Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Makes sense. Russian engineering is so shitty their ships can't handle a mid-grade storm without sinking.

[Sheilbh]

Makes sense. Russian engineering is so shitty their ships can't handle a mid-grade storm without sinking.

Yeah - I saw this doing the rounds earlier (during the last excuse):

[DGuller]

Is there a reason why you wouldn't have measures in place to prevent the warship's ammunition from cooking off during a storm?  It seems like this is the kind of vulnerability that would be pretty limiting to the overall combat effectiveness of the warship.

[The Brain]

Is there a reason why you wouldn't have measures in place to prevent the warship's ammunition from cooking off during a storm?  It seems like this is the kind of vulnerability that would be pretty limiting to the overall combat effectiveness of the warship.

I don't think there is an easy way to explain this to a layman such as yourself.

[Legbiter]

Link to Tass:

Kevin Rothrock
@KevinRothrock
The Moskva has officially sunk. The Defense Ministry says it happened while trying to tow it back to harbor "due to damage suffered by the hull during a storm."

[Malthus]

I wonder just how big a blow this is to the Russian war effort. To the extent that they rely on supply and attack by sea, I would imagine it would be very significant indeed - quite apart from the propaganda hit.

[celedhring]

I wonder just how big a blow this is to the Russian war effort. To the extent that they rely on supply and attack by sea, I would imagine it would be very significant indeed - quite apart from the propaganda hit.

Well, I don't think the Russians are worrying about Ukrainian ships disrupting their supply efforts. Outside of that, looking at the ship's specs it was a bit of a sea-based AA battery. That was probably valuable.

[The Larch]

[DGuller]

Cruiser submarines are a thing, in fact Russia just got them in the last DLC.

[Malthus]

I wonder just how big a blow this is to the Russian war effort. To the extent that they rely on supply and attack by sea, I would imagine it would be very significant indeed - quite apart from the propaganda hit.

Well, I don't think the Russians are worrying about Ukrainian ships disrupting their supply efforts. Outside of that, looking at the ship's specs it was a bit of a sea-based AA battery. That was probably valuable.

What I was thinking of was the deterrent effect on other Russian ships.

If their flagship was hit, then presumably their other ships are not safe. I read that the Russians were pulling other ships away from the coast.

To the extent the Russians need naval support, this would put a bit of a crimp in their plans. Though I don't know how significant this is.

[Razgovory]

Moving away from the coast is a good way to deter storms.

[Jacob]

Moving away from the coast is a good way to deter storms.

As is moving away from the surface.

[grumbler]

The couple other details I've seen (and again - Twitter, who knows how accurate):

-the Moskva's radar has a 180 degree field of view, which is why the distraction by the Bayraktar could be so important
-the Ukrainian Neptun is brand new, and they only had the one vehicle, with I think 4 missiles.  So the Ukrainians had the patience and discipline while their nation was under full assault to wait a month and a half for the perfect opportunity to use it.

The ship had over a dozen radars on it, some with limited coverage (e.g. the SAM guidance radars were located port and starboard without 360 degree coverage) but several with 360-degree coverage (search and LR fire control).  What is likely is that the Bayaktar focused the Russian attention on it, with fire control radars locked on, and that left the Russians with insufficient watchfulness for other threats.

Each Ukrainian launcher has four missiles, but they have more than one launcher.  The first battery with 4 launchers (16 missiles) was operational by June 2021, and they almost certainly have had deliveries since then.  You are correct, however, that the Ukrainians were patient enough to not reveal the full threat the Neptun posed until they had a good shot at a high-value target.

The Moscow had lots of the latest Russian AA systems and its loss has to greatly concern not just the other Black Sea Fleet sailors and officers, but the High Command.  Neptun can be air-launched and the Russian logistics train at sea could be in real danger (and their southern land offensives exposed by a lack of logistics support).
 

[mongers]

Whilst the sinking of this cruiser is a great coup for the Ukrainians, we shouldn't loose sight of the grinding artillery attacks and occupations atrocities that are devastating so many Ukrainian cities, towns and villages.
This BBC report about the work of the police chief in a Bucha district. Well worth a read, full article here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61085810

Collecting the dead in Bucha
Words and photographs by Joel Gunter
in Bucha, Ukraine

When the Russians retreated from Bucha, a massive operation began to find and document the dead. BBC News joined the local police officers and bereaved families as they carried out their grim task.

Police Chief Vitaliy Lobas was sitting at a child's desk in an abandoned school in Bucha, collecting the details of the bodies.

Every few minutes, Chief Lobas, who has broad shoulders and short dark hair, and rarely uses an unnecessary word, received a call on his mobile phone, and the brief conversations went the same: a location, a few details, a phone number of a relative or friend.

Before the Russians came, Lobas was an ordinary local police chief, the head of Buchanksy District 1, who spent his days dealing with ordinary local crime and the occasional murder. Since the liberation of Bucha, he has spent his days in this abandoned school classroom, where school posters still hang on the walls, coordinating the massive operation to find the dead.

In front of Lobas on the school desk there was a map of Bucha, a once peaceful and little-known suburb of Kyiv that is now a sprawling crime scene. The area was occupied by Russian forces for a month as they attempted to assault Kyiv, and its liberation a little over a week ago has begun a slow and painful process of uncovering horrors.

Each time the phone rang, Lobas consulted the map in front of him, and on a plain piece of paper he wrote down the necessary information in neat handwriting, one line per body. By mid-morning, he had filled one side of A4 and moved on to the reverse. The previous day there had been 64 bodies, he said. The day before, 37. He did not know how many there would be that day, but he was expecting the number to jump by around 40 because a mass grave was being dug up nearby. Lobas is only in charge of one part of this region, and many more bodies are being found outside his jurisdiction.

....

[Jacob]

We're on what? Day 50 of Putin's three day war. The fighting is shifting to Eastern Ukraine.

What do possible end-games look like at this point?

It seems Russia's current plan is to hang on or maybe push forward a bit while the cost of atrocities goes so high that Zelenskyy is willing to negotiate... something... that Putin can sell as a victory to himself and his people. I don't know how likely it is, but let's say it comes to pass... what happens after that? What sort of levels of sanctions do we expect to see? What level of rebuilding aid and military support is likely to remain? How does the world move on?

On the other hand, it's not infeasible that Ukraine eventually pushes Russian forces all the way out - maybe inch by inch or maybe by triggering a general collapse. I assume the Russians will commit more atrocities as they leave. But what then? Will Ukraine stop at the borders? If not, how far will they push and what's the objective? Will Putin accept the defeat and make nice? Or will the undeclared war and chicanery continue in perpetuity? I mean, I could absolutely see Putin peevishly continuing to fire artillery into Ukraine from Russia for quite a long time, just because.

How does the scenario "Ukraine pushes Russia out" develop and eventually wrap up?