Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I don't follow. I described what happens if Russia keeps manufacturing without the license, ie when it doesn't care about its reputation or rule of law.

I suppose the question is how much other business partners (i.e. China and India) care about that because these aren't UN-sanctioned, internationally mandated sanctions the entire world is applying. They are - as the Chinese keep pointing out - unilateral sanctions by the West (basically the G7 plus most of the rest of Europe, South Korea and New Zealand).

So I'm not sure others would see it as a breach of the "rule of law" or really having anything to say about reputation - because they're not UN/global sanctions that all states are (in theory) obliged to respect. Seizing the property affected by such sanctions seems like a reasonable counter measure.

It might make doing business with the West a challenge - but I wouldn't bet on that to be honest. There's whole companies who have "suspended" their operations in Russia and aren't formally covered by sanctions who have just been self-sanctioning. I wouldn't be surprised if this war drags on for a few months and it moves down the slots on the evening news if those companies un-suspend their operations.

There's plenty of companies willing to operate in dodgy countries that are very problematic reputationally and possiby a risk to their IP and they will do it if they've got a high enough risk appetite and the return looks good. I think Russia probably will fall into that category.

Let's say there's a negotiated settlement where, say, Russia gets Donbass and whatever security guarantees Ukraine agrees on, what happens with the sanctions?

Yeah I think that's key - and the fact that Putin was personally sanctioned, I would read as a sign that there's no chance of lifting these sanctions while he's in charge.

[Jacob]

Yeah, this is where I struggle to see how there can be a negotiated settlement.

The one demand Putin would have on any peace deal would be the lifting of sanctions and a return to normal.  But how can there be a return to normal after Russia has done this?  Even putting aside state actions what private company is going to invest in Russia now?

Here's how I see it:

Russia gets some concessions from Ukraine (territorial concessions, commitments about alliances and military dispostions, change in government structure - whatever the two parties agree to). That means Russia used an illegitemate war to bully a neighbour, and thus sanctions should remain in place indefinitely.

Or

Russia gets the fuck out of Ukraine, including the Donbass area, acknowledges it made a mistake, takes some steps towards repairing the consequences of those mistakes, and as part of that we also lift the sanctions.

We should not go for a scenario where Russia gets any concessions from Ukraine by force of arms and then we "return to normal." They've declared their enmity towards the West loud and clear. There is no reason for us to be nice to them at all. The Cold War v 2.0 is on.

[Admiral Yi]

So I'm not sure others would see it as a breach of the "rule of law" or really having anything to say about reputation - because they're not UN/global sanctions that all states are (in theory) obliged to respect. Seizing the property affected by such sanctions seems like a reasonable counter measure.

We were talking about Cummins cancelling Russia's license to produce their diesel engines and Russia continuing to do so.  That's only tangentially related to sanctions.

[Jacob]

We were talking about Cummins cancelling Russia's license to produce their diesel engines and Russia continuing to do so.  That's only tangentially related to sanctions.

It's an interesting side-topic though, and fits well into the overall thread IMO.

On the topic of Cummnins specifically, the issue is to what degree Cummins can take action to undermine Russia's ability to wage war and to function economically. If it's "just a name and a piece of paper" then it doesn't matter much, but if there are practical implications (i.e. the difference is whether Cummins actually supplies parts and expertise to keep the Russian plant productive) then it's fairly relevant.

[The Brain]

I don't follow. I described what happens if Russia keeps manufacturing without the license, ie when it doesn't care about its reputation or rule of law.

I suppose the question is how much other business partners (i.e. China and India) care about that because these aren't UN-sanctioned, internationally mandated sanctions the entire world is applying. They are - as the Chinese keep pointing out - unilateral sanctions by the West (basically the G7 plus most of the rest of Europe, South Korea and New Zealand).

So I'm not sure others would see it as a breach of the "rule of law" or really having anything to say about reputation - because they're not UN/global sanctions that all states are (in theory) obliged to respect. Seizing the property affected by such sanctions seems like a reasonable counter measure.

It might make doing business with the West a challenge - but I wouldn't bet on that to be honest. There's whole companies who have "suspended" their operations in Russia and aren't formally covered by sanctions who have just been self-sanctioning. I wouldn't be surprised if this war drags on for a few months and it moves down the slots on the evening news if those companies un-suspend their operations.

There's plenty of companies willing to operate in dodgy countries that are very problematic reputationally and possiby a risk to their IP and they will do it if they've got a high enough risk appetite and the return looks good. I think Russia probably will fall into that category.

This is a bit like arguing that killing one Russian soldier is pointless. Like I said, I don't think it would have huge impact, but every little bit helps.

[Jacob]

IMO the West should continue take all measures to strangle the Russian economy for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding how the war in Ukraine resolves (except, of course, Putinist complete capitulation).

[The Brain]

IMO the West should continue take all measures to strangle the Russian economy for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding how the war in Ukraine resolves (except, of course, Putinist complete capitulation).

I agree.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So I'm not sure others would see it as a breach of the "rule of law" or really having anything to say about reputation - because they're not UN/global sanctions that all states are (in theory) obliged to respect. Seizing the property affected by such sanctions seems like a reasonable counter measure.

since both Russia and the CCP have permanent seats on the Security Council the UN is kinda useless in this.

[Sheilbh]

We were talking about Cummins cancelling Russia's license to produce their diesel engines and Russia continuing to do so.  That's only tangentially related to sanctions.

Yeah I get that and they should cancel it. But it won't stop Russian production and it won't impact the remaining bits of the world doing business with Russia.

IMO the West should continue take all measures to strangle the Russian economy for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding how the war in Ukraine resolves (except, of course, Putinist complete capitulation).

I agree - I think the big risk to this is those companies who chose to pull out/"suspend" Russia sloping back if the attention dies down. I think all the oil companies who have stopped working Russia weren't technically in scope of the sanctions - it was just reputation/pressure from governments.

since both Russia and the CCP have permanent seats on the Security Council the UN is kinda useless in this.

Yes.

[Sheilbh]

Ukrainian negotiator (Google translated tweet):

Let's continue tomorrow. A very difficult and viscous negotiation process. There are fundamental contradictions. But there is definitely room for compromise. During the break, work will continue in subgroups.

It feels like every day Russia has to cross off another item from their list of demands. I think they've already had to concede on demilitarisation and maybe denazification.

[celedhring]

Ukrainian negotiator (Google translated tweet):

Let's continue tomorrow. A very difficult and viscous negotiation process. There are fundamental contradictions. But there is definitely room for compromise. During the break, work will continue in subgroups.

It feels like every day Russia has to cross off another item from their list of demands. I think they've already had to concede on demilitarisation and maybe denazification.

Do we know that for sure?

Love the use of "viscous" to describe the negotiation, possibly an artifact of translation but it's very graphic 

[grumbler]

So I'm not sure others would see it as a breach of the "rule of law" or really having anything to say about reputation - because they're not UN/global sanctions that all states are (in theory) obliged to respect. Seizing the property affected by such sanctions seems like a reasonable counter measure.

We were talking about Cummins cancelling Russia's license to produce their diesel engines and Russia continuing to do so.  That's only tangentially related to sanctions.

The contract presumably had a force majeure clause l;ike every other contract, and the Russian government ordering the continued production of the engines, license or not, wuld be an example of force majeure.  One cannot expect a government to forgo war manufacturing because of mere licensing details.

The US started manufacturing Bofors 40mm AA guns without a license from Bofors.  Later, they agreed to  pay something like $100,000 and turn over all their plans after the war (at which point the US also agreed to stop manufacturing the guns.  There was zero blowback from this.

The US never acquired a license for the Oerlikon 20mm AA gun, because Oerliken refused to license US production.  Again, zero blowback and, again, the US stopped production after the ware ended.

In wartime, licensing means a lot less than it does in peacetime.  It's more than a bit ironic that the Russian government would undoubtedly simultaneously argue that wartime production of the Cummins engine without a license is legal and that they are not at war.

[Sheilbh]

Do we know that for sure?

Got to say no I'm afraid - I swear I remember reading it about demilitarisation but I can't remember where or the context.

Also we don't know how much of a mandate the negotiators actualy have - given that Russian state TV has covered everything from "we should end this soon" to "let's invade Latvia next", I suspect that as with launching the war Putin is keeping the terms on which he'd end it very tight.

Love the use of "viscous" to describe the negotiation, possibly an artifact of translation but it's very graphic 

Yeah it's very clear.

In wartime, licensing means a lot less than it does in peacetime.  It's more than a bit ironic that the Russian government would undoubtedly simultaneously argue that wartime production of the Cummins engine without a license is legal and that they are not at war.

Yeah. There's a lot of that with Russia right now where I feel like things they might need to do would all require acknowledging that there is a war. Legally if Cummins isn't subject to the sanctions I wonder if it could even be that technically if they suspend the licence they're in breach

[Jacob]

Oh shit, Russia also put Trudeau and Freeland on the "unwelcome to Russia" list - and also the leaders of each of the opposition parties as well. Whatever shall we do 

[Legbiter]

The Ukrainians are saying that they have pretty much neutralized the northern axis of the Russian advance.

Gen Kryschenko and Gen Knyazev stood in front of the big interactive screen they use to track the Russian push towards Kyiv.

They explained they had attacked and stopped the forward movement of two main thrusts, one from the east and one from the north-west, which included the much talked about 64km (40 mile) column of Russian armour.

They said it had been attacked and forced to disperse, and insisted it was no longer a threat.

That's 6 or 7 Russian divisions cut off and under continuous pressure from the Ukrainians...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60745493