's Factory #93 and tells them to stop producing, it won't have much effect.

Unless they rely on imported parts.

Though I suppose even in case A Cummins should formally cancel the license and forego any royalties.

If Cummins cancels the license, either because it's not allowed by sanctions or on its own accord, and the Russian factory ignores this, then Russian credibility as a business partner suffers further damage, which in its own little way will contribute to making Russia more of a pariah state. It may not be an earth-shattering event, but I don't see it as meaningless.

If the Russians are able to machine their own parts to make the engine - there was no need for the license agreement in the first place.

Because there's something special about Russia, or because of something else?

[Admiral Yi]

Past the point where we want to make Russia a pariah state? I don't think so, especially because of long-term effects. My fear is that business with Russia will be considered kosher again after the war. It is good if Russia remains toxic as a business partner for a long time.

Past the point where Russia is concerned about protecting a reputation where investment is governed by the rule of law.

[The Brain]

Press mute before clicking on the link, annoying music.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503755688174047234?s=20&t=IrTki6KrbJwMqTvHJ1u0dQ

Who on earth is training these guys? Russian tank, seemingly by itself, driving down a country road. No support. Gets blown up immediately, AT or mine.

I know you guys said they see their armor as replaceable but jesus christ. The loss of life and investment is staggering. I keep seeing UA soldiers saying "thank God the Russians are so stupid, it makes the fight more even". Now I believe it.

Interesting use of Sabaton music, a band that played in occupied Crimea in 2015 at a show organized by pro-Putin biker gang Night Wolves.

[Barrister]

Past the point where we want to make Russia a pariah state? I don't think so, especially because of long-term effects. My fear is that business with Russia will be considered kosher again after the war. It is good if Russia remains toxic as a business partner for a long time.

Past the point where Russia is concerned about protecting a reputation where investment is governed by the rule of law.

Yeah, this is where I struggle to see how there can be a negotiated settlement.

The one demand Putin would have on any peace deal would be the lifting of sanctions and a return to normal.  But how can there be a return to normal after Russia has done this?  Even putting aside state actions what private company is going to invest in Russia now?

[The Brain]

Past the point where we want to make Russia a pariah state? I don't think so, especially because of long-term effects. My fear is that business with Russia will be considered kosher again after the war. It is good if Russia remains toxic as a business partner for a long time.

Past the point where Russia is concerned about protecting a reputation where investment is governed by the rule of law.

I don't follow. I described what happens if Russia keeps manufacturing without the license, ie when it doesn't care about its reputation or rule of law.

[Jacob]

Past the point where we want to make Russia a pariah state? I don't think so, especially because of long-term effects. My fear is that business with Russia will be considered kosher again after the war. It is good if Russia remains toxic as a business partner for a long time.

Yeah, I was thinking about that this morning.

Let's say there's a negotiated settlement where, say, Russia gets Donbass and whatever security guarantees Ukraine agrees on, what happens with the sanctions?

Personally I think that unless Russia folds in complete defeat, we should keep the sanctions strong notwithstanding any peace agreement. Russia has essentially declared a civilizational war against the West and the Ukraine invasion is just the first battle. I see no reason that a strategy of engagement is useful at this point.