Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Berkut]

I think GdM latching on to this is a lot more interesting than the ramblings of some Croatian politician nobody outside Croatia has ever heard of....

Oh yes, Biden is creating a crisis because Americans care so very very much about Ukraine. LOL.

What is fascinating is the lengths people will go to in order to dig up some justification for their pre-defined conclusions. I mean really - if you have to go to Croatia to find someone telling you what you want to hear, you should really evaluate your desperation for validation.

As far as whatever the guy is actually saying...Oh dear. We are on the verge of losing the support of the Croatian military! Whatever will NATO do????

[Gaijin de Moscu]

— In case of escalation between RU and UA, Croatia will withdraw every single of his soldiers from NATO;
— He sees the NATO military buildup and attributes the tensions to the internal U.S. politics rather than anything to do with RU or UA;
— He says UA has no place in NATO.

Internal US politics to what extent? What aspect? Nobody here gives a fuck about Ukraine or Russia, having anything to do with this situation at all only hurts the government. That seems completely insane.

I don't believe that for a second. This is Europe and our international partners demanding we do something. Our international interests is in the Pacific and looking out for China not this bullshit in this impoverished and rapidly shrinking corner of the world.

As far as people having a place in NATO well...what even is NATO anymore and why does one country or another have a place in it? What the fuck is he talking about?

Interesting, thank l you. Appreciate your thoughts.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Yeah, the internal politics one was definitely a wtf moment.

A person with even a passing knowledge of American politics would know that makes no sense; he's just spouting what he's told.

Thanks, Zoupa. Not sure who's telling him what to say, he's a President of a country, after all.

My perception of Croatian-Russian relationships was that they're long broken beyond any repair, so this caught my attention.

Thanks for the responses, they help calibrate my own perceptions.

[Sheilbh]

Why has a US ambassador to Ukraine not been appointed?

Because America uses a fair few ambassadorships (generally the more comfortable ones I think) as a way of rewarding political donors/supporters and they all require Senate approval. The US ambassador to the EU only got confirmed a few weeks ago and arrived in Brussels this week.

There's no ambassador to Ukraine, or for that matter Croatia or the UK, Italy, Australia, the Netherlands, India, South Africa, Brazil, Germany and a fair few other countries. The relationship ticks over because of the teams under the ambassador (so I don't think Ric Grennell did too much damage in his time in Berlin). But it is, from the outside, a bit weird given that we're already one year into Biden's term.

[Syt]

Comments from Croatians re: president's comments seem to hint that since the office has little real power it's just an attention grab for domestic consumption (which this guy apparently likes to do). Also, apparently a lot of Croatian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine in Donbass?

[celedhring]

Why has a US ambassador to Ukraine not been appointed?

Because America uses a fair few ambassadorships (generally the more comfortable ones I think) as a way of rewarding political donors/supporters and they all require Senate approval. The US ambassador to the EU only got confirmed a few weeks ago and arrived in Brussels this week.

There's no ambassador to Ukraine, or for that matter Croatia or the UK, Italy, Australia, the Netherlands, India, South Africa, Brazil, Germany and a fair few other countries. The relationship ticks over because of the teams under the ambassador (so I don't think Ric Grennell did too much damage in his time in Berlin). But it is, from the outside, a bit weird given that we're already one year into Biden's term.

I think it's a testament to how fractious politics are becoming over there. The Spanish ambassadorship is still vacant, and Trump took one year to appoint his ambassador. The Spanish ambassadorship is usually a pretty popular one for parking donors (we're not very important but it's a great place to live) and usually got filled rather quickly (Obama appointed his during his first week in office).

[The Brain]

It also means that Martim's lunch schedule is fairly empty these days.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - although I wonder how much is the bun fight between donors pre-appointment. Because some of those jobs are plum - as you say, Ambassador to Spain, or Ambassador to Italy must be very in demand appointments

[Gaijin de Moscu]

Comments from Croatians re: president's comments seem to hint that since the office has little real power it's just an attention grab for domestic consumption (which this guy apparently likes to do). Also, apparently a lot of Croatian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine in Donbass?

Yep, that's what I heard, too. Some Serbian volunteers were fighting for the separatists, and the Croatians were on the other side.

Apparently, that area has quite some old Serbian and Croatian villages, from the old days when entire military regiments moved there from Austria-Hungary to fight against the Ottomans on the Russian side. They ended up settling there with families.

I'm talking from memory, could be wrong.

[Valmy]

Why has a US ambassador to Ukraine not been appointed?

Because America uses a fair few ambassadorships (generally the more comfortable ones I think) as a way of rewarding political donors/supporters and they all require Senate approval. The US ambassador to the EU only got confirmed a few weeks ago and arrived in Brussels this week.

There's no ambassador to Ukraine, or for that matter Croatia or the UK, Italy, Australia, the Netherlands, India, South Africa, Brazil, Germany and a fair few other countries. The relationship ticks over because of the teams under the ambassador (so I don't think Ric Grennell did too much damage in his time in Berlin). But it is, from the outside, a bit weird given that we're already one year into Biden's term.

I think it's a testament to how fractious politics are becoming over there. The Spanish ambassadorship is still vacant, and Trump took one year to appoint his ambassador. The Spanish ambassadorship is usually a pretty popular one for parking donors (we're not very important but it's a great place to live) and usually got filled rather quickly (Obama appointed his during his first week in office).

Well both Trump and Biden had friendly Senates, at least for this kind of thing...but I guess it is possible we are just filibustering everything even simple ambassador appointments.

[viper37]

As far as whatever the guy is actually saying...Oh dear. We are on the verge of losing the support of the Croatian military! Whatever will NATO do????

It is worrying in the sense that Russia has a reach in Croatia as well as Serbia, and this could become a (another) point of conflict in the mid/long term future by escalating local tensions.

But it has no effect on the current crisis.

[Gaijin de Moscu]

The Ukrainian Minister of Defence joins his country's president and chief of security in doubting the impending Russian invasion:

https://www.5.ua/ru/myr/rf-ne-sozdala-ny-odnoi-udarnoi-hruppyrovky-kotoraia-svydetelstvovala-bi-o-veroiatnosty-nastuplenyia-mynystr-oboroni-266297.html

As translated by Google:

According to intelligence, the military of the Russian Federation did not create a single strike group, which would indicate the likelihood of an offensive. This was announced by Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov on the air of the program "Freedom of Speech" on ICTV TV channel, Ukrinform writes.

Reznikov noted: "As of today, the fact that we observe according to our intelligence, the fact that the intelligence of our partner countries observes, is about the same as in the spring of 2021 before Easter. Therefore, today, as of the moment, no strike group has been created by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, which would indicate that tomorrow they will go on the offensive.

He added that the Ukrainian military calculates various scenarios regarding the likelihood of the Russian Federation's offensive in order to know how to act. However, at present there is no such threat and there is no need to sow panic.

"When the military comments on certain scenarios, they, as the military, calculate all possible risks and threats because they are obliged to do so. It would be bad if they didn't. Our Armed Forces, our command, General Staff have worked out all scenarios of the worst option in order to know how they will act in the event of such a situation," Reznikov said.

It looks like by now, all the top Ukrainian and Russian officials of any relevance to this crisis have shared the same sentiment, echoed recently by Josep Borrell who said he saw no new info to fear an impending invasion.

What I'm concluding is that RU had been keeping a large amount of troops near its western borders since about 2008. Every 6 or 12 months, they conduct large-scale military exercises, sometimes with Belarus. That's why the heads of the UA security says "nothing is new."

Putin is preparing for a critical trip to China next week ahead of the Beijin olympics, so I guess he has other things on his mind. In my humble assessment, it would take a provocation of epic proportions to motivate RU to move to military action in the current environment. I pray that the 08.08.08 "playbook" when Putin was in China for the opening of the 2008 Beijin olympics doesn't inspire someone for such a provocation.

[Tamas]

 

[Gaijin de Moscu]

[Jacob]

Well let's hope that rogue "Ukrainian elements" do not stage a huge provocation against Russia, then.