Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah guys let's not get all defeatist.

We are not fighting, what does it matter if we talk about the reality of what is happening? 

[crazy canuck]

This is going to end up as a Russian victory, won't it?

I mean it depends on what you mean by "victory" - I don't think Russian troops are marching through Kiyev, but I don't think Ukraine is going back to pre-2014 borders (which of course is my preferred outcome).

Russia lost the war two years ago, nothing is likely to change that unless a Trump-led United States shifts from malign neglect to outright support for Putin. Otherwise, the best Russian case is that they may occupy more pieces of a devastated eastern Ukraine, which will further drain already taxed resources. But their strategic position will remain considerably worse then pre-2022.

Of course it is possible for both sides to lose a war and that is looking increasingly likely as an outcome. Ukraine will have cemented its nationhood but at terrible cost.

What makes you think Russia cannot win? 

[Josquius]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

[Jacob]

We are not fighting, what does it matter if we talk about the reality of what is happening? 

I don't think we have a particularly clear line of sight on the reality of the situation.

[Valmy]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

Yeah well they already are the largest country in the world. It isn't territory they are short of.

[Tonitrus]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

Yeah well they already are the largest country in the world. It isn't territory they are short of.

It is not so much the amount of territory in this case...but where that territory is.

And of course, taking it as means of also denying it to others.

[The Minsky Moment]

On the understanding that Russia's two objectives were:
(1) Either annex Ukraine outright or replace the regime with a pro-Russian, Belarus-style puppet regime, and
(2) Strengthen Russia's geopolitical position towards the West.

Both of those objectives are not reasonably achievable and the war has actually made matters worse. In postwar Ukrainian history, pro-Russia political parties attracted significant political support at various times, but it is hard to imagine that now. The war has strengthened Ukrainian sense of nationhood and separate identity.  It has also reinforced NATO, spurred Germany and other members to significantly raise spending, and added the critical northern piece to the alliance that had been missing, and whose presence creates enormous strategic headaches for Russia.

If winning is simply defined as annexing pieces of territory like a Paradox map game, then sure that is within Russia's reach. But it will be a weakened crippled Russia at the far end.

[crazy canuck]

We are not fighting, what does it matter if we talk about the reality of what is happening? 

I don't think we have a particularly clear line of sight on the reality of the situation.

But we can read newspapers and discuss what is being reported by those who have a better idea of what is happening than us.

The sentiment here seems to be we dare not say anything inconsistent with what we hope will happen.

[crazy canuck]

Define win.

Russia will be worse off from the war guaranteed. That is assured.

At the same time it's very possible they could "win" and gain territory.

Yeah well they already are the largest country in the world. It isn't territory they are short of.

It is not so much the amount of territory in this case...but where that territory is.

And of course, taking it as means of also denying it to others.

Not only where but what it is.  It is the breadbasket. 

[crazy canuck]

On the understanding that Russia's two objectives were:
(1) Either annex Ukraine outright or replace the regime with a pro-Russian, Belarus-style puppet regime, and
(2) Strengthen Russia's geopolitical position towards the West.

Both of those objectives are not reasonably achievable and the war has actually made matters worse. In postwar Ukrainian history, pro-Russia political parties attracted significant political support at various times, but it is hard to imagine that now. The war has strengthened Ukrainian sense of nationhood and separate identity.  It has also reinforced NATO, spurred Germany and other members to significantly raise spending, and added the critical northern piece to the alliance that had been missing, and whose presence creates enormous strategic headaches for Russia.

If winning is simply defined as annexing pieces of territory like a Paradox map game, then sure that is within Russia's reach. But it will be a weakened crippled Russia at the far end.

And if the objective is simply to annex, as it has done since 2014, then the concerns you raised are not compelling.

[The Brain]

If Russia gets Ukrainian territory in a peace settlement then it's a victory in some important respects. They will have gotten official recognition of the validity of their military aggression against a clearly European country. This may not make it a victory in the overall count, and to the extent that it is a victory it may be Pyrrhic.

[Tamas]

We cannot be defeatist because our societies' resolve to continue supporting Ukraine is almost as important as the Ukrainians' resolve to continue fighting.

Also I think the most convincing true (initial) goal for this war (and the 2014 one) was making sure the pro-Western experiment in Ukraine fails. Nothing could had been more dangerous to the Russian regime than seeing a brother nation become proper democratic, align with the West, and prosper.

[Jacob]

But we can read newspapers and discuss what is being reported by those who have a better idea of what is happening than us.

For sure, and I for one appreciate it when folks post new perspectives and/or summaries of in-depth analysis that I haven't read myself.

That said, I myself haven't read anything that indicates an imminent Ukrainian collapse; and my understanding is that some of the Western materiel has begun arriving and should continue to arrive over the next months (including the first F16s, hopefully).

The salient questions in my view are:

• When does the current Russian attack culminate, and how far will it get before it does?
• How impactful will the Western support incoming this summer and fall be (including new US support)?
• How will the outcome of the US election and various European elections impact future support for Ukraine?

The sentiment here seems to be we dare not say anything inconsistent with what we hope will happen.

I don't think that is an accurate assessment of the sentiment.

[crazy canuck]

On the other hand if we indulge in pure propaganda for the sake of morale how then can there be a discussion within democratic societies which points to the woeful levels of support being given to obtain the objective of the propaganda.