Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Grey Fox]

Nah, Pringle won. Putin saw 1st hand who's actually willing to get his hands dirty for a regime. FSB sat on their hands, Rosgvardia got out of way.

[Josquius]

It takes huge balls to come to Kremlin after a failed rebellion.  I wonder if Putin had a bigger ball-cutter on hand for the meeting.

There is the theory Wagner picked up some nukes in Rostov.

[The Minsky Moment]

But promising it now... I do wonder the value. Wouldn't this give quite the message to Russia that this is their one chance and they absolutely can never withdraw completely or the land is gone forever.

That ship sailed the moment the initial drive on Kiev failed.

[Sheilbh]

Nah, Pringle won. Putin saw 1st hand who's actually willing to get his hands dirty for a regime. FSB sat on their hands, Rosgvardia got out of way.

Yeah - it feels like another sign of what's felt the case since the march. That, somehow, they both lost. Prigozhin didn't pick up support from the wider armed forces to actually do anything serious, but they also didn't rush to support or defend Putin's regime which was shown to be very weak.

And it feels like in important, unpredictable ways this isn't over even if the main characters won't necessarily continue to be Prigozhin and Putin.

[The Minsky Moment]

Putin still wants his Himmler around to play off against his Goering.

[PJL]

Putin still wants his Himmler around to play off against his Goering.

Well, if we're going with that analogy, then it's not good for Putin either, as both of them deserted Hitler in the end...

[crazy canuck]

Putin still wants his Himmler around to play off against his Goering.

Well, if we're going with that analogy, then it's not good for Putin either, as both of them deserted Hitler in the end...

I think that is one of the points of the analogy

[Josquius]

Who's Donitz? Heil Donitz!

[Sheilbh]

So Erdogan and Biden spoke for an hour last night, and Erdogan's just dropped his veto on Sweden. Also wants to pick up EU accession talks and is asking the Americans to help on that front

What, a months after the election...

[Barrister]

So Erdogan and Biden spoke for an hour last night, and Erdogan's just dropped his veto on Sweden. Also wants to pick up EU accession talks and is asking the Americans to help on that front

What, a months after the election...

Last I heard was that Erdogan hadn't dropped his objection, and had linked Turkey's EU membership to Sweden's NATO membership.

[Sheilbh]

Jens Stoltenberg
@jensstoltenberg
Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with @RTErdogan & @SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward #Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. This is an historic step which makes all #NATO Allies stronger & safer.

Edit: And from the Turkish press:

Sweden will actively support Türkiye's EU membership process, including updating the Customs Union and visa liberalization

[viper37]

That will make Sweden popular in the EU!

[Sheilbh]

Nothing encourages active support like extortion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So Erdogan and Biden spoke for an hour last night, and Erdogan's just dropped his veto on Sweden. Also wants to pick up EU accession talks and is asking the Americans to help on that front

What, a months after the election...

Last I heard was that Erdogan hadn't dropped his objection, and had linked Turkey's EU membership to Sweden's NATO membership.

time to send in the winged hussars cause the last thing we need in europe is more islam.

[Barrister]

So with Finland and Sweden dropping neutrality and embracing NATO, is there any chance of other countries joining?

The first one that comes to mind is Ireland.  I know historically why they hardly wanted to side with the UK it seems like relations there are far better than they once were.

Next would be Austria.  I understand it's part of their constitution, but constitutions can change.  Certainly Austria is closely aligned with Europe in everything else.  I understand lots of Russian links however might make it unlikely.

Switzerland - Swiss neutrality has such a long, long history so this seems highly unlikely, but honestly it's not clear to me that neutrality does Switzerland any favours any longer.

Then we get to eastern europe. Serbia seems highly unlikely - NATO bomber them not that long ago.  But perhaps alongside normalizing relations with Kosovo and getting full EU membership?

Moldova and Georgia?  The Russian frozen conflicts have so far made that impossible, but who knows what configuration they're going to come up with vis-a-vis Ukraine?