Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

the azov commanders are back home from turkey

[Sheilbh]

On the weirdness of the whole Prigozhin situation - he's still in St Petersburg and Moscow apparently winding down his various business interests. Meanwhile Wagner are apparently still recruting. The Wagner forces that participated in the march are still on their bases and the ones who were involved in the fighting in Bakhmut are also still in their base. Senior Wagner leaders have now explained that apparently they're going to recuperate at base through August before moving to Belarus (assuming that ever happens).

It all still seems very odd.

[Hamilcar]

Rumors are that Gerasimov has been removed from commanding the Russian troops in Ukraine. Looks like Prigozhin is winning.

[mongers]

On the weirdness of the whole Prigozhin situation - he's still in St Petersburg and Moscow apparently winding down his various business interests. Meanwhile Wagner are apparently still recruting. The Wagner forces that participated in the march are still on their bases and the ones who were involved in the fighting in Bakhmut are also still in their base. Senior Wagner leaders have now explained that apparently they're going to recuperate at base through August before moving to Belarus (assuming that ever happens).

It all still seems very odd.

Pavel Flugenhouer (sp?) has been saying the situation is a truce or ceasefire, the Wagner forces haven't moved from their bases in and around Ukraine, Putin doesn't have enough forces to defeat them given the near critical situation on the frontlines.

And that the majority of military forces/commanders are siting on their hands waiting to see which way the wind blows.


My own view is Putin has begun some moves against Prigozhin, mainly in the state propaganda output, so it might not be too long before we see another confrontation or resolution?

[DGuller]

I don't think it's out of the question that Prigozhin is already jailed or dead, unless there was some proof of life communication that I missed.  The whole story about him going back to Russia to pick up his shit may have been a cover for Lukashenka just giving him up to Putin.  I don't think there is anyone in Wagner who would take up the leadership position and avenge Prigozhin if he were to be killed.  If he were already killed, keeping it quiet for as long as possible is a way to make the tension die down.

[Razgovory]

I thought he recorded a statement last week.

[Josquius]

So... The nato summit and Ukraine demanding a solid promise of membership after the war.
I'm wondering whether this is the wisest thing.

This actually happening in the future - sure. That's obviously what ukraine wants and what should happen.

But promising it now... I do wonder the value. Wouldn't this give quite the message to Russia that this is their one chance and they absolutely can never withdraw completely or the land is gone forever.
On the other hand it would certainly help Ukrainian morale and send them a similar message of win this once and the future is safe.

I don't think it's out of the question that Prigozhin is already jailed or dead, unless there was some proof of life communication that I missed.  The whole story about him going back to Russia to pick up his shit may have been a cover for Lukashenka just giving him up to Putin.  I don't think there is anyone in Wagner who would take up the leadership position and avenge Prigozhin if he were to be killed.  If he were already killed, keeping it quiet for as long as possible is a way to make the tension die down.

Which would really just raise more questions. Like how the hell was Prigozen so stupid so just give up at the gates of Moscow.

I have to suspect given how far be climbed he would not be so dumb and is still free.

My theory would be the actual war is what has him holding fire. Some sort of stay quiet whilst the Ukrainian counter attack is crushed deal- if it isnt quickly crushed then he gets some demand or other.

[DGuller]

In my theory he may not have been stupid at any point.  He started the coup too early and as a desperate step, because the FSB was onto him.  He was hoping for some miracle to materialize, which was more than just the Russian military letting him drive on a highway for a day.  He was probably hoping for some cascade of defections. 

When that didn't happen, he realized he was a dead man, so he took a lifeline from Lukashenko on the off-chance it was genuine.  Lukashenko almost immediately handed him off, and Putin then made sure he was a dead man (or he's holding him in jail for a moment, waiting for the right time to kill him). 

Nothing in this version of events makes him stupid in a way that the story about him going to Russia himself to pick up his guns does.  A man of his pedigree will definitely not trust an enemy to keep his word unless he has no other option but to trust him.  For him to go to Russia to pick up his guns, he would have to trust Putin's guarantee that he won't be harmed.  You don't have to be a hardened criminal like Prigozhin to know that Putin's word means nothing.

[Sheilbh]

The French press (Liberation) reported based on Western intelligence sources that Prigozhin had met with Putin. Apparently the Kremlin's now confirming that they had a three hour meeting with dozens of other top Wagner commanders.

[Tamas]

The French press (Liberation) reported based on Western intelligence sources that Prigozhin had met with Putin. Apparently the Kremlin's now confirming that they had a three hour meeting with dozens of other top Wagner commanders.

How is this good for Putin to admit? Unless Prigozhin is dead/captured indeed, I guess.

[Duque de Bragança]

The French press (Liberation) reported based on Western intelligence sources that Prigozhin had met with Putin. Apparently the Kremlin's now confirming that they had a three hour meeting with dozens of other top Wagner commanders.

Seems legit. The Kremlin has confirmed the meeting.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-met-putin-after-rebellion-2023-07-10/

[Legbiter]

Zelensky will be at the NATO summit in Vilnius. So some kind of expedited NATO membership deal must have been worked out behind the scenes. 

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1678371880154157056

[Tamas]

I think a guarantee that Ukraine becomes a NATO member after signing a peace with Russia would be best.

It would give a clear and publicly declared roadplan and be very straightforward with Russia as well, not to mention a motivation for Ukrainians - win the war and you'll be safely under Western umbrella afterwards.

It could also provide face-saving if territory concessions to Russia would become necessary - although I maintain those would be a terrible idea for European (and indeed world) stability.

[Legbiter]

Yeah if Ukraine is not in NATO under the US nuclear umbrella the option is either Israel (homemade nuclear deterrent) or Korea (massive US troop presence). 

[DGuller]

It takes huge balls to come to Kremlin after a failed rebellion.  I wonder if Putin had a bigger ball-cutter on hand for the meeting.