Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

I think you misunderstood Zoupa's perspective.

For all that I've disagreed with him on many topics, he's been a resolute defender of Ukraine online, and I believe self-identifies as a member of NAFO.

I still don't understand Zoupa's perspective.  What do some internet memes have to do with the degree of support for annexation by Russia in the Donbas and Crimea?

It was unclear for which part you asked support.  There were two statements in my post for which you could've asked support.  Beeb assumed it was the first statement you asked about, Zoupa assumed it was the second.

[Admiral Yi]

It was unclear for which part you asked support.  There were two statements in my post for which you could've asked support.  Beeb assumed it was the first statement you asked about, Zoupa assumed it was the second.

Gotcha

[Valmy]

30 years is plenty of time that something could have changed.

You think? What could be different in the past nine years?

But the previous vote was like 90+% for Ukraine. So come on...what has changed that much in Russia's favor since then?

[Josquius]

You think? What could be different in the past nine years?

But the previous vote was like 90+% for Ukraine. So come on...what has changed that much in Russia's favor since then?

54%.
And the time since independence hasn't exactly been great-not for Russia either. But the grass is always greener.
I do think the pro Russia side would have been in with a good chance in a proper referendum.

I dunno. It's maybe me being overly optimistic but I'm sort of seeing shades of Ireland in Ukraine - in Ireland as you say the shit reaction to the Easter rising did a lot, but massively under rated as a factor is also how heavily war deaths fell on the loyalist population.
As much as Russia exaggerated the existence of nazis in Ukraine they were a thing that existed.... And in a war against fascists your own conflicting fascists make for useful bullet sponges.
I do hope progressive values will be the ultimate victor out of it all with two flavours of regression greatly weakened.

As to the polling... As mentioned it reads kind of questionable to me.
Polling like that in war time when there's an atmosphere of not wanting to appear anti war and a fear of government repression for being too pro Russian, and then they're given a pretty binary vote... And of course it's what's your aim rather than what will you settle for - it's a lot harder to gauge this since if you say you'll settle for something it really weakens your reach and makes hitting even that less likely.

I can't believe you're hitting up "Ukrainian nazis" as a talking point.

Ukraine has a nazi problem the same way the UK has a nazi problem.  If you squint real hard you can find a nazi or two, but in a huge country you're going to find just about any kind of political view.

In the last Ukrainian parliamentary election, the ultranationalist party won 2% of the vote, not enough to enter the Rada.

Many Ukrainian nationalists did work with the Nazis during WWII, Stepan Bandera amongst them.  I find it impossible to hold that against Ukraine though when you consider Ukraine ahd just gone through a fucking genocide a few years earlier orchestrated by the USSR, so obviously "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".  It's not like the Allies were coming to the rescue in Ukraine.

The UK absolutely has a problem with far right extremism yes. This is pretty well known. It's the big internal threat of pretty much every western country these days.

Though it is worth noting the Eastern European variety is quite different. A lot more old school. Which both makes them more and less of a threat.

Just because Russia insanely exaggerated things doesn't mean they're not a real thing and in 2014 they oddly proved useful.

J

[Josquius]

That's not true. Proportionally about the same number of Irish Catholic served in the British Army in WW1 (and, interestingly, WW2) as Irish Protestant. There was no British conscription in Ireland or Northern Ireland but the Irish regiments of the British Army have always been a thing - and still are.

I haven't got a proper source to hand but a quick check of Wikipeida confirms my memory that more protestants than catholics were in the army during WW1.
I recall reading some southern protestant communities were particularly hard hit.

To be absoluely clear a free, sovereign Ukraine is progressive and is in line with our values - just as much as national liberation in Ireland, across Africa and Asia were.

Sure. But then so too support for the taliban against the Soviets.
In Ukraine signs are good that the Ukraine that emerges out the other end will be a more progressive place than the one before the war - I think I posted in the gay thread a funny story with an ultra conservative supporting gay marriage because Russia is so anti gay.

Sure but you referred to it in support of your argument - I'm just pointing out it makes it look very, very difficult for a democratic society to actually start negotiating away territory.

And I think war makes things pretty binary: do you keep fighting or not.

Or do you keep fighting until certain conditions are met,

[grumbler]

If the people of a region of a country wants independence or to join another country then efforts should be made to accommodate democratic processes to confirm or reject this.

The process exists. It is called emigration.  There is nothing preventing people in Ukraine from becoming part of Russia, if that's what they want.

[Sheilbh]

I haven't got a proper source to hand but a quick check of Wikipeida confirms my memory that more protestants than catholics were in the army during WW1.
I recall reading some southern protestant communities were particularly hard hit.

Sure but that also reflects that Ulster recruitment levels were about the same as GB.

My understanding is that in each of the provinces of Ireland recruitment of Catholics and Protestants was broadly equivalent with their population, but recruitment levels varied but were generally lower in Southern areas than in the North. I could be wrong but I think recruitment in Ulster was basically as much as the rest of Ireland combined.

Sure. But then so too support for the taliban against the Soviets.
In Ukraine signs are good that the Ukraine that emerges out the other end will be a more progressive place than the one before the war - I think I posted in the gay thread a funny story with an ultra conservative supporting gay marriage because Russia is so anti gay.

I'm sorry I just don't really think it matters. I don't think the future of Ukrainian politics validates or invalidates their right to self-determination and sovereignty within their territory.

Or do you keep fighting until certain conditions are met,

But this is where Ukrainian opinion is even harder edged - 90% want all Ukrainian territory in Ukraine (not an unreasonable position).

Separately in full Ukrainians know what they're fighting against, Russia has unveiled a statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky outside the SVR HQ:


I think it's a slightly smaller version of the one that was outside the Lubyanka, which was - I believe - one of the first to be removed after communism.

[Josquius]

Sure but that also reflects that Ulster recruitment levels were about the same as GB.

My understanding is that in each of the provinces of Ireland recruitment of Catholics and Protestants was broadly equivalent with their population, but recruitment levels varied but were generally lower in Southern areas than in the North. I could be wrong but I think recruitment in Ulster was basically as much as the rest of Ireland combined.

Worth remembering as well that Catholic and Protestant doesn't necessarily line up with Republican and Unionist respectively.
As said I can't find a source with a quick google but I'm sure I have read over the years of unionist numbers taking a much bigger blow during the war for fairly obvious reasons.

Sure. But then so too support for the taliban against the Soviets.
In Ukraine signs are good that the Ukraine that emerges out the other end will be a more progressive place than the one before the war - I think I posted in the gay thread a funny story with an ultra conservative supporting gay marriage because Russia is so anti gay.

I'm sorry I just don't really think it matters. I don't think the future of Ukrainian politics validates or invalidates their right to self-determination and sovereignty within their territory.
[/quote]
I don't understand the relevance here?
This isn't about whether its good if Ukraine wins or not. Just what post-war Ukraine looks like. And indications are things are trending better on a lot of fronts.

But this is where Ukrainian opinion is even harder edged - 90% want all Ukrainian territory in Ukraine (not an unreasonable position).

Again thats based on a fairly linear poll where there'll be a huge pressure for people to  say the 'right' answer and baring in mind what they say they want isn't necessarily what they would actually accept- and the source of this whole conversation being in a theoretical where going back to pre 2022 borders would be a secure situation.

Its very notable in the polling that the places more exposed to the war tend to be more pro-peace; they're also the places that would have already leaned more Russian rather than western pre war so of course its debatable how much is due to their current situation being shit and how much supporting Russia.

[mongers]

Putin's main remaining strategy is to get or wait til the West surrenders on Ukraine's behalf, so anything to promote that is a tactics to support.

[crazy canuck]

Putin's main remaining strategy is to get or wait til the West surrenders on Ukraine's behalf, so anything to promote that is a tactics to support.

Your babel fish may need a replacement 

[grumbler]

As an aside, the Taliban didn't exist during the Soviet war in Afghanistan, so comparisons of X to "support for the Taliban against the Soviets" are silly.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

seems like the Ukrainians took out a kilo sub with the latest strike at Sevastopol

[Jacob]

Yeah. And a landing ship too. British missles, I believe.

Nice work.

[Legbiter]

Yeah. And a landing ship too. British missles, I believe.

 

I admire the effortless disdain the Brits display for the Russians. They're like a man who rediscovered his favourite pair of comfy slippers years after they were lost.

[Zoupa]

We also sent the SCALPs  The brits get all the love.