Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[grumbler]

The conspiracy theory regarding the 1999 apartment building bombings was popular some time ago, but I think it died off along with most of its high profile proponents.

It was popular, and then support for it went out the window.

[Maladict]

It was popular, and then support for it fell out the window.

Fyp

FWIW, when I stayed in a fairly large Moscow apartment building in October '99, it turned out a fair amount of Chechens lived there. While there was a lot of tension in the city, the people in the building were all very relaxed, as it was understood the Chechens wouldn't blow up their own people. I don't recall anyone buying into the FSB theory.

[viper37]

More likely is Russia will use this time to consilidate their defense, reorganize their lines and make another push with everything they still have.

Only works if both sides agree to honor the ceasefire. Probably the only thing that's stopping the Ukrainians from mounting successful local counterattacks is Russian artillery holding them back. Doubt they'll go on a 3-day holiday and not fire a shell. And indeed the Ukrainians are reporting business as usual all along the front.

Yes, but I figure the Ukrainians could also use a day or two to repair their infrastructures and evaluate the situation.  Doesn't stop them from shelling the Russians, but they may not make a further push forward, which would give the Russians some room to to breath for a couple of days.  The Ukrainian army need more supplies right now, they are strained too.  Not as much as Russia, but they ain't equipped to pushed back the Russians up to Moscow right now.

[viper37]

Saw a suggestion that the "Christmas truce" was a ruse, that Russians would blow up some Orthodox churches (not sure with or without worshipers) in Donetsk, claim it was Ukraine, as justification for a broader mobilization.

A ruse, yes, but blowing up Orthodox churches, I'm dubious.  Even for Putin, it seems way too conspiracy-ish.

More likely is Russia will use this time to consilidate their defense, reorganize their lines and make another push with everything they still have.

Have you not heard the widely-shared view that the FSB and Putin (who was Prime Minister at the time) orchestrated the 1999 apartment bombings that were attributed to Chechen separatists, which thus setoff the second Chechen war?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory

Yes.  It is possible he is responsible.

But multiple Orthodox Churches today is another matter.

For one, his hold on Russia is more tenuous today than it was when he was a rising star in 1999.  Lots more suspicious would be cast on Russia itself if it would happen, and many less Russians would readily accept it was Ukrainians, a good propotion of which are themselves Orthodox, even if they are independent Churches.

Besides, Putin's power rest heavily on the Russian Orthodox Church approval of his regime.  Attacking another Orthodox Church would risk endangering this support if suspicions of his involvement would be raised.  Putin might want to try it as the ends justify the means, but others might not want to risk a full collapse of the State.  Killing a few of your own civilians is one thing, attacking the Church directly is another.

The Russian Orthodox Church doesn't really care about the people being killed, but where they are killed would make a helluvah lots of difference.  Way too risky.  It's like his friend's daughter.  It didn't turn out to be a Russian false flag operation after all, it was really a Ukrainian op, way behind their lines.  Clarifying: No, I do not think the Ukrainian army or Intelligence services are going to blow up an Orthodox church or churches either trying to frame the Russian for it.

[viper37]

The conspiracy theory regarding the 1999 apartment building bombings was popular some time ago, but I think it died off along with most of its high profile proponents.

It was popular, and then support for it went out the window.

Just like russian oligarchs and high ranking military officers?  It's a national past time in Russia or what?

[DGuller]

Yes.  It is possible he is responsible.

But multiple Orthodox Churches today is another matter.

For one, his hold on Russia is more tenuous today than it was when he was a rising star in 1999.  Lots more suspicious would be cast on Russia itself if it would happen, and many less Russians would readily accept it was Ukrainians, a good propotion of which are themselves Orthodox, even if they are independent Churches.

Besides, Putin's power rest heavily on the Russian Orthodox Church approval of his regime.  Attacking another Orthodox Church would risk endangering this support if suspicions of his involvement would be raised.  Putin might want to try it as the ends justify the means, but others might not want to risk a full collapse of the State.  Killing a few of your own civilians is one thing, attacking the Church directly is another.

The Russian Orthodox Church doesn't really care about the people being killed, but where they are killed would make a helluvah lots of difference.  Way too risky.  It's like his friend's daughter.  It didn't turn out to be a Russian false flag operation after all, it was really a Ukrainian op, way behind their lines.  Clarifying: No, I do not think the Ukrainian army or Intelligence services are going to blow up an Orthodox church or churches either trying to frame the Russian for it.

There is so much wrong with this that I don't even know where to start.  First of all, no one had a solid hold on Russia in 1999, much less Putin, who at that time was a puppet of oligarchs.  In fact, the Chechen war was restarted precisely to make a star out of Putin, who before the war was a bland unknown quantity, another one in a long line of prime ministers.

Second of all, Putin's power does not rest on Russian Orthodox Church approval in the least.  The Church is not in the position to dole out approval or disapproval of Putin, the Church is a total puppet of the state with no agency of its own.  The priests will blow up the churches themselves if Putin orders them to do it, though they would appreciate it if he would allow them to get all their Rolex watches out of them first (but if he won't, that's fine, they were just throwing the suggestions out there).

[Josquius]

Soviet ammo shouldn't be extremely complex and Ukraine is industrialised enough that it ought to be able to set up local production. I haven't read anything about that, have anyone else?

Edit: It would probably be far easier to finance steel and explosives for a Ukraininan factory for western nations.

AK ammo and basic shells and such sure.
I understand there are some more complex bits like Soviet rockets, spare parts for aircraft, etc.... Where once its gone its gone.

[Syt]

Putin looking super bored at Christmas mass.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1611480955868401674?s=20&t=SR4v3Xw0ARAiyWwBHrz5aQ

[DGuller]

Putin looking super bored at Christmas mass.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1611480955868401674?s=20&t=SR4v3Xw0ARAiyWwBHrz5aQ

I'm sure both of the FSB guys in this video can't wait for this spectacle to be over, but a job is a job.

[Josquius]

Putin looking super bored at Christmas mass.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1611480955868401674?s=20&t=SR4v3Xw0ARAiyWwBHrz5aQ

Honestly that looks like the Christmas he deserves. Almost like 3 ghosts visited him last night.

[celedhring]

My parents took me to Christmas mass once when I was a kid and it was one of the most boring times I've ever had, so I can weirdly relate to Putin for possibly the only time in my life.

[DGuller]

In my experience, one thing that Jews actually do better in these religious ceremonies is that they try to say something meaningful during it, so that even those who don't subscribe to their religion can get something insightful out of it.  My impression is that both Russian Orthodox and Catholic religious ceremonies are just entirely empty meaningless rituals that everyone goes through because they feel like they have to.  I'm not sure how the guy's wailing in that video with Putin is going to make anyone look at life differently in any way.

[Admiral Yi]

In my experience, one thing that Jews actually do better in these religious ceremonies is that they try to say something meaningful during it, so that even those who don't subscribe to their religion can get something insightful out of it.  My impression is that both Russian Orthodox and Catholic religious ceremonies are just entirely empty meaningless rituals that everyone goes through because they feel like they have to.  I'm not sure how the guy's wailing in that video with Putin is going to make anyone look at life differently in any way.

One thing Jews do worse (or at least one synagogue does) is turn away people on high holy days that are not paying members.

[viper37]

My parents took me to Christmas mass once when I was a kid and it was one of the most boring times I've ever had, so I can weirdly relate to Putin for possibly the only time in my life.

Once?
Isn't catholic religion important in Spain or something?  What was the point of expelling all Moors and Jews just to abandon your taditions a couple of centuries later!?!

Man, I had to go to mass every Sunday until my mid teens, and Christmas mass was a must until early adulthood since I was bringing my parents with me and they wanted to go.

Don't complain to me about having gone there once man!

[viper37]

Yes.  It is possible he is responsible.

But multiple Orthodox Churches today is another matter.

For one, his hold on Russia is more tenuous today than it was when he was a rising star in 1999.  Lots more suspicious would be cast on Russia itself if it would happen, and many less Russians would readily accept it was Ukrainians, a good propotion of which are themselves Orthodox, even if they are independent Churches.

Besides, Putin's power rest heavily on the Russian Orthodox Church approval of his regime.  Attacking another Orthodox Church would risk endangering this support if suspicions of his involvement would be raised.  Putin might want to try it as the ends justify the means, but others might not want to risk a full collapse of the State.  Killing a few of your own civilians is one thing, attacking the Church directly is another.

The Russian Orthodox Church doesn't really care about the people being killed, but where they are killed would make a helluvah lots of difference.  Way too risky.  It's like his friend's daughter.  It didn't turn out to be a Russian false flag operation after all, it was really a Ukrainian op, way behind their lines.  Clarifying: No, I do not think the Ukrainian army or Intelligence services are going to blow up an Orthodox church or churches either trying to frame the Russian for it.

There is so much wrong with this that I don't even know where to start.  First of all, no one had a solid hold on Russia in 1999, much less Putin, who at that time was a puppet of oligarchs.  In fact, the Chechen war was restarted precisely to make a star out of Putin, who before the war was a bland unknown quantity, another one in a long line of prime ministers.

Second of all, Putin's power does not rest on Russian Orthodox Church approval in the least.  The Church is not in the position to dole out approval or disapproval of Putin, the Church is a total puppet of the state with no agency of its own.  The priests will blow up the churches themselves if Putin orders them to do it, though they would appreciate it if he would allow them to get all their Rolex watches out of them first (but if he won't, that's fine, they were just throwing the suggestions out there).

My impression was that religion is still very important to many Russians?