Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

I think we're getting sidetracked. Let's get back to the real issues, like trans athletes and why wokeism is so so so very important.

Wrong thread mate.

It's never the wrong thread for Zoups.

[grumbler]

What's been cool to see from afar is how Ukraine seems to be developing more of a culture of a national ideal based on shared values, rather than based on language or ethnic identity.  Those values being freedom, democracy, and a European identity.  There appears to be a complete collapse of pro-Russian sentiment within Ukraine even amongst Russian speakers, and you see people from other former soviet republics come to Ukraine to fight for those ideals.

But of course that also goes to show how much of a threat a free Ukraine is to Putin...

Yes, that is the most surprising development for me.  I was pretty sure the Ukrainian resistance would be badly hampered by Fifth Column efforts, and am delighted to be so wrong.

[mongers]

Amongst all of the bluster/posturing from Putin, Lavrov and the Russians, is there a danger as their occupation of Ukraine continues to fail, that we'll not 'notice' nuclear brinkmanship* from Putin and the first we'll know about it is one or a few tactical nukes going off in the Ukraine and/or on NATO's borders? 


* I'm discounting chemical weapons attacks on the battlefield, that I think are far more likely as Putin clutches at straw to save his invasion, but I don't think they'll have impact on the West that nukes will, chemical attacks could be seen as another, all be it worse battlefield atrocity  inflicted on Ukrainians.

[Malthus]

What's been cool to see from afar is how Ukraine seems to be developing more of a culture of a national ideal based on shared values, rather than based on language or ethnic identity.  Those values being freedom, democracy, and a European identity.  There appears to be a complete collapse of pro-Russian sentiment within Ukraine even amongst Russian speakers, and you see people from other former soviet republics come to Ukraine to fight for those ideals.

But of course that also goes to show how much of a threat a free Ukraine is to Putin...

Yes, that is the most surprising development for me.  I was pretty sure the Ukrainian resistance would be badly hampered by Fifth Column efforts, and am delighted to be so wrong.

I think most of us in the West - and, more importantly, many in Russia - underestimated how much Ukrainian self-identity had changed since Russia's seizure of Crimea and the "republics".

Used to be quite a more pronounced difference in self identity, with Orthodox/Russian speakers/those more recently moved into Ukraine by Russia did not necessarily self-identify as "Ukrainian".

From what I've seen (admittedly, much filtered through my in-laws), this has changed a lot, and in a short time.

To give an example: I was at a wedding last year with a lot of recent immigrants from Eastern Ukraine (the bride was from the western part, a relation of my wife) - they were speaking Russian and Ukrainian interchangeably and listening to Russian pop music, which was pretty surprising - as they were all very nationalist Ukrainians. A decade earlier it may well have been different, those from the east whose primary language was Russian may have considered themselves "Russians".

One anecdote does not data make, but it accords with what I've read elsewhere.

By invading, Putin has caused a kind of revision of identity. He has caused lots of people who may formerly have considered themselves "Russian" to instead consider themselves "Ukrainian". The fact that they speak Russian as a language isn't so important anymore, having Russian as one's first language isn't a strong indicator of self identity (President Zelenskyy's first language was Russian).

This has had important implications - such as very little internal support for Putin's invasion. There were supporters, but rather than being seen as motivated by sincere identity with Russia, they tend to be seen as venal traitors selling out for Russian cash.

[Legbiter]

The Ukrainians have pushed the Russians 40 km east away from Kharkiv. 

[grumbler]

The Ukrainians have pushed the Russians 40 km east away from Kharkiv. 

If that can draw off enough Russian forces, the encirclement of Izyum could succeed.  It's hard to tell whether the Russian offensive south from Izyum is succeeding faster than the Ukrainian offensive north of Izyum.  If the Ukrainians break Izyum, the Russian offensive is over.

[Barrister]

The Ukrainians have pushed the Russians 40 km east away from Kharkiv. 

Some Twitter reports the Ukrainians are making slow but steady progress on Kherson in the south.

I hope it's true.

[celedhring]

Today in Russia: talking head goes on about Gachimuchi porn in Russian state TV.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uhhesk/outjerked_once_again/

[Legbiter]

Today in Russia: talking head goes on about Gachimuchi porn in Russian state TV.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uhhesk/outjerked_once_again/

It's a funny riff on the old degenerate West versus spiritual salt-of-the-earth Russia. The reality is exactly opposite but it plays well.

[Legbiter]

If that can draw off enough Russian forces, the encirclement of Izyum could succeed.  It's hard to tell whether the Russian offensive south from Izyum is succeeding faster than the Ukrainian offensive north of Izyum.  If the Ukrainians break Izyum, the Russian offensive is over.

Yeah I think the Russians are in deep shit with this offensive. Even if Putin orders mobilization these forces won't be available for some time while Ukraine ramps up.

[Tamas]

Apparently Hungary's position on the new proposed EU embargo on Russian oil is that they could support it only if it did not apply to oil purchased through pipelines. 

In other words the only way the can support an oil embargo if it does not embargo oil.

[Razgovory]

Contact has been lost with the defenders of Mariupol.  The city has finally fallen.  The siege has tied up a lot of Russian forces needed elsewhere so their sacrifice was not in vain.

[Josquius]

Hoping for some nice surprises in their victory parade.

[Jacob]

Contact has been lost with the defenders of Mariupol.  The city has finally fallen.  The siege has tied up a lot of Russian forces needed elsewhere so their sacrifice was not in vain.

Those defenders were absolutely heroic in their defence of Azovstal.

[grumbler]

Contact has been lost with the defenders of Mariupol.  The city has finally fallen.  The siege has tied up a lot of Russian forces needed elsewhere so their sacrifice was not in vain.

Those defenders were absolutely heroic in their defence of Azovstal.

Yeah, the Azov Regiment guys probably knew what capture would mean so had an incentive to fight to the death, but the marines and other army troops fought just as hard and didn't have that motivation.  It was probably lack of supplies that ultimately did them in.