Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

Here's a fun story from Russia:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1677031958075916290

Russian propogandists are making a movie.  It's set in Ukraine, although filmed in Russia.  As part of the movie there's a scene with a crowd of people waving both Ukrainian and rainbow flags (because Ukrainians are all fags or some such).

Someone forgot to notify the FSB however, as people from the film company were arrested on the spot.

It links a Russian news site as a source, but I can't open that Russian page (and can't read Russian anyways) so take it for what you will.

Neo nazi is hastling a lone old woman visiting the grave of her husband who died in WW2 (shit that's an old woman) when

7/ During the scene, a crowd of LGBT people carrying Ukrainian and rainbow flags pass in the background (it's not clear why)

Wow.

[grumbler]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

As we've seen throughout the war, Russian military equipment doesn't work well and has flaws, but it still on some basic level works.  We know their missiles work after all.

We know that some missiles worked and some didn't. Few of those that worked performed to the level the Russians had claimed for them.

[grumbler]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

As we've seen throughout the war, Russian military equipment doesn't work well and has flaws, but it still on some basic level works.  We know their missiles work after all.

Are the missiles more modern than their nuclear arsenal?

The Russians say that most of their nuclear arsenal has been modernized...

Of course they are going to say that.  Their claims mean nothing, though, because they have to make those claims.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

As we've seen throughout the war, Russian military equipment doesn't work well and has flaws, but it still on some basic level works.  We know their missiles work after all.

Are the missiles more modern than their nuclear arsenal?

The Russians say that most of their nuclear arsenal has been modernized...

Of course they are going to say that.  Their claims mean nothing, though, because they have to make those claims.

Heck, I frequently claim my nuclear arsenal has been modernized purely for the deterrent effect.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

As we've seen throughout the war, Russian military equipment doesn't work well and has flaws, but it still on some basic level works.  We know their missiles work after all.

Are the missiles more modern than their nuclear arsenal?

The Russians say that most of their nuclear arsenal has been modernized...

Of course they are going to say that.  Their claims mean nothing, though, because they have to make those claims.

Heck, I frequently claim my nuclear arsenal has been modernized purely for the deterrent effect.

Aren't burritos chemical weapons though?

[Tamas]

Gotta' say I agree with this random Tweet I saw:

The entire discourse surrounding the potential supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine just demonstrates how to the majority of Westerners the concept of an "existential" war is so alien as to be beyond even imagination.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, can't we just have a polite existential war

[Sheilbh]

Ish.

The US allows the use of cluster munitions so I don't think there should be an issue with the US supplying them. On the other hand I believe the US was, for a while, supporting a ban on them - but I don't think that's their official position now.

Other countries in Europe and America who are arming Ukraine don't allow the use of cluster munitions and are signed up to treaties banning them - which means they're not going to be able to supply them and that's fine.

More generally on an existential war - I think yes to a point. On issues like this, different countries will have different positions which is okay. On wider issues, we can't tolerate war crimes or the breach of the Geneva convention (I was very uncomfortable early in the war with videos circulating of Russian POWs - I think Ukraine stopped that). Those rules didn't come from a Europe lacking understanding of existential war but one that had seen exactly what one (or two) could look like because it can be used to justify more or less anything. To be clear that's not how Ukraine is behaving but I don't think it's a debate-ender because the needs of an existential war can take you to some terrifying places.

Edit: And, I think that there has been an international push to ban them with lots of European and North American support - it's quite the switch to now switch to backing them because there's an existential war we care about.  No issue with states that aren't part of that push, support their use being allowed handing some over - not sure it's great for states that have been pushing for them to be banned to now be shouting that we need more.

Edit: Of course it is also worth noting that those restrictions on the conduct of even an existential war were largely written by the victors with power - not unlike the rest of the rules based international order.

[Tamas]

Yes, but, I think things are moving toward a situation where equipment and technology will be on Ukraine's side, and sheer manpower on Russia's (in terms of comparative numbers and the willingness to burn through those numbers). Things like cluster ammunition seem like an efficient way to combat the kind of human wave tactics the Russians seemed to employ at Bakhmut.

[Josquius]

Interesting vid of a prisoner exchange today.

Russian guys looked totally normal.

Ukrainians looked like POWs held by the Japanese in WW2.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, but, I think things are moving toward a situation where equipment and technology will be on Ukraine's side, and sheer manpower on Russia's (in terms of comparative numbers and the willingness to burn through those numbers). Things like cluster ammunition seem like an efficient way to combat the kind of human wave tactics the Russians seemed to employ at Bakhmut.

Sure and as I say I've no issue with states that already support allowing the use of cluster munitions - and that have them providing them to Ukraine.

Obviously countries that ban them can't supply them but also I think it's fair in terms of any common arms purchasing to say that countries with a pollicy against can either opt out or basically get a guarantee that their support won't go to those weapons. I don't think those countries need to be or should be overturning their positions.

[DGuller]

Interesting vid of a prisoner exchange today.

Russian guys looked totally normal.

Ukrainians looked like POWs held by the Japanese in WW2.

That has been the pattern.  Hopefully the male Ukrainians at least still had their testicles with them.

[Sheilbh]

I see Turkey support Ukraine's membership of NATO which I think just leaves the US (and maybe Hungary).

Mad if Ukraine gets in before Sweden

[Tamas]

They are not getting in while they have a war going on.

[DGuller]

I think that they could get in with a temporary carve-out for currently occupied territory, if there were a will for it.  Other NATO countries had some of their territory excluded from Article 5.