Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

As per https://twitter.com/gianfiorella/status/1500071141284663299?s=20&t=7hvZdF0deM3g9N8__QqH7w

Apparently a plane from the Kremlin's "Special Flight Squadron" is headed for Washington, DC. 

https://www.flightradar24.com/RSD088/2b07dd1e

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_aircraft



Either someone wants to have confidential direct talks, or it's full of spetznaz to put Trump in office. Or maybe it carries a Tsar Bomba. Who knows anymore.

Or maybe just new spies, I mean: ambassadors.

[Admiral Yi]

   Aweseome

[celedhring]

Some pretty nasty (and grim) quotes from Borrell in an interview with a Spanish paper yesterday. "In the EU we always held the olive branch, thinking that preaching human rights and the rule of law would lead the world to have regimes like ours. This fairy tale has not come to pass."

The whole thing reads like a rude awakening from idealism and it's kinda sad. But it is where we are. 

He also tells that Lavrov apparently got angry when it was Borrell who answered the letter that Russia sent to each single EU government demanding security assurances "I wrote a letter to ministers and I get an answer from a bureaucrat". "No, you're getting the answer from the European Union".

[Syt]

Some pretty nasty (and grim) quotes from Borrell in an interview with a Spanish paper yesterday. "In the EU we always held the olive branch, thinking that preaching human rights and the right of law would lead the world to have regimes like ours. This fairy tale has not come to pass."

The whole thing reads like a rude awakening from idealism and it's kinda sad. But it is where we are. 

He also tells that Lavrov apparently got angry when it was Borrell who answered the letter that Russia sent to each single EU government demanding security assurances "I wrote a letter to ministers and I get an answer from a bureaucrat". "No, you're getting the answer from the European Union".

That's one of the things I've been noticing for a while now. Russia prefers to deal with countries one on one instead of with institutions like the EU - much easier to create/find divisions that way.

And they have their own sense of "who matters." I mean during the lead-up to the invasion they wanted to discuss a possible solution to security in Europe with the US - not the Europeans.

[Tamas]

According to the Ukrainians, the cease fire brokered to evacuate civilians from besieged Mariupol was not honored by the Russians so the evacuation had to be cancelled.

I wouldn't put it entirely past the Ukrainians to make this up but I am finding it far more likely that they are telling the truth. If nothing else than due to the Russians being incompetent enough never to bother cascading the cease fire order down the command chain.

[Zanza]

The EU does not fit into the pattern, being more than an international organization, but less than a state. It is not just Russia that does not know how to treat it. Trump famously asked Merkel to make a deal and even some British government members during Brexit tried to talk to member countries instead of the EU.

[Josquius]

Is it just me or is there an absolute shit tonne of Indian fake news about this war dominating the search results?

[Syt]

Paul Krugman is writing a thread about why in his opinion pivoting the Russian economy towards China isn't as easy as people might think:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1500080867091353601

Besides his general thoughts, I found this graph quite interesting - I wasn't aware of just how stagnant the Russian economy has been.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyCXyxp1MJo&list=PLceBYWuV_R35aZv6tZftvoiHvy-b1qp73&index=2&ab_channel=TheChangingOrder

That was interesting, but I have no idea whatsoever if Peter Zeihan is in any way credible, as I've never heard of him before this week.
But what he says does seem very plausible.
And if he's even halfway right, stuff will get much much worse before it gets better. 

what I do know is that the google algorithm works in mysterious ways.

[Sheilbh]

Some pretty nasty (and grim) quotes from Borrell in an interview with a Spanish paper yesterday. "In the EU we always held the olive branch, thinking that preaching human rights and the rule of law would lead the world to have regimes like ours. This fairy tale has not come to pass."

The whole thing reads like a rude awakening from idealism and it's kinda sad. But it is where we are. 

I don't knkow that sort of stuff makes me roll my eyes. They're politicians in positions of power. At best they were incredibly naive, at worst negligent for years and they're trying to spin it as just tragic, doomed idealism Especially given that at least half the people in the room were loudly repeatedly warning about this.

The EU is incredibly hard-nosed when it wants to be (trade, fiscal politics etc) so I lean to thinking it was a choice and that the same choice is probably happening with China. And we'll have a similar result.

He also tells that Lavrov apparently got angry when it was Borrell who answered the letter that Russia sent to each single EU government demanding security assurances "I wrote a letter to ministers and I get an answer from a bureaucrat". "No, you're getting the answer from the European Union".

Yeah I remember this - Borrell's response was very good. But I think it's also one of the very good things Biden's done as Russia constant tried to make this a "Soviet-US summit on Europe".

[Sheilbh]

Absolutely love this - Russian ships aren't allowed to dock in UK ports/refineries, but that doesn't stop ships with Russian goods docking.

But the trade unions have instructed their members to refuse to unload Russian goods/petrochemicals So there's a ship bouncing from refinery to refinery trying to find one that will accept their oil.

It's another bit of really weird/throwback politics - I know this was a thing in the 70s and 80s around South African or Chilean goods but glad to see it's back.

[Tamas]

Came up on Youtube, interesting discussion on the Russian airforce from about a year ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf1uQF38ZeA

[mongers]

Absolutely love this - Russian ships aren't allowed to dock in UK ports/refineries, but that doesn't stop ships with Russian goods docking.

But the trade unions have instructed their members to refuse to unload Russian goods/petrochemicals So there's a ship bouncing from refinery to refinery trying to find one that will accept their oil.

It's another bit of really weird/throwback politics - I know this was a thing in the 70s and 80s around South African or Chilean goods but glad to see it's back.

OK if it's crude oil, but I don't think it's wise to turn away refined products, especially diesel.

[Tamas]

Absolutely love this - Russian ships aren't allowed to dock in UK ports/refineries, but that doesn't stop ships with Russian goods docking.

But the trade unions have instructed their members to refuse to unload Russian goods/petrochemicals So there's a ship bouncing from refinery to refinery trying to find one that will accept their oil.

It's another bit of really weird/throwback politics - I know this was a thing in the 70s and 80s around South African or Chilean goods but glad to see it's back.

OK if it's crude oil, but I don't think it's wise to turn away refined products, especially diesel.

If Russia is generating income from it, it must be rejected.

[mongers]

Absolutely love this - Russian ships aren't allowed to dock in UK ports/refineries, but that doesn't stop ships with Russian goods docking.

But the trade unions have instructed their members to refuse to unload Russian goods/petrochemicals So there's a ship bouncing from refinery to refinery trying to find one that will accept their oil.

It's another bit of really weird/throwback politics - I know this was a thing in the 70s and 80s around South African or Chilean goods but glad to see it's back.

OK if it's crude oil, but I don't think it's wise to turn away refined products, especially diesel.

If Russia is generating income from it, it must be rejected.

But it'll get the Daily Mail reading drivers up in arms when they have to queue for diesel.