Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Back from the demo... it was pretty big. Hard to estimate, but big.

Had a pretty emotional impact, to be honest. One lady was doing a video call to someone in Ukraine, showing the people at the demo. I showed him my sign - "Canadians Support Ukraine" - and he broke down in tears.

I also had a chat with a Ukrainian lady, telling me about her friend who just gave birth. Two hours after giving birth, her and the baby had to go to a bomb shelter.

There were some nice signs from Russians and Belorussians and there were a good number of "Hong Kong stands with Ukraine" signs and a Taiwanese flag as well.

I mean, a demonstration doesn't change much, but hopefully the sentiment informs the actions of our democratically elected government. And hopefully it adds just a tiny bit to the morale of Ukrainians as well.

... one lady was collecting money to help women and children displaced by the fighting, as well as to buy body armour. Thinking about it, I'd be happy to give some money to put weapons in the hands of Ukrainians - if I could find a trustworthy way to do so.

[Sheilbh]

... one lady was collecting money to help women and children displaced by the fighting, as well as to buy body armour. Thinking about it, I'd be happy to give some money to put weapons in the hands of Ukrainians - if I could find a trustworthy way to do so.

The Ukrainian Institute has a helpful list of resources and links for donations - not sure if all trustworthy but it seems so:
https://ukrainianinstitute.org.uk/russias-war-against-ukraine-what-can-you-do-to-support-ukraine-ukrainians/

Edit: Looks like the Ukrainian government have set up a direct way of donating to the armed forces:
https://ukraine.ua/news/support-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/

[The Larch]

From Twitter, so unsure if true or not:

"We have captured around 200 Russian soldiers, some around 19 years old. Not trained at all. Badly equipped." Ukraninan Major General Borys Kremenetsky says. "We allow them to call their parents. Parents completely surprised."

[Valmy]

Look I obviously stand with Ukraine in this but in the fog of war you have to take all claims with a grain of salt. Even my new sig may totally be BS but it makes me feel better.

[Sheilbh]

Look I obviously stand with Ukraine in this but in the fog of war you have to take all claims with a grain of salt. Even my new sig may totally be BS but it makes me feel better.

It isn't - there's a recording of that. I think Larchy posted it

Edit: And he qualified it which is all we can do - because as you say even, or perhaps especially, in the social media age there's still a fog of war.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally on kleptocracy, I think this line from the White House on tonight's joint announcement of new sanctions could be very important in coming years if all the participants follow through (and put pressure on others):

This coming week, we will launch a multilateral Transatlantic task force to identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs – their yachts, their mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze under the law.

As I mentioned earlier a huge part of the issue with this is the assets are hidden (estimates are that about 10-20% of global GDP is held off-shore in secretive jurisdictions - it's there because it's organised crime, kleptocracy or tax evasion) and mapping them is going to be tough and require a lot of cooperation (and it is truly transatlantic). But this seems like it could be a very positive step and a very helpful precedent. It's like a piracy of the age of globailised capital, looting (often very poor) states

[HVC]

The best way to put a dent in it is to sanction and isolate Swiss banks. But I don't know how feasible that is.

[DGuller]

The best way to put a dent in it is to sanction and isolate Swiss banks. But I don't know how feasible that is.

I think it depends on the Russian behavior.  The more atrocities they commit, the more it's going to become a "you're either with us or you're against us" situation.  If US managed to get Cyprus onboard, which basically a money laundering enterprise with a country, then ultimately only hostile countries like China couldn't be brought onboard.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA

Ukrainian chats up Russian soldiers who have run out of gas.

[KRonn]

I wonder if shutting some Russian banks out of Swift made backfire a bit or a lot. Russia China and some other nations have been trying to replace the US dollar as the world's currency. If Swift is denied    then  if it could give more incentive for some of these nations to create their own form of Swift using other currencies. If The US dollar becomes undermined too severely then the US may suffer heavily  financially.

[HVC]

Not sure how Swift is tied to US currency. If I'm not mistaken I've transferred Cad dollars at work plenty.

As long as the saudis keep oil tied to USD you should be fine, yes?

[KRonn]

Hmm, if the Russian forces are really being held up will they then use even more severe weapons, causing great damage and loss of life. Or are they moving slowly on purpose as they bring up the heavier weapons. I'm glad to see Ukraine holding back the Russians, and I hope the Ukrainians can endure, but I can't help thinking what else might be in the works on the Russian side.

[KRonn]

Not sure how Swift is tied to US currency. If I'm not mistaken I've transferred Cad dollars at work plenty.

As long as the saudis keep oil tied to USD you should be fine, yes?

I'm also not clear on how the US dollar would be affected, but I've heard some analysts raising that concern.

[DGuller]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA

Ukrainian chats up Russian soldiers who have run out of gas.

It seems like a common theme that Russian soldiers don't know anything about the situation they've driven into.  Obviously they could be playing dumb, but I believe it's genuine.  I wonder if that's a tactic to avoid tactical intelligence leaks that's backfiring.

[KRonn]

I've been seeing a lot of footage, as we all have, of Ukrainian civilians trying to flee, or trying to fight, even the President and other officials taking up arms and all of it being seen by the world. I would think these scenes broadcast to the world have generated a lot of empathy for Ukraine. Putin becomes more and more of a pariah and taking Russia's reputation along with him. So it almost seems that whether Russia overwhelms Ukraine or not Putin loses.