Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Big attack on the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. Russia reports minor damage to several ships but then blocks it's own Telegram social media company inside Russia and suspends the grain shipment deal...

[Admiral Yi]

Russia is signaling gradual escalation for every Ukrainian battlefield success.  Now's a good time for a deal.

I would offer UN supervised referenda in the Donbas and Crimea on Russian annexation in exchange for NATO membership.  Free movement of people for some fixed time period that want to immigrate either direction.

Say the offer is valid for two weeks, as the battlefield is still fluid and terms might change.

GOP has said they will cut Ukraine aid if they win the House, so that clock is ticking.

[Grey Fox]

Russia is signaling gradual escalation for every Ukrainian battlefield success.  Now's a good time for a deal.

I would offer UN supervised referenda in the Donbas and Crimea on Russian annexation in exchange for NATO membership.  Free movement of people for some fixed time period that want to immigrate either direction.

Say the offer is valid for two weeks, as the battlefield is still fluid and terms might change.

GOP has said they will cut Ukraine aid if they win the House, so that clock is ticking.

Didn't think you were a Putin apologist, Yi.

Ukraine pre-2014 territorial integrity is not a bargaining chip.

A republican House will cut nothing. Them, like any other elected federal Republican answer to Mitch and his Senate group is still composed by a majority of Anti Russian senators.

[Sheilbh]

Big attack on the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. Russia reports minor damage to several ships but then blocks it's own Telegram social media company inside Russia and suspends the grain shipment deal...

Report and some extraordinary footage from one of the drones:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63437212
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1586358395933970433?s=20&t=IwWf1PNrfB3xJjc0yzSIng

[Admiral Yi]

Didn't think you were a Putin apologist, Yi.

Ukraine pre-2014 territorial integrity is not a bargaining chip.

The isthmus of Perekop is tiny and easily defended.  They have been digging trenches in the Donbas for eight years.  Ukraine has had three weeks of huge victories and then they have stalled.

[Admiral Yi]

A republican House will cut nothing. Them, like any other elected federal Republican answer to Mitch and his Senate group is still composed by a majority of Anti Russian senators.

Mitch is the de facto face of the anti-Trump Republicans.  He is outnumbered.  The House is not going to do what he says.

[Tonitrus]

Well shoot...lets also have UN-supervised referendums in northern/eastern Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Kashmir, Catalonia, Taiwan, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Belgium, northern Italy, Texas, Alberta, Quebec, those tribal parts of Pakistan, and most of Africa.

Did I leave any place out?

[Admiral Yi]

Well shoot...lets also have UN-supervised referendums in northern/eastern Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Kashmir, Catalonia, Taiwan, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Belgium, northern Italy, Texas, Alberta, Quebec, those tribal parts of Pakistan, and most of Africa.

Did I leave any place out?

I don't get your point.

[Zoupa]

Your proposal is unworkable, Yi. Who gets to vote? What about the civilians killed, we ignore them? Any pause in the fighting helps russia, that's why they've been pushing for negotiations for months now.

Russia getting anything from this war would set a terrible precedent. They need to be defeated on the field.

In any case, Ukrainians get to decide. They didn't give up in the first months when they were fighting the horde with javelins and assault rifles, preparing molotovs, they're not gonna give up because Kevin McCarthy is speaker. They don't give a shit. Mariupol and Bucha have shown them what happens when the russians occupy a place. They'll keep fighting.

[Admiral Yi]

Who gets to vote?

This would fall under UN purview.  My preference would be everyone who can demonstrate residency before The Troubles began.

In any case, Ukrainians get to decide.

This is a silly and obvious thing to say.

Unless you're proposing a bet on the eventual peace terms?

[Zoupa]

Who gets to vote?

This would fall under UN purview.  My preference would be everyone who can demonstrate residency before The Troubles began.

In any case, Ukrainians get to decide.

This is a silly and obvious thing to say.

Unless you're proposing a bet on the eventual peace terms?

I don't get why a referendum is needed just because a neibour covets your land.

The Crimea referendum was bullshit and nobody recognizes it. The Donbas revolt was also bullshit, with russia infiltrating soldiers and mercenaries to give a veneer of popular revolt. There are a thousand articles from reputed sources demonstrating this. This is not a civil war.

What's your reasoning for thinking now is a good time for a deal? And what makes you think you can trust the russians to respect the deal? They don't give a shit about treaties.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't get why a referendum is needed just because a neibour covets your land.

The Crimea referendum was bullshit and nobody recognizes it. The Donbas revolt was also bullshit, with russia infiltrating soldiers and mercenaries to give a veneer of popular revolt. There are a thousand articles from reputed sources demonstrating this. This is not a civil war.

Then a referendum would prove this, wouldn't it?

What's your reasoning for thinking now is a good time for a deal?

The reasons I already provided.

And what makes you think you can trust the russians to respect the deal? They don't give a shit about treaties.

I think I can count on the Russians to be motivated to end sanctions.

[Zoupa]

So what exactly is the price exacted on russia in your scenario? Do they have reparations to pay?

What about Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts? They're part of russia now apparently. Do we have referanda there too? And if not, why not? Why not Dnipro Oblast? Kharkiv? Odesa?

[Admiral Yi]

So what exactly is the price exacted on russia in your scenario? Do they have reparations to pay?

What about Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts? They're part of russia now apparently. Do we have referanda there too? And if not, why not? Why not Dnipro Oblast? Kharkiv? Odesa?

I would be supportive of a deal that includes reparations.

My original offer would be for referenda only in Crimea and the pre 2014 Donbas pocket.  If the Russians came back with a counteroffer I would consider it.

[Zoupa]

My question is why do you offer a referendum to those regions specifically and not others.