Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

purely theoretical question: couldn't the Budapest Memorandum have been used as a reason to send in troops (only of signatories I guess though) to defend the country from aggression?

I think so, but that means American troops vs Russian troops which gets us into the escalating fighting which potentially leads to nuclear exchanges. Basically the main value of whatever treaty or alliance is in place is whether it'll deter Russia from attacking in the first place... and while the Budapest Memorandum technically could've triggered that sort of response (maybe), it didn't deter Putin because he (correctly) didn't think the US and the other signatories would throw down.

thanks. But then that more or less holds for every treaty.

Though the standoff and possible nucleair escalation is still very much on the cards. Putin -and/or the people around him- seem hellbent on finding a stick to beat NATO with.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The US claims the Ukranians have shot down two Il-76s. That's a couple hundred paratroops gone, just because of recklessness. Seen a video of a Russian POW (a kid) scared shitless claiming he was just doing traning and then shipped off to the front.

The Russian army doesn't give a fuck even about their own.

If they're telling people "you're just doing training" and then sending them to the front... that's not indicative of a high morale coherent effective force, I'd think.

And then you compare that to the Ukrainians who are very aware they're in an existential struggle and seem highly motivated.

I guess we may see how much of a difference morale makes in modern warfare.

I keep seeing that Moscow also brought in ca. 5000 Chechens "volunteers", though substantiating that claim is difficult. With less of a cultural and friendly connection between Ukrainians and Chechens, I'm wondering what their role would be. Doing the jobs that "regular" Russians might be too squeamish to do? Occupation duty?

warcrimes.

what else?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Do we care about Hungary on this? I don't think SWIFT is formally an EU Council decision (I might be wrong), it's not an EU institution.

My understanding is it's a purely US decision.

But Biden seems to think getting all of Europe on board is important.

The company is located in Belgium. So when it really comes down to it the goverment here can order it.
The US can of course impose sanction on the company forcing the same.

[merithyn]

This is kind of flip, but also apt.

The Ukraine & Russia crisis
In simple terms for those who have no idea what is going on.

-Ukraine used to be in an abusive
relationship with Russia, feeding him, letting him use her car, and giving him whatever he asked for until she built up the confidence to call it quits back in 1991.

-Since then, Ukraine has been working on herself, becoming a strong, independent woman with help from friends like France,
America, Poland, etc. offering her support, loaning her money, and helping her find her way.

-Ukraine has been enjoying being single for 30 years and looking forward to continuing to grow and create new friendships.

-Now Russia is the toxic Ex that it wants her back and doesn't want her meeting new people or creating any new relationships.

-A couple of weeks ago, Russia started sitting in front of Ukraine's house, and when her friends asked him what he was
doing there, he said, "Oh nothing, just getting a little bit of exercise in, that's all."

-After her friends told her that Russia was potentially getting ready to do something bad to her, he said, "They're lying, they just want you to be scared of me & that's not what it is."

-Yesterday, Russia broke into Ukraine's house, beating her up and "taking advantage" of her while on Livestream & double dog daring any of her friends to do something about it, and if they do want the smoke, Russia got that thang on him.

-@tommieleflore

[Iormlund]

I keep seeing that Moscow also brought in ca. 5000 Chechens "volunteers", though substantiating that claim is difficult. With less of a cultural and friendly connection between Ukrainians and Chechens, I'm wondering what their role would be. Doing the jobs that "regular" Russians might be too squeamish to do? Occupation duty?

warcrimes.

what else?

Yes. Those are likely terror troops to unleash if Plan B is deemed necessary.

[Duque de Bragança]

I keep seeing that Moscow also brought in ca. 5000 Chechens "volunteers", though substantiating that claim is difficult. With less of a cultural and friendly connection between Ukrainians and Chechens, I'm wondering what their role would be. Doing the jobs that "regular" Russians might be too squeamish to do? Occupation duty?

warcrimes.

what else?

Yes. Those are likely terror troops to unleash if Plan B is deemed necessary.

They would be be good as anti-partisan troops given their own experience in Chechnya.
I wonder what happened to the nationalist Chechens fighting on the Ukrainian side in 2014-15 as well, as I mentioned earlier. Foreign elements were supposed to be removed as per Minsk agreements.

[Syt]

Seems like only a handful of Covidiots have assembled at Heldenplatz so far. But they let a flag of the German Reich (blck-white-red) fly together with a Russian one:





EDIT: but someone brought a Ukrainian flag! ... no, wait, that's the flag of Lower Austria.

[Tamas]

  It is NOT going well for Putin:

The Kremlin has claimed that Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a halt to its offensive in Ukraine on Friday, expecting negotiations with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but told them to continue when that did not happen.

A government spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said the operation was resumed on Saturday afternoon after the Ukrainian leadership refused to negotiate, according to Reuters.

[Syt]

Saw a talking head on the BBC today saying that with the war going a lot worse than Putin would have expected, Russia getting kicked out of all the things, and the whole affair being quite unpopular even at home, even a palace coup might be in the cards. He drew parallels to Khrushchev who he said was finally ousted when he was deemed too unpredictable, and Putin might reach that point. But he also cautioned that the person replacing Putin might continue his nationalist course, just more pragmatically.

[celedhring]

It is NOT going well for Putin:

The Kremlin has claimed that Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a halt to its offensive in Ukraine on Friday, expecting negotiations with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but told them to continue when that did not happen.

A government spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said the operation was resumed on Saturday afternoon after the Ukrainian leadership refused to negotiate, according to Reuters.

"Our offensive is going slower than anticipated? Western lies! We just called a truce without telling anybody!"

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I'm guessing we'll see individuals travelling to Ukraine to help out with the war soonish too. Zelensky made the call, iirc, and if the fight against ISIS drew in westerners, this one will too.

[garbon]

Cyprus allegedly said they'd stop blocking the SWIFT ban. Which by my tally leaves Hungary as the last holdout. Glorious.

I see as of half an hour ago Hungary is no longer offside.

[Tamas]

Cyprus allegedly said they'd stop blocking the SWIFT ban. Which by my tally leaves Hungary as the last holdout. Glorious.

I see as of half an hour ago Hungary is no longer offside.

Orban is going to get some stern telling-off from his contact officer Vladimir P. on his next visit to Moscow.

[Syt]

Meawhile, some "influencers" ...

[Sheilbh]

My understanding is it's a purely US decision.

But Biden seems to think getting all of Europe on board is important.

The other way round - it's Belgian. The US was trying to get Iran removed from SWIFT for years without success. I believe it was only after legislation passed (but wasn't signed yet) sanctioning the directors of SWIFT that, the day after, the EU agreed to include SWIFT.

Sounds like everyone is in board with that in the EU this time too - I think Hungary was the last hold-out but they've come round.

[quoteSaw a talking head on the BBC today saying that with the war going a lot worse than Putin would have expected, Russia getting kicked out of all the things, and the whole affair being quite unpopular even at home, even a palace coup might be in the cards. He drew parallels to Khrushchev who he said was finally ousted when he was deemed too unpredictable, and Putin might reach that point. But he also cautioned that the person replacing Putin might continue his nationalist course, just more pragmatically.[/quote]
Interesting - I was thinking about that last night because it seems to me that Putin's isolation for the last two years probably means he has less direct control/contact with the rest of the government elite and it would be easier for them to plot around him if things went wrong. I'm not sure that's right as there'll be other internal controls I'm sure but on the face of it I feel like that's how a leader in a bubble for two years would work?

It is NOT going well for Putin:

It's still very early days - and I'm worried about the Russians moving strategy having realised this is going to be tougher than expected. But there is a bit of me that wonders if this goes the way of the Sino-Vietnamese war: fighting for a bit, negotiated settlement, Russia declares victory but history and the rest of the world sees that Ukraine won or at least fought their far bigger and more militarily advanced neighbour to a standstill?

I think so, but that means American troops vs Russian troops which gets us into the escalating fighting which potentially leads to nuclear exchanges. Basically the main value of whatever treaty or alliance is in place is whether it'll deter Russia from attacking in the first place... and while the Budapest Memorandum technically could've triggered that sort of response (maybe), it didn't deter Putin because he (correctly) didn't think the US and the other signatories would throw down.

Yeah there's loads of calls for the UK/NATO to establish a no fly zone - and ministers keep having to gently explain that you also need to police a no fly zone which the UK couldn't do alone and that it would involve confrontations with Russian pilots, and because they're jets everything would depend on the pilots because it would be too fast to allow for consultation/orders from politicians.

I hope this is true.

If Russia tried to take/cutoff Kyiv with just special forces and light units to me it'd indicate they really expected far less resistance.

It seems consistent with the news we're seeing everywhere. Not only that resistance is tougher but Russian morale doesn't seem great, they seem to be having logistical issues - there's loads of videos now of stranded vehicles that have run out of fuel. It doesn't seem to be going well I think Putin believed it and thought everything would collapse.

Separately mongers said he hopes once this ends soon that lots of Europeans visit Ukraine and I agree - it is a really interesting and fun country to visit. But the thing I'm struck with is how darkly funny the stuff from Ukraine is looking right now - I saw a video this morning of a guy pulling up to a stranded tank and telling them he can give them a tow back to Moscow, oh and by the way Russians are surrendering - they might want to think about it

But also the video of the woman cursing that soldier and telling him to put seeds in his pocket so when he dies in Ukraine at least sunflowers will grow. There is some spirit. And I suspect that side of things will have an effect on Russian troops if, like Putin, they were expecting to be walking into a "colony run by a puppet regime".