Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I do wonder the nuance differences between "you stand with us", "almost there", and the various other assessments. I haven't followed the contributions and statements of each nation in detail to understand the differences.

My read:
"You stand with us" = you want full sanctions including oil and gas and/or have provided arms and are probably broadly supportive of Ukraine's EU ambitions. So the Baltics, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czechia, Croatia, Sweden. I think he then gets that France is pushing "you will stand for us", same with Romania and Greece (interesting to see those three aligned again).

The rest I'd assume is some variation of resisting sanctions, Ukrainian EU membership or either not sending arms, those arms not arriving or them turning out to be a little out of date/not maintained (which I believe has been an issue). I know in Ireland the "well, almost" has been received with some shock because Ireland's wanting to accept loads of refugees and is politically very supportive of Ukraine, I believe, including on sanctions - but it's militarily neutral so it won't send any military aid, has opted out of the EU program on that. I think back to Zelensky's line to Biden in the first days of this war "I need ammo, not a ride" and I think that is his overwhelming priority: either you're pushing to hurt Russia economically or you're sending supplies that allows Ukraine to fight.

The two that struck me were Hungary and Luxembourg - "we understand each other". As I mentioned Luxembourg's got a history of being very friendly with Russia and Bettel keeps having calls with Putin that I don't understand (Scholz, Macron, Michel - I get and think are probably a good idea). That one seemed a little pointed, although that may not be how it was intended

[celedhring]

You fools, failing was Russia's plan all along!

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400322829930500

Polina Ivanova
@polinaivanovva
·
25m
Replying to
@polinaivanovva
Firstly, the generals said Russia had always intended only to 'liberate' the Donbas, that was what it set out to do. It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.

Polina Ivanova
@polinaivanovva
Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said - these are not setbacks in other words, it's all part of the plan. And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk made territorial gains in the east.

Now, this moving of the goalposts seem to be very good news to me.

[Berkut]

The video of Zelensky going through all the EU countries - when he gets to Hungary is incredible:
https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?s=20&t=dVFmp9vkBqeetbMA4TA_yg

Damn, talk about the man rising to the occasion. Incredible.

[The Brain]

Very good that they're preparing to declare victory and go home. Jesus Christ though, how completely and utterly Russia sucks. God I hope the West keeps Russia on Ignore after the war.

[DGuller]

I was thinking that we haven't heard about any other Russian generals being killed lately, but I guess I should've been a little more patient.  Looks like another Lt. General bit the dust today.

[alfred russel]

I was thinking that we haven't heard about any other Russian generals being killed lately, but I guess I should've been a little more patient.  Looks like another Lt. General bit the dust today.

Despite losses, Russia still has plenty of officers in the bullpen. They haven't called up Mike Flynn yet, for example.

[celedhring]

Very good that they're preparing to declare victory and go home. Jesus Christ though, how completely and utterly Russia sucks. God I hope the West keeps Russia on Ignore after the war.

Yeah. That said, I think that the "go home" bit is going to be problematic, though.

[PJL]

The video of Zelensky going through all the EU countries - when he gets to Hungary is incredible:
https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?s=20&t=dVFmp9vkBqeetbMA4TA_yg

Damn, talk about the man rising to the occasion. Incredible.

In that respect, the Russians were absolutely right in going for a decapitation strike at the start. as Zelensky is Ukraine's most powerful weapon at their disposal. Thankfully due to their ineptness, it didn't come to pass.

[Barrister]

In that respect, the Russians were absolutely right in going for a decapitation strike at the start. as Zelensky is Ukraine's most powerful weapon at their disposal. Thankfully due to their ineptness, it didn't come to pass.

Zelensky was kind of seen as a joke internationally, and his approval rate was down to 23% right before the invasion.

This really is a situation where the circumstances make the man.

[Jacob]

It will be interesting to see how Ukraine and Zelenskyy responds if the Russians are indeed beginning to shift the goal posts to consolidate around Donbas.

Does Ukraine press an attack? Can they? Does it change the shape of international support (i.e. will it encourage those who'd like Ukraine to settle, to end this)?

Will Russian operations be more competent - or at least effective - in the new situation?

[The Brain]

Very good that they're preparing to declare victory and go home. Jesus Christ though, how completely and utterly Russia sucks. God I hope the West keeps Russia on Ignore after the war.

Yeah. That said, I think that the "go home" bit is going to be problematic, though.

I certainly hope that Ukraine wins a total victory and doesn't have to give up the Crimea and maybe more, but I dare not hope that it actually comes to pass.

[DGuller]

It sounds like the latest general was killed in the same place the previous general was killed in, and that's also the place where Ukrainians keep bombing shipments of Russian equipment.  I think Ukrainians found a spawn point to camp.

[Jacob]

It sounds like the latest general was killed in the same place the previous general was killed in, and that's also the place where Ukrainians keep bombing shipments of Russian equipment.  I think Ukrainians found a spawn point to camp.

Heh.

Do you have a source on the freshly killed general?

[DGuller]

I think accepting the loss of Crimea in exchange for peace and other territories may be a prudent plan for Ukraine, except for the fact that you can't be sure that Russians would give up on the idea of land corridor to Crimea.  You can make a case that for Ukraine, Crimea is a rotten limb they're better off amputating.

[Jacob]

I think accepting the loss of Crimea in exchange for peace and other territories may be a prudent plan for Ukraine, except for the fact that you can't be sure that Russians would give up on the idea of land corridor to Crimea.  You can make a case that for Ukraine, Crimea is a rotten limb they're better off amputating.

Rhetorically "rotten limb, better amputate" is a vivid and potentially effective image... but what's the basis for describing it like that?