Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

The short Western attention span and lack of strategic patience in Iraq (19 years and counting) and Afghanistan (20 years)?  Putin does not have enough lifespan left to take advantage of that sort of impatience.

[The Minsky Moment]

14/ This this is where Putin sees opportunity. He believes that the short attention span, and the lack of strategic patience, that western nations have shown in places like Somalia, Iraq & Afghanistan will occur in Ukraine if he can hold out for the northern winter.

The US stuck it out in Afghanistan for 18 years; the Iraq regime the US helped put in place is still live and kicking.  I don't think that's a timeline that works for Putin.

But bigger point is that he has the dynamic backwards.  Ukraine is *HIS* Afghanistan, not the Wests.  All the West has to do is keeping dripping in aid and supplies while Russia bleeds.  Will there be some fatigue?  Sure.  But the contractor lobby will give political cover to a continuing aid flow, and no politician is going to worry about losing their job because they voted mil aid to Ukraine.

If this is representative of Putin's thinking, Russia is screwed.

[Valmy]

Mick Ryan on Putin's evolving theory of victory: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1546039360973185024

I particularly note:

13/ Third, Russia now probably sees benefit in drawing out the war. The Ukrainians are now reliant on western munitions. And holding onto the southern regions, the Ukrainians are becoming increasingly dependent on international economic aid. Time is Putin's weapon.

...

14/ This this is where Putin sees opportunity. He believes that the short attention span, and the lack of strategic patience, that western nations have shown in places like Somalia, Iraq & Afghanistan will occur in Ukraine if he can hold out for the northern winter.

Keeping the Russians bogged down in Ukraine for a very long time seems like a win to me. And this will allow the invisible hand of capitalism to shift around the world economy to be less dependent on Russian resources and thus weaken Russia's strategic position.

I fail to see how time is on Putin's side here. If he very slowly grinds down Ukraine that has to be terrible for Russia and its reputation around the world.

[Tamas]

Indeed, I think the "time is on Putin's side" argument is coming from people who are fatigued of the fight and its economic effects.

[Josquius]

Indeed, I think the "time is on Putin's side" argument is coming from people who are fatigued of the fight and its economic effects.

Or who have little confidence in the public at large's capacity to tolerate this.

As I see it time is sort of on Ukraines side... But its a fairly narrow window, they need to finish it before the next us election.

[alfred russel]

Keeping the Russians bogged down in Ukraine for a very long time seems like a win to me. And this will allow the invisible hand of capitalism to shift around the world economy to be less dependent on Russian resources and thus weaken Russia's strategic position.

It seems a lot of the "invisible hand of capitalism" is working to have supply chains reorient to russian resources being sold to asian interests and europe finding alternative sources of supply.

[grumbler]

Actually, the invisible hand is the market, not capitalism.  A socialist market economy would still benefit from the invisible hand.

[viper37]

The short Western attention span and lack of strategic patience in Iraq (19 years and counting) and Afghanistan (20 years)?  Putin does not have enough lifespan left to take advantage of that sort of impatience.

I guess it depends on how many pro-Russian Republicans are elected in the mid-terms.

[Admiral Yi]

But bigger point is that he has the dynamic backwards.  Ukraine is *HIS* Afghanistan, not the Wests.  All the West has to do is keeping dripping in aid and supplies while Russia bleeds.  Will there be some fatigue?  Sure.  But the contractor lobby will give political cover to a continuing aid flow, and no politician is going to worry about losing their job because they voted mil aid to Ukraine.

It has also been surprisingly cheap.  $54 billion just doesn't seem like much in this age of trillion dollar spending initiatives.

[Sheilbh]

I read Canada will send back those repaired turbines for Nordstream despite the sanctions. Lame.

And the irony is there are growing concerns that Russia won't turn Nordstream 1 back on anyway because it's now starting to use the energy weapon as Europe needs to re-build its gas stocks for winter. Le Maire has said that Europe needs to prepare for Russia to entirely shut off gas supply - apparently that's the French government's assessment of the "most likely" scenario. It certainly sounds plausible.

Putin has that as leverage and it's not like him to leave weakpoints unexploited.

[grumbler]

The short Western attention span and lack of strategic patience in Iraq (19 years and counting) and Afghanistan (20 years)?  Putin does not have enough lifespan left to take advantage of that sort of impatience.

I guess it depends on how many pro-Russian Republicans are elected in the mid-terms.

  The US is not "the West."  Pro-Russian Republicans are only applicable to the US.

[viper37]

The short Western attention span and lack of strategic patience in Iraq (19 years and counting) and Afghanistan (20 years)?  Putin does not have enough lifespan left to take advantage of that sort of impatience.

I guess it depends on how many pro-Russian Republicans are elected in the mid-terms.

  The US is not "the West."  Pro-Russian Republicans are only applicable to the US.

True, but the US is the biggest supporter of Ukraine right now.

[grumbler]

The short Western attention span and lack of strategic patience in Iraq (19 years and counting) and Afghanistan (20 years)?  Putin does not have enough lifespan left to take advantage of that sort of impatience.

I guess it depends on how many pro-Russian Republicans are elected in the mid-terms.

  The US is not "the West."  Pro-Russian Republicans are only applicable to the US.

True, but the US is the biggest supporter of Ukraine right now.

True, but the election of some pro-Russian Republicans in the US doesn't mean the end of support for Ukraine, even from the US.  Even Putin's paid stooges, like Tucker Carlson, have had to put an inch or more between their lips and Putin's anus.

[DGuller]

For now.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're just waiting for an opening to fuck Ukraine.  Russia is probably a lost cause to play up, but they can paint Ukraine as same shit, different colors.

[The Minsky Moment]

Seems to me Biden is getting more criticism from the right for being too easy on Russia than too tough.