Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKrReH_UQFw

Recruitment video for Ukrainian Foreign Legion of Territorial Defense.

[Admiral Yi]

Separately, according to Zug canton, Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy.

Any mention of Schroeder's severence package?

[viper37]

Alternatively, they could repeat their Syrian strategy - encircle city, provide a temporary corridor for anyone who wants to get out, and then bomb the shit out of the city.

That would not go over well domestically, given the Kyiv's place in Russian history.

Please, Russia says they use only super precise ammunitions and totally make sure no civilian areas are hit - I'm sure they'll be able to avoid all collateral damage.

And they do.  Any rumors to the contrary is just propaganda.  The Russians do not miss the cities they aim for.  There is no such thing as collateral damage for Russians, all targets are accounted for.

[Josquius]

Not sure how reliable it is but wasn't there intel Russia planned to start riots and use civilians trying to flee Kiev in a panic as part of their strategy for taking it?

I saw a YouTube video today but a guy called bald and bankrupt I sometimes watch. British guy who seems quite off but who travels to interesting Eastern block places... And had to flee Kiev as a refugee.

It struck me how very covid this whole thing is. Not hollywood at all. No last chopper out of saigon. Its so very... Lazy. Resigned. Going through the motions.

[The Brain]

Schröder's behavior after leaving office has to be among the least reputable of any major European leader in the 21st century. He's a disgrace.

His behavior in office was a disgrace as well. How much of his support for transitioning Germany away from nuclear energy can be attributed to his being bought and paid for by Russia?

That's completely unrelated.
First, Germany barely uses gas for electricity production, but rather for heating

I don't understand this part. Nuclear power can absolutely be used to generate electricity for electric heat.

Or simply produce heat for heat. But energy I think is better for a different thread.

[mongers]

Old school - BBC Ukrainian Service adding new shortwave frequencies to broadcast into Ukraine. And probably essential given this mesage from Ukraine's Defence Minister:

Oleksii Reznikov
@oleksiireznikov
Russia is preparing to launch an info&psycho operation.Its goal is to break the resistance of Ukrain'es ppl&army. At 1st,they can arrange a breakdown of connection.After-the spread of massive FAKE messages that Ukraine's country leadership has agreed to give up.We're in Kyiv!No surrender!Only victory!

Separately, according to Zug canton, Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy.

That's encouraging, old tech coming into it's own as a backup.

I wonder how many Ukranians still have access to a SW radio of some form?

[mongers]

Not sure how reliable it is but wasn't there intel Russia planned to start riots and use civilians trying to flee Kiev in a panic as part of their strategy for taking it?

I saw a YouTube video today but a guy called bald and bankrupt I sometimes watch. British guy who seems quite off but who travels to interesting Eastern block places... And had to flee Kiev as a refugee.

It struck me how very covid this whole thing is. Not hollywood at all. No last chopper out of saigon. Its so very... Lazy. Resigned. Going through the motions.

'Life should be cinematic' - what an odd notion.

[Solmyr]

Not sure how reliable it is but wasn't there intel Russia planned to start riots and use civilians trying to flee Kiev in a panic as part of their strategy for taking it?

I saw a YouTube video today but a guy called bald and bankrupt I sometimes watch. British guy who seems quite off but who travels to interesting Eastern block places... And had to flee Kiev as a refugee.

It struck me how very covid this whole thing is. Not hollywood at all. No last chopper out of saigon. Its so very... Lazy. Resigned. Going through the motions.

'Life should be cinematic' - what an odd notion.

I mean, it's not like there haven't been lots of cinematic moments in this war. "Russian warship, fuck off", etc. There's lots of material for a major Hollywood production 20 years down the line.

[Razgovory]

Not sure how reliable it is but wasn't there intel Russia planned to start riots and use civilians trying to flee Kiev in a panic as part of their strategy for taking it?

I saw a YouTube video today but a guy called bald and bankrupt I sometimes watch. British guy who seems quite off but who travels to interesting Eastern block places... And had to flee Kiev as a refugee.

It struck me how very covid this whole thing is. Not hollywood at all. No last chopper out of saigon. Its so very... Lazy. Resigned. Going through the motions.

It probably moves faster when you are there.

[The Larch]

Apple has announced it'll "pause all product sales" in Russia, as well as disabling the RT and Sputnik apps outside of Russia.

[viper37]

Fucking fearless: https://twitter.com/jelle_simons/status/1498649109846241281?s=20&t=T_Y9yBPmhjgYwIk_obeQ1w


This won't end without Russia giving up or having to machine gun down civilians.

Raises ever more the question: even if Russia wins the war - how could they pacify that country if that's how unarmed civilians oppose them even now.

Russia will target cities after cities, they will shoot civilians instead of shooting in the air, and eventually, the opposition will be dead or back home protesting in silence.  Tchetchnians fought the Russians, Georgians too.  In Crimea, there were multiple executions and sudden disapearance of opponents.  Just give them time, Russia is just beginning, and their narrative was always that Ukrainians were Russians and got turned away by western propaganda and organized coup (see Gaiijin's posts). 

Only recently have they shifted to "it's a bunch of nazis". Russia is setting the ground for mass murders of Ukrainian opposition; this is what they did with Nazis, so they will do with these soldiers.

[mongers]

I hope the siege of Warsaw in 1939 isn't a guide for how long Kyiv can hold out:



Warsaw garrison surrendered on the 27th September; 27 days after this Russia invasion of Ukraine is Tuesday March 22nd.

[viper37]

The Russians are not very good at trying to look like the good guys.

Why would they? Would they gain more international support for their invasion and future annexation of Ukraine?  Would Ukrainians be more acceptive of their invasion?  Would it reduce the sanctions we inflict on them?

I don't think Putin really cares about that.  Many dead Georgians could attest to that.

[viper37]

I don't understand this part. Nuclear power can absolutely be used to generate electricity for electric heat.

Most German houses do not have electric heating though, but gas or even oil heaters. Electric heating with a heat pumps necessitates modern insulation, which is not that widespread. Other means of electric heating are barely used in Germany as far as I can tell. Probably too expensive or inefficient

The means of heating, gaz or electric pump is irrelevant of insulation.
It just mean you need more combustible and a bigger furnace/pump or one that will work longer to heat a less insulated house.

5000BTU is 5000BTU, be it wood, gaz, pellet, oil or electricity.

The main problem with heat pumps, insulation or not is the outside climate.  Heat pumps are great at -10C, -15C.  They're still good at -20C. When you get below that, it gets harder to heat your house with just that.  Some models are rated up to -30, -35C, but they will cost a lot and don't always work as advertised.

Gaz, however, will work as long as there is fuel to burn.  It just requires more when it's colder outside.

I do not know the climate of northern Germany, how it compares to my own.  I know I can't heat all of my house solely with heat pumps for all of winter, even if I spent money to better insulate parts of it by replacing older windows and doors, there are days where it's just too cold outside, and there's just too much snow that accumulates where I can place the outside units, unless I got out and regularly shovel around it, even during snowstorms.

[viper37]

I can't say for certain how much of Russias army is deployed, but they have for example something like 3000 active tanks and another 10000 in reserve, so far they've lost a few hundred at the very most.

Likewise with the rest of their stuff, they have a lot and even if a lot is deployed they will have huge reserves. No doubt they can crush Ukraine militarily even with western support. The question is if they can handle it economically and politically. I doubt the will is there to go to full WW2 mode.

So if they've lost 200 in a week and that rate continues, they'll be completely out of tanks - including reserves - in 65 weeks. So a little over a year.

Obviously one can't assume a steady rate, but losing a "a few hundred" tanks is not a glorious start in the first week.

I suppose they can still manufacture some tanks...  It's not a finite amount.