Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

I agree that tankies are rare, fringe, and don't hold power.  That's not true of peaceniks however.

[Legbiter]

Yeah ok Ukraine already gave up its nukes hoping for a just peace. That failed when Russia tried to make it its puppet anyway. Ukraine must arm itself, and heavily, to survive. Any suggestion of Ukraine neutrality or a disarmed Ukraine is equivalent to sacrificing Ukraine to Russia. Giving up its nukes was a mistake.

Yeah if I were Ukraine a nuclear weapons program for deterrence would be almost top of the list after the war ends. Unless Ukraine got access to the NATO nuclear umbrella via swift membership.

I don't think the Russians realize what an absolute nightmare Ukraine will be for them this century even if the war ends tomorrow. Mid level Russian bureaucrats and military officers will be turning up mysteriously murdered while on foreign holiday for the next couple of decades...

[Josquius]

How to announce you're planning to use a nuke without announcing you're planning to use a nuke.

BBC News - Russia ends civilian pull-out before Kherson battle
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63424569

Can't quote but it says their hands are now untied....

[Jacob]

Are you saying Russia is going to use a nuke in Kherson, Josq?

[Zoupa]

I'm putting 20$ down that the ruzzkis won't use any type of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, whether it be a dirty bomb, tactical nuke or any kind of nuke actually.

Yi?

[Zoupa]

I'm not calling you out or anything, I just know you're a betting man 

[Barrister]

I also do not think the Russians will use a nuclear weapon, though I'm not fully confident of that.

The Russians had believed the West would tut-tut their invasion of Ukraine, maybe slap on a few sanctions, but nothing more.  That has turned out to be wrong - the West has massively supported the Ukrainian war effort.

So they know any use of nuclear weapons will come with a response.

They also know a purely for-show use (say an atmospheric blast) will do nothing militarily, tactical use of a nuke would do almost nothing (Ukrainians are not using any kind of massed formations), and a strategic blast on a city seriously risks WWIII.

And I think the level of a Western response to a Russian nuclear weapon is pretty well understood - The US/NATO will respond conventionally with their own forces against Russian forces within Ukraine.  So by-by Black Sea Fleet, Kerch bridge etc.

The wild card though is if for internal reasons Putin feels pressured by the hardlines to use one.

[Josquius]

Are you saying Russia is going to use a nuke in Kherson, Josq?

I don't think they will /I'm hopeful they won't.
But they do seem to be directly threatening that.

[PJL]

I'll get seriously worried about Russia using a nuke if the markets start getting rattled by the brinkmanship.

[Barrister]

Are you saying Russia is going to use a nuke in Kherson, Josq?

I don't think they will /I'm hopeful they won't.
But they do seem to be directly threatening that.

They have been threatening it for months.

Remember when Putin himself threatened it in a speech, and even had to add the words "This is not a bluff!".

Fun fact - it almost certainly is a bluff.

[Jacob]

I don't think they will /I'm hopeful they won't.
But they do seem to be directly threatening that.

Yeah that's true enough threatening to use nukes is one of Russia's favourite actions, it seems.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm putting 20$ down that the ruzzkis won't use any type of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, whether it be a dirty bomb, tactical nuke or any kind of nuke actually.

Yi?

I'm on the same side of that bet as you.

[mongers]

I'm putting 20$ down that the ruzzkis won't use any type of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, whether it be a dirty bomb, tactical nuke or any kind of nuke actually.

Yi?

I'm on the same side of that bet as you.

I'd be on the otherside of that bet, possibly 10-1, but I wouldn't take it as it would be morally wrong to make money out of a human catastrophe.

[Josquius]

Are you saying Russia is going to use a nuke in Kherson, Josq?

I don't think they will /I'm hopeful they won't.
But they do seem to be directly threatening that.

They have been threatening it for months.

Remember when Putin himself threatened it in a speech, and even had to add the words "This is not a bluff!".

Fun fact - it almost certainly is a bluff.

True. But they seem to be narrowing it down and getting more specific about their threats.

[grumbler]

Russian says: "Ukraine is readying a dirty bomb which they will blame on Russia."
Russian manes: "Russia is readying a dirty bomb which we will blame on Ukraine."

Russian says: "I am NOT bluffing!"
Russian means: "I am bluffing."

When a Russian says "Ukraine is readying a dirty bomb which they will blame on Russia. I am NOT bluffing!" is gets a bit trickier.