Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

I think that they could get in with a temporary carve-out for currently occupied territory, if there were a will for it.  Other NATO countries had some of their territory excluded from Article 5.

But still - that would mean that as soon as Russia lobs another missile at Kiyev that could trigger Article V.

[mongers]

I don't understand people, mainly on the left, getting their knickers in a twist about first landmines and now cluster munitions; as has been mentioned it's Ukraine's fight for national survival, so any weapon in extremis seems justified, just so long as the rules of war are observed. 

Maybe it's people with a self-view of themselves as superior moral people needing to demonstrate this by decrying the nature of warfare, the aim of which is to shred bodies and remove enemy armies from your territory?

As it is, widespread use of landmines, deployed in various ways including aircraft and MRLS seems to have been a significant way in which Ukrainians slowed or blunted the Russian attacks.

And now that the Russians are largely on defensive they're resorting to massive minefields, so cluster munitions would seem a good tool for destroying complex enemy minefields, troops in trenches and some other field works.

Going out on a limb here, but I could understand a non-NATO Ukraine resorting to chemical, possibly tactical nukes to dislodge say a future Russian hold out in the Crimea, it is after all their own territory they're recovering.

[Josquius]

I don't understand people, mainly on the left, getting their knickers in a twist about first landmines and now cluster munitions; as has been mentioned it's Ukraine's fight for national survival, so any weapon in extremis seems justified, just so long as the rules of war are observed. 

The issue is they're increasingly not OK according to the rules of war.

Totally understandable why Ukraine will use every method at its disposal but it does make you think. War is never done just for the fun of it. If these weapons are judged ok now then surely there's a special exception any time a nation gets into a war? But in that case why bother banning them at all? Its a little shake for the whole system of international law.

Really the nations that signed up to the treaties against them are doing as they should and condemning them - remember Russia is using them more, and on another nations territory without permission.

This doesn't stop America giving them to Ukraine. Which...i kind of like the don't let them go to waste and use them all up credentials of. Would be nice if America made clear after their stocks are gone no more.

And no. Couldn't see Ukraine going for WMDs. They'd shred their good will and give Russia free reign to respond. Russia has far more of that stuff prepped.

[Sheilbh]

Another crucial angle is that it is Ukraine wanting to use these weapons on Ukrainian territory - it is their own land.

The reality is there will have been thousands and thousands of Soviet era shells rained on Ukraine and while swathes of the countries mined. It will be a vast task across generations to deal with that - and in that context I'm not sure cluster munitions are really make things much worse? Especially as they've already been used by one side so are already present.

[mongers]

Another crucial angle is that it is Ukraine wanting to use these weapons on Ukrainian territory - it is their own land.

The reality is there will have been thousands and thousands of Soviet era shells rained on Ukraine and while swathes of the countries mined. It will be a vast task across generations to deal with that - and in that context I'm not sure cluster munitions are really make things much worse? Especially as they've already been used by one side so are already present.

Indeed and it's worth remembering the widespread use of minefields saved the nascent Bosnian state from defeat and probably horrendous levels of 'ethnic cleansing'.

Landmines were petty much their only option, given they were subject to a international arms embargo, unlike Ukraine and the UN peacekeeping force didn't try to make a peace.

[Sheilbh]

Yes. Of course Bosnia still has many of those landmines - the legacy of this war is going to be so huge.

Interestingly on Bosnia Maggie Thatcher was very openly (and rightly) critical of the arms embargo - admittedly from retirement. But she is still oddly well regarded in some Bosnian communities for it.

[jimmy olsen]

I don't understand people, mainly on the left, getting their knickers in a twist about first landmines and now cluster munitions; as has been mentioned it's Ukraine's fight for national survival, so any weapon in extremis seems justified, just so long as the rules of war are observed. 

Maybe it's people with a self-view of themselves as superior moral people needing to demonstrate this by decrying the nature of warfare, the aim of which is to shred bodies and remove enemy armies from your territory?

As it is, widespread use of landmines, deployed in various ways including aircraft and MRLS seems to have been a significant way in which Ukrainians slowed or blunted the Russian attacks.

And now that the Russians are largely on defensive they're resorting to massive minefields, so cluster munitions would seem a good tool for destroying complex enemy minefields, troops in trenches and some other field works.

Going out on a limb here, but I could understand a non-NATO Ukraine resorting to chemical, possibly tactical nukes to dislodge say a future Russian hold out in the Crimea, it is after all their own territory they're recovering.

This is why
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1677288549186502657
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1677292215855398912
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1677293159947153409

The entire discourse surrounding the potential supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine just demonstrates how to the majority of Westerners the concept of an "existential" war is so alien as to be beyond even imagination.

Western countries have been fighting asymmetric, low intensity, "wars of choice" for decades. And the majority of the arguments against the deployment of these weapons are based around the assumption that these will be the only such wars fought in the future.

And this assumption is the first argument HRW makes when talking about cluster munitions.

"Cluster munitions were designed for use in the Cold War, specifically for the large-scale bombardment of massed tank and infantry formations".

Exactly the war Ukraine is fighting.

[Admiral Yi]

But that's not the knock on cluster munitions.  Rather it's that some don't go off and children pick them up.

I agree that it's Ukraine's call if they want to deploy them on their own territory.  It's their own kids they're putting at risk.

[Admiral Yi]

And for the record I want to say the Land Mine Ban was a retardo treaty sold by a retardo princess.

[Tamas]

But that's not the knock on cluster munitions.  Rather it's that some don't go off and children pick them up.

I agree that it's Ukraine's call if they want to deploy them on their own territory.  It's their own kids they're putting at risk.

Well, to this very day regular (and unexploded) artillery ammunition from WW2 is found in Hungary, although obviously not on the surface anymore, "just" during construction or agricultural work.

I understand cluster ammo is worse in this regard but the current and present danger to Ukrainian children is being slave-traded into Russia. 

If the Russian army was coming for our families I don't think any of us would be having these discussions over the moral conundrums of the long-term price of short-term keeping them alive.

[Zoupa]

There's also a more practical reason, that being Europe/NATO has not been producing or delivering enough 155mm ammo. They've had 500 days to ramp it up and it's pitiful.

Clusters are a stop-gap so the counter-offensive doesn't stall due to lack of ammo. Btw good thing South Korea agreed to lend these shells, or else we'd truly have a frozen conflict.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

But that's not the knock on cluster munitions.  Rather it's that some don't go off and children pick them up.

I agree that it's Ukraine's call if they want to deploy them on their own territory.  It's their own kids they're putting at risk.

Well, to this very day regular (and unexploded) artillery ammunition from WW2 is found in Hungary, although obviously not on the surface anymore, "just" during construction or agricultural work.

I'll confirm this for Belgium:
In the Ardennes we still find ordinance from WW2.
And in Flanders we still find (speaking from experience here btw) munitions from WW1, some of it individual shells, a lot of it ammo dumps from when the war had just ended. That's including regular shells, poison gas canisters, smoke shells using phospor and anything else they wanted to get rid of.

So it'll take a lot of time to clean up the stuff. But it's better to be in a position where you can clean it up than having been genocided into oblivion.

[Josquius]

I love the bit about the area in north east France which is totally off limits to this day due to chemical warfare in WW1.
And then the iron harvest in the broader area.

Wonder if we might get a nature reserve strip along the front line.

[Legbiter]

There's also a more practical reason, that being Europe/NATO has not been producing or delivering enough 155mm ammo. They've had 500 days to ramp it up and it's pitiful.

Clusters are a stop-gap so the counter-offensive doesn't stall due to lack of ammo. Btw good thing South Korea agreed to lend these shells, or else we'd truly have a frozen conflict.

The West has tripled artillery ammo production and it's still not enough, probably need to triple it again.  Russia has fired maybe 10 million artillery rounds...in 15 months.

[celedhring]

While I was flipping radio stations I found out that the Spanish public broadcaster has set up a station that broadcasts Ukraine's public radio.

Right now there are 300k Ukrainians officially in Spain (prewar residents and refugees) so I guess it makes sense.