Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

I don't really see that in your article Tamas.

[mongers]

I can see an American and British tripwire of troops being strung across the middle of Ukraine within 5-10 days of a conflict starting.

[Zoupa]

How come it didn't happen in Crimea/Donbass then?

[mongers]

How come it didn't happen in Crimea/Donbass then?

Biden is willing to prove his tough stance and ex-PM Johnson is desperate for Any distraction.

[Tamas]

I can see an American and British tripwire of troops being strung across the middle of Ukraine within 5-10 days of a conflict starting.

No chance. I think the dilemma is that once Russia "resolved" the Ukraine question to their satisfaction the only targets left are the Baltic States, and I have little doubt the same shit-stirring would then commence there. But that doesn't mean anyone wants to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. So I'd assume Plan A is to prevent Russia from starting shit with Ukraine, since they might succeed. Plan B I'd imagine is to turn it into a decades-long quagmire into them by supporting the defence and then if need be the insurrection. I don't think there is any point for direct involvement, and even less appetite for it.

[Tamas]

Having said all that, UK troops being killed in Ukraine would be excellent news for Boris Johnson, so who knows what we will do.

[Sheilbh]

No chance. I think the dilemma is that once Russia "resolved" the Ukraine question to their satisfaction the only targets left are the Baltic States, and I have little doubt the same shit-stirring would then commence there. But that doesn't mean anyone wants to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. So I'd assume Plan A is to prevent Russia from starting shit with Ukraine, since they might succeed. Plan B I'd imagine is to turn it into a decades-long quagmire into them by supporting the defence and then if need be the insurrection. I don't think there is any point for direct involvement, and even less appetite for it.

Agreed - and there's a tripwire in the Baltics because they're NATO members.

Having said all that, UK troops being killed in Ukraine would be excellent news for Boris Johnson, so who knows what we will do.

They got rid of Maggie during the Gulf War. The Saudis thought there was a military coup because it was the only explanation they had for how a leader could be removed during a war.

The Americans were also very bemused by it.

[Berkut]

I can see an American and British tripwire of troops being strung across the middle of Ukraine within 5-10 days of a conflict starting.

No chance. I think the dilemma is that once Russia "resolved" the Ukraine question to their satisfaction the only targets left are the Baltic States, and I have little doubt the same shit-stirring would then commence there. But that doesn't mean anyone wants to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. So I'd assume Plan A is to prevent Russia from starting shit with Ukraine, since they might succeed. Plan B I'd imagine is to turn it into a decades-long quagmire into them by supporting the defence and then if need be the insurrection. I don't think there is any point for direct involvement, and even less appetite for it.

Yeah, I don't think there is anyone the US or NATO is going to put troops into Ukraine at this point.

[Sheilbh]

UK has troops there but just as trainers to the Ukrainian military - which indicates the UK thinks we'll have enough warning to pull them out.

[Jacob]

A number of NATO assets are being/ have been moved into the Baltics and the Baltic Sea recently - the HNMLS Rotterdam(Landing Platform Dock (LPD) amphibious warfare ship of the Royal Netherlands Navy and flagship of the Standing NATO Maritime Group 1) and the Danish frigate Peter Willemoes. Baltic Air Policing is also getting additional commitments from Denmark.

I know some folks are saying "really? Would NATO actually go to war over the Baltics". I think the answer is yes, because any serious Russian action against the Baltics would require attacking NATO assets from a variety of nations and then the die is cast.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

An "anonymous insight" from a Ukrainian paper "Strana.ua". They're mostly in opposition to the current government I believe, had to close a few times over the last few years. But I'm not close enough to know their funding sources and so on. Kiev has been quite effective banning Russia-funded news sources in Ukraine.

Quoting the article:

"The main agenda which the Biden administration is pushing on the government of Ukraine is to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements and to offer a number of compromises to Russia in our internal policies under the ruse of de-escalation. But here on Bankovskaya (the street where the government is located) we're growing increasingly convinced that all the hysterics in the western media (sorry Grumbler, it's a direct translation ) about the impending Russian invasion is part of the US deal with Putin. This way, the Americans are trying to force us to take the above steps, so they can deliver on their own, broader agreements with Kremlin."

The article goes on to say that the Ukrainian government isn't too concerned about the threat of the Russian invasion. But:

"The situation isn't as bad as back in 2015 (when the IMF forced us to sign the Minsk agreements) but because of the publications in the western media about the impending war it's deteriorating fast. Foreign investors are pulling money out of the country en masse, selling our securities, our currency is collapsing."

https://strana.news/news/372190-istochnik-v-diplomaticheskikh-kruhakh-rasskazal-ob-ozhidanijakh-bankovoj-ot-vizita-blinkena.html

I have no idea how trustworthy their "anonymous source" is... but thought it was an interesting view from Ukraine.

About strana.ua:

https://www.eurotopics.net/en/192896/strana

[Jacob]

UK has troops there but just as trainers to the Ukrainian military - which indicates the UK thinks we'll have enough warning to pull them out.

Canada also has troops in Ukraine at the moment. We just deployed special forces yesterday, to plan the evacuation of Canadian diplomatic staff in case of an invasion. We also have a contingent of 200 as trainers.

They're not exactly tripwire forces, I don't think, but they're in Ukraine nonetheless.

[Sheilbh]

An "anonymous insight" from a Ukrainian paper "Strana.ua". They're mostly in opposition to the current government I believe, had to close a few times over the last few years. But I'm not close enough to know their funding sources and so on. Kiev has been quite effective banning Russia-funded news sources in Ukraine.

Quoting the article:

"The main agenda which the Biden administration is pushing on the government of Ukraine is to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements and to offer a number of compromises to Russia in our internal policies under the ruse of de-escalation. But here on Bankovskaya (the street where the government is located) we're growing increasingly convinced that all the hysterics in the western media (sorry Grumbler, it's a direct translation ) about the impending Russian invasion is part of the US deal with Putin. This way, the Americans are trying to force us to take the above steps, so they can deliver on their own, broader agreements with Kremlin."

I think there could be something to the point on Minsk. There's been lots of hints from Russia about the Minsk/Normandy format - which neither Russia nor Ukraine are implementing.

I suspect if there's a resolution that will be the direction it goes in.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

I think there could be something to the point on Minsk. There's been lots of hints from Russia about the Minsk/Normandy format - which neither Russia nor Ukraine are implementing.

I suspect if there's a resolution that will be the direction it goes in.

Could be, indeed. The current crisis level seems like a bit of an overkill if its main purpose is to drive the Minsk agreements... but who knows at this point?

The situation may have taken a life of its own.

[DGuller]

Ukrainians may not be Russians, but they're still Eastern Europeans, so that means that in their minds nothing is as it seems.  There has to be a Byzantine plot behind everything.