Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Jacob]

Interesting line of thinking re: Putin & general mobilization: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1521803362152374274

Essentially the argument is: unless Putin has lost complete touch with reality on the ground (which is possible, and hard to determine), a good course of action for the Russians is to declare victory based on 1) de-Nazifying Ukraine by destroying the Azov regiment, 2) "saving" Russian minority by holding on to current possession in Donetsk and Luhansk, and 3) de-militarizing Ukraine based on the damage to date on the Ukrainian military. This could fly domestically due to his control of the media and the current state of the propaganda messaging.

If Russia digs into current holdings, blow the bridges, and continue to strangle the Ukrainian economy via port blockades and terrorize Ukraine with sporadic missile attacks, then Putin may believe he could extract concessions from Zelenskyy.

If this does come to pass, it'd see an interesting and whole new phase of the war where Ukraine would be on the attack to regain territory, have to negotiate a settlement with Russia, or attempt to carry on with a frozen conflict. It'd be a new phase for the West as well.

Or maybe Putin does go all in. We'll see. But an interesting perspective IMO.

[Sheilbh]

I think the withdrawal from Kyiv and focus on Donbas indicates Putin is getting at least semi-reliable information and adjusting to reality. In a way, though negatively, a general mobilisation and actually declaring war would be similar.

[Barrister]

Interesting tweetstrm from Kamil Galeev.  Suggests that because this is only a "Special Operation", soldiers are able to quit / refuse to serve in Ukraine with only moderate consequences (inability to hold government jobs in future).  Which explains the rationale why Putin might order a war / general mobilization.

Also has a side of his hatred for Navalny.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1521850468313579520

[Jacob]

On the fall of Mariupol and Azovstal...

I recall when the war started - I think it was the very first hours, basically - the CBC did a remote interview with someone in Mariupol - a young, skinny European guy with a floppy haircut. This was before Zelenskyy had made any of his statements and when everyone (in the West at least), more or less assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine.

They guy was recounting the situation. How he was packing his bags, looking after his parents, and so on. When the host ask what he'd do next he said "after this call my girlfriend and I will meet some friends at the main square in town, and we'll volunteer for the territorial defense."

I wonder where he is now. I hope he is well, but I expect he is not.

[The Minsky Moment]

Interesting tweetstrm from Kamil Galeev.  Suggests that because this is only a "Special Operation", soldiers are able to quit / refuse to serve in Ukraine with only moderate consequences (inability to hold government jobs in future). 

Some interesting things to say on Lenin, the Tsar and Revolution as well.

[Barrister]

Interesting tweetstrm from Kamil Galeev.  Suggests that because this is only a "Special Operation", soldiers are able to quit / refuse to serve in Ukraine with only moderate consequences (inability to hold government jobs in future). 

Some interesting things to say on Lenin, the Tsar and Revolution as well.

This guy is very odd on Twitter.  He takes his time with his tweetstorms - this one has been going for 3 hours now, well after I first posted the link.

Yeah, he goes on to say that while he thinks the odd of some kind of coup or civil war is basically zero at this point, the odds become non-zero if Putin starts arming hundreds of thousands of conscripts who hang around the capital.

[celedhring]

On the fall of Mariupol and Azovstal...

I recall when the war started - I think it was the very first hours, basically - the CBC did a remote interview with someone in Mariupol - a young, skinny European guy with a floppy haircut. This was before Zelenskyy had made any of his statements and when everyone (in the West at least), more or less assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine.

They guy was recounting the situation. How he was packing his bags, looking after his parents, and so on. When the host ask what he'd do next he said "after this call my girlfriend and I will meet some friends at the main square in town, and we'll volunteer for the territorial defense."

I wonder where he is now. I hope he is well, but I expect he is not.

I recall during the run-up to the war, the Catalan TV did this segment interviewing people from the Ukrainian diaspora. When asked what they would do in case of a war, the males would nearly always respond "go back and take up arms". I was surprised (these were people living here and that could easily avoid the war).

[Tamas]

RIP Mariupol defenders. We may look back later and conclude they won the war for Ukraine - in the early phase the south was the only place the Russians advanced at and a lot of them had to be tied down by the siege.


A couple of days ago I saw an ethnic Hungarian university math professor from Ukraine reporting in remotely to the Hungarian Academy of Sciences where he was supposed to present some thesis/study he did. But, even though he was never conscripted so he was not going to be called up as a reservist, he volunteered and have been serving in the army. You could hear artillery shelling in the background while he was discussing math theory from some bunker.

[Jacob]

Interesting tweetstrm from Kamil Galeev.  Suggests that because this is only a "Special Operation", soldiers are able to quit / refuse to serve in Ukraine with only moderate consequences (inability to hold government jobs in future). 

Some interesting things to say on Lenin, the Tsar and Revolution as well.

Yeah I find Kamil Kazani's analysis very interesting. Definitely a novel perspective to me. What he says about Russia's internal functions is quite illuminating and seems plausible... and he certainly states it with great conviction.

[Barrister]

The fall of Mariupol and Azovstal has been announced multiple times already.  I've seen at least one source saying Azovstal has not fallen.  I'm not prepared to accept that it has just yet.

[Zoupa]

On the fall of Mariupol and Azovstal...

I recall when the war started - I think it was the very first hours, basically - the CBC did a remote interview with someone in Mariupol - a young, skinny European guy with a floppy haircut. This was before Zelenskyy had made any of his statements and when everyone (in the West at least), more or less assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine.

They guy was recounting the situation. How he was packing his bags, looking after his parents, and so on. When the host ask what he'd do next he said "after this call my girlfriend and I will meet some friends at the main square in town, and we'll volunteer for the territorial defense."

I wonder where he is now. I hope he is well, but I expect he is not.

Comms restored, attacks are being repelled.

They're still in the fight.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1521902191937830913?s=20&t=DIAIwHFfhb51d5rF-wwcgQ

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I find Kamil Kazani's analysis very interesting. Definitely a novel perspective to me. What he says about Russia's internal functions is quite illuminating and seems plausible... and he certainly states it with great conviction.

FWIW I've seen a fair amount of pushback from Russia experts around his threads - I'm not sure if it's just specific ones or more general.

[Jacob]

On the fall of Mariupol and Azovstal...

I recall when the war started - I think it was the very first hours, basically - the CBC did a remote interview with someone in Mariupol - a young, skinny European guy with a floppy haircut. This was before Zelenskyy had made any of his statements and when everyone (in the West at least), more or less assumed Russia would roll over Ukraine.

They guy was recounting the situation. How he was packing his bags, looking after his parents, and so on. When the host ask what he'd do next he said "after this call my girlfriend and I will meet some friends at the main square in town, and we'll volunteer for the territorial defense."

I wonder where he is now. I hope he is well, but I expect he is not.

Comms restored, attacks are being repelled.

They're still in the fight.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1521902191937830913?s=20&t=DIAIwHFfhb51d5rF-wwcgQ

[Barrister]

Today's feel-good but highly dubious news:

Kremlin coup rumours growing in Moscow: Disgruntled generals join FSB looking to oust Putin and end Ukraine war
BY:MICHIEL WILLEMS


Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia's president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.

The top of Putin's former employer – the Russian security service FSB – is said to be so frustrated about the lack of military progress in Ukraine that it has reached out to a number of generals and former army officials, according to various analysts and local media reports.

In particular a group called the 'Siloviki' – which comprises of former FSB officers who are active in Russian politics – is said to be pushing hard to replace Putin, together with former officers from the GRU, KGB and FSO, other Russian intelligence units.


The idea a coup may be increasingly likely is further strengthened by social media activity across Russia and Eastern Europe, which has gone into overdrive in the last 24 hours.

Moreover, analysts in and outside Russia have said all signs are there that Putin will face a coup soon.


Putin to 'lay the groundwork for an announcement to cover his failure' and admit Ukraine is a war


The Russian president is reportedly "very worried" and has tightened security in and around the Kremlin.

"Does it matter? It matters a lot," said Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov told The Center for European Policy Analysis.

"The Russian President has been bracing for a coup for some weeks as has faced fierce criticism over his "special operation" in Ukraine and he has purged around 150 of his spies over the constant failures," Soldatov explained.


"This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the President. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities."

Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov
Moreover, rumours are also going round Putin's health has taken a hit since the start of the war. On a number of videos the Russian president looks tired and irritated.

Growing tensions between FSB and Kremlin
It has become evident that the relationship between the FSB and Putin has deteriorated since the start of the war.

Last month, two senior officers in the FB, were put under house arrest by Putin.

Andrei Soldatov who runs, the well-informed investigative website Agentura, reported that Sergei Beseda, the head of the Fifth Service – the FSB's foreign intelligence branch – and his deputy had been detained and put under house arrest.

The move was seen as a clear sign Putin is deeply concerned about the FSB's role in the offensive against Ukraine and he fears forces within the intelligence apparatus may be working against him, Western officials told the Agentura platform.


"Both men have played a major role in intelligence operations against Ukraine for several years and highly likely played a major role in the planning for the invasion," one said.

"There could be significant changes at senior levels in the FSB."


Russian analyst Alexey Muraviev is also convinced that the Russian President is facing a coup from his top military and intelligence chiefs.

Muraviev told Sky News Australia that an attempt to remove Putin may be extremely likely because "I think that there have been tensions between Russia and the intelligence community and Russia's President Vladimir Putin."

"Clearly, there's been a clear error of judgment that was made and it was probably driven by Putin himself about the situation in Ukraine."

Russian analyst Alexey Muraviev
"I think that sort of false narrative was presented to them by the Supreme Commander in Chief, and when it fired back when the Russians began taking heavy casualties, Putin began quietly blaming the security services," he continued.


"I don't think went really well also because he's coming from within the security apparatus."

"About the initial planning and the initial phase of the invasion where the Russian military naturally assume that they're going there as liberators rather than the invaders," he explained.

When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment.

https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/

CityAM is a London based free newspaper.  It's not complete garbage, but hardly the source of cutting edge news from inside the Russian government.

But I want to believe it, so I post it here.

[Jacob]

Two things on that article:

1) I believe CityAM is Daily Mail affiliated paper, which speaks to the journalistic standard (though I do really appreciate the last line "When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment." ).

2) There's no guarantee that whoever may replace Putin won't be worse.