Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I guess it's the advantage of having an actual actor as your country's leader doing these kind of speeches. Each one is a bit of a performance, and he's delivering.

Yeah I think a huge chunk of politics in a democratic society is performance (even when, perhaps especially, the performance is that you're not performing).

I think the best leaders root that performance in themselves because, in my view, politics/power reveals over time. But the only comparisons I have for his leadership (and as at least one of them shows - it doesn't mean he'll be great forever) are Mandela and Suu Kyi. Maybe for an older generation there's Walesa, JPII and Havel are in there too?

The one I thought there was a real "this is what you get with a professional actor/comedian" was one where he started doing it as the standard selfie video message we've seen - but he walked through the Presidential complex into his office, sat down and there was a seamless cut to the fixed camera of him speaking from his desk. It was just very smooth and beyond the smartphone updates. It feels like this is the first smartphone/social media war in a way - with Zelensky's messages, all the footage of Russian tanks and positions plus Ukraine's farmers helping themself to any armoured vehicle they want (Obviously I'm in a very pro-Ukrainian/partisan information space but it is really striking v the from what I've seen either leaden or very clearly astro-turfed Russian comms).

[The Larch]

More fodder for the "Russian logistics are abysmal" argument:

UK Defence Attaché in DC, AVM Mick Smeath, on Ukraine

"Reluctance to manoeuvre cross-country, lack of control of the air and limited bridging capabilities are preventing Russia from effectively resupplying their forward troops with even basic essentials such as food and fuel.

Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large numbers of troops to defend their own supply lines. This is severely limiting Russia's offensive potential."

[The Larch]

Apparently the Czech Republic is no longer accepting Ukranian refugees, after taking in almost 300k (half of them children, and from the adult half, 80% women).

[KRonn]

Kamil Galeev has another interesting thread, this time on how to sabotage the Russian war effort: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619

The main takeaways are:

1) The classic Russian "throw bodies at the problem" solution is much less viable to Putin due to demographics.

2) The Russian army is very low morale, consisting of poor conscripts who've either been pressed into service or who have no better options available.

3) Offer Russian soldiers a way out (a bit of money and a ticket to a warm country) and you'll start seeing notable desertion and morale impact

4) Offer Russian soldiers reasonable amounts of hard currency for sabotaging their equipment and providing evidence, and you will a) undermine the army's materal effectiveness significantly (because US$2,000 is worth more than their loyalty to the state and army), and b) it'll increase paranoia in mistrust within the ranks.

... personally I like the idea, but I wonder about the practicalities of actually implementing it.

Another factor put forward by an analyst, is given the huge corruption in Russia, how much a part did that possibly play in siphoning off funds from the military? Funds that should have gone to training, equipment, purchasing supplies, etc. All leading to performance much below expected by Russia's leaders in this invasion.

[Valmy]

Apparently the Czech Republic is no longer accepting Ukranian refugees, after taking in almost 300k (half of them children, and from the adult half, 80% women).

Yeah that might be their logistical limit. Makes sense.

[Berkut]

If I was someone who wanted to make the Russian Army function better, I would be less concerned about funds being siphoned off by oligarchs, and more concerned about funds being siphoned away by local mafia gangs demanding that the Army pay them protection money.

I mean....how the fuck do people think the Russian Army is so great if it cannot protect itself from the fucking mafia?

(Apparently, the Russian mob has ties and controls back and forth with the Russian security services, whose job it is to keep the Russian Army under control. What better way to do that?)

[KRonn]

Whatever the issue for the Russian military is, the way they are now operating in Ukraine by mass bombing and artillery strikes on civilian areas is what they've done in the past, as in Chechnya and Georgia. I guess they figure that hopefully will drain morale but I don't think it's working, not yet anyway. I remember the massive damage done to Grozny and elsewhere in Chechnya. Just seems the Russian military's way. Not that damage is avoided in wars such as the US and allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, but not the deliberate and mass targeting of civilians.

[Razgovory]

This is not directly war-related, but it's VDV video related, so I may as well ask it here.  What's the point of training soldiers to do stupid tricks? 

I understand why VDV may want to train their recruits on navigating playground mazes, given how important neutralizing playgrounds is for Russian war strategy, but why train them to do those goose stepping marches with their heads turned?  Or teach them to do those weird dances with aggressive hand chopping gestures and seductive grunts?  Surely you're not going to do a complete backflip in the air before shooting someone during an actual war. 

Wouldn't the time spent to train those tricks be better spent on teaching how to kill people more efficiently?  Or is there some method to the apparent madness?

[jimmy olsen]

In case you didn't dislike the Koch conglomerate enough yet.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/koch-industries-russia-ukraine-sanctions/

Koch Industries stays in Russia, backs groups opposing U.S. sanctions

As hundreds of major U.S. companies exit Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Koch Industries is staying put.

The industrial conglomerate — the second-largest privately owned business in America, with $115 billion in annual revenue — is among those defying public pressure and continuing to operate manufacturing plants and sell products across Russia, while up until Wednesday remaining mum on that nation's relentless assault on Ukrainian cities.

Wichita, Kansas-based Koch has several business lines in Russia, and is among the nearly 40 companies described as "digging in" by refusing to curb or stop business in that nation, according to a tally compiled by Yale University professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his research team.

Koch subsidiary Guardian Industries has two industrial glass manufacturing plants in Russia that employ about 600. Outside of Guardian, Koch employs 15 people in Russia, according to the company.

 "While Guardian's business in Russia is a very small part of Koch, we will not walk away from our employees there or hand over these manufacturing facilities to the Russian government so it can operate and benefit from them," Dave Robertson, president and COO of Koch Industries, said Wednesday in a statement posted by the company.

Calling Russia's attack on Ukraine "an affront to humanity" that "violates our company's values and principles," Robertson also said the company has provided financial assistance to workers and their families from Ukraine and other aid to those affected in neighboring countries.

"To be clear, Koch companies are complying with all applicable sanctions, laws and regulations governing our relationships and transactions within all countries where we operate," he added. "We will continue to closely monitor the situation and keep you updated as needed."

The company's stance on doing business in Russia drew criticism in some quarters. The New Yorker's Jane Mayer, author of "Dark Money," a book about the Koch's political influence, said the company's justification is hypocritical.

"Given how small Koch says its Russian operation is, hard not to see this as purely symbolic, sending the message that all of Koch's talk of rights and liberty means nothing. Making money is what they value," Mayer tweeted.

Arguing against sanctions

Political groups supported by Charles Koch, the right-wing billionaire who is chairman and CEO of Koch Industries, oppose broad economic sanctions against Russia, according to Popular Information, a left-leaning newsletter run by Judd Legum.

Stand Together, a nonprofit founded by Charles Koch, instead "supports targeted sanctions against Russia in response to its immoral invasion of Ukraine. We also believe that sanctions are a legitimate tool of statecraft. However, broad-based economic sanctions rarely achieve their desired policy outcomes," Dan Caldwell, the group's vice president for foreign policy, tweeted on Monday.

Caldwell previously suggested that the U.S. remain neutral on the conflict in Ukraine.

He would probably declare neutrality and reject pressure to involve the U.S. in an European war that wasn't in our interest, just like he did in 1793:https://t.co/n1XjS30wbo https://t.co/Oc7gA19gxD

— Dan Caldwell (@dandcaldwell) March 13, 2022

A similar message comes from Will Ruger, president of another Charles Koch-backed group, the American Institute for Economic Research, or AIER, according to Popular Information's reporting. "The United States can and should do very little for Ukraine," Ruger said in a March 2 podcast with Reason Magazine, a libertarian publication also supported by Charles Koch. "Ukraine simply doesn't matter to America's security or our prosperity."

Advancing that view, Ruger also shared on social media a Reason video entitled "Why Russian sanctions will fail."

Another Charles Koch-backed group, Concerned Veterans for America, is also cautioning against sanctions against Russia. In a petition letter, the group urges "restraint as America responds to Russia's immoral invasion of Ukraine. ... We should avoid actions that may aggravate the situation further or have damaging repercussions to American prosperity."

Yale has a list of companies and how they've adjusted operations (or not) in Russia: https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-400-companies-have-withdrawn-russia-some-remain

I will be extremely amused if Putin follows through on threats to seize all western owned companies within Russia.

[Josquius]

This is not directly war-related, but it's VDV video related, so I may as well ask it here.  What's the point of training soldiers to do stupid tricks? 

I understand why VDV may want to train their recruits on navigating playground mazes, given how important neutralizing playgrounds is for Russian war strategy, but why train them to do those goose stepping marches with their heads turned?  Or teach them to do those weird dances with aggressive hand chopping gestures and seductive grunts?  Surely you're not going to do a complete backflip in the air before shooting someone during an actual war. 

Wouldn't the time spent to train those tricks be better spent on teaching how to kill people more efficiently?  Or is there some method to the apparent madness?

I wonder to what extent its an intentional top down planned thing to make them look extra bad ass and scary or they just have some guys who learned to do that off the clock/when they should have been working and the vdv thought it would make something cool in the recruitment video.

I certainly have read the vdvs whole thing is appearances and shock value

[The Minsky Moment]

It turns out that rather than improving the effectiveness of the armed forces to meet anticipated operational goals, the core objective of the Russian military modernization program was figuring the best ways to really impress Ted Cruz.

[crazy canuck]

It turns out that rather than improving the effectiveness of the armed forces to meet anticipated operational goals, the core objective of the Russian military modernization program was figuring the best ways to really impress Ted Cruz.

They go to Mexico when it snows?

[DGuller]

It turns out that rather than improving the effectiveness of the armed forces to meet anticipated operational goals, the core objective of the Russian military modernization program was figuring the best ways to really impress Ted Cruz.

To be fair, impressing American politicians has historically been a highly effective and efficient way to accomplish geopolitical objectives for Russia.

[11B4V]

It turns out that rather than improving the effectiveness of the armed forces to meet anticipated operational goals, the core objective of the Russian military modernization program was figuring the best ways to really impress Ted Cruz.

To be fair, impressing American politicians has historically been a highly effective and efficient way to accomplish geopolitical objectives for Russia.

DGuller, are you of Ukrainian or Russian descent?

[DGuller]

It turns out that rather than improving the effectiveness of the armed forces to meet anticipated operational goals, the core objective of the Russian military modernization program was figuring the best ways to really impress Ted Cruz.

To be fair, impressing American politicians has historically been a highly effective and efficient way to accomplish geopolitical objectives for Russia.

DGuller, are you of Ukrainian or Russian descent?

I'm from Lviv.