Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

Just read Abramovitch is making a bid for Spanish side Valencia.
Glad to see the sanctions are working.

AFAIK it's an unsubstantiated internet rumour.

[Threviel]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513079795306962944

Kadyrov's Tik Tokers publish a war crime selfie (listen to the background). What a time to be alive...

I must say I am still under the effect of this. All the implications of the whole scene, just... wow

Fuck, you made me listen 

The most chilling is that for the one filming it probably didn't register, it was just normal everyday background noise to him.

[Malthus]

Can someone explain what the likely impact of the Russian loan default will be? How damaging is this for the Russian economy?

[The Minsky Moment]

It's not that Trump wouldn't support Ukraine, he might. It's that he, or any other retard republican, is so unpredictable. The US cannot be trusted, any help from there is a bonus. It's just too unpredictable.

No it is completely predictable.

Step 1 Trump starts talking "tough" - about how much better America is with nuclear than the Russians and what is the point of having these weapons if we don't use them against bad hombres and the Democrats were pussies for not using them.

At that point one of two things happens.  One possibility is that the Russians freak and a full scale nuclear exchange wipes out the planet.

The other possibility is a leader-to-leader summit is convened, at which point:

Step 2- Trump presents the Russians with a marketing video featuring music from Lee Greenwood and lush visuals of Trump buildings and gold courses.

Step 3 - After summit meetings with Putin, Trump gushes about what a great guy Putin is and how they are "in love."  Side comments about how "people are talking about" how antifa is organizing National Socialists in Ukraine.  Maduro involved?

Step 4 - Trump declares victory and says Russians have agreed to withdraw from Ukraine.  Says he has negotiated really really goodly trade deal with Russia that will bring 1 billion new jobs to America.  Totally coincidentally, the day after the summit, wikileaks releases big email drop of private emails of leading Democratic candidate for next election cycle.

Step 5- Russia does not withdraw from Ukraine and atrocities increase.  Trump and State TV alternatively deny the Russian actions or talk about putting down Ukrainian Antifa Nazis from Venezuela.  45% of US voters immediately parrot his rhetoric.

[The Minsky Moment]

Few roundup comments:

1. Germany holding back on sending Leopard tanks and advanced APCs is fairly reasonable. These are complicated weapon systems that are both expensive, necessary for Germany's own military and most importantly--completely useless right now to the Ukrainian military. It takes months not days or weeks to get a tank crew trained on an advanced MBT like that. I also don't think Germany has ever even committed to sending Leopards, they committed to working on sending a few hundred APCs they also have robust anti-tank guns on them, but Leopards are considered possible. The APCs are sitting in sort of mothball storage right now, so they don't directly take away from Germany's military to get them back to working order and ship them. But the question of where and how to train Ukrainians on these systems is the realistic thing. These are important things to figure out, but they matter in months not days or weeks--simply because such systems will only be useful to the Ukrainians in a longer time span and we have to figure out the logistics of training Ukrainian tank crews.

Good probability that this war could drag on for years.
If US/NATO have not already done so they should be implementing plans to get large numbers of top end equipment into Ukrainian hands and train cadres now.

[viper37]

Just read that Sweden and Finland are expected to join NATO by the summer.

If the Finns join there'll be a 70% majority in the Swedish parliament to join.

Gotta protect Sweden from Finnish aggressions

[Josephus]

It's not that Trump wouldn't support Ukraine, he might. It's that he, or any other retard republican, is so unpredictable. The US cannot be trusted, any help from there is a bonus. It's just too unpredictable.

No it is completely predictable.

Step 1 Trump starts talking "tough" - about how much better America is with nuclear than the Russians and what is the point of having these weapons if we don't use them against bad hombres and the Democrats were pussies for not using them.

At that point one of two things happens.  One possibility is that the Russians freak and a full scale nuclear exchange wipes out the planet.

The other possibility is a leader-to-leader summit is convened, at which point:

Step 2- Trump presents the Russians with a marketing video featuring music from Lee Greenwood and lush visuals of Trump buildings and gold courses.

Step 3 - After summit meetings with Putin, Trump gushes about what a great guy Putin is and how they are "in love."  Side comments about how "people are talking about" how antifa is organizing National Socialists in Ukraine.  Maduro involved?

Step 4 - Trump declares victory and says Russians have agreed to withdraw from Ukraine.  Says he has negotiated really really goodly trade deal with Russia that will bring 1 billion new jobs to America.  Totally coincidentally, the day after the summit, wikileaks releases big email drop of private emails of leading Democratic candidate for next election cycle.

Step 5- Russia does not withdraw from Ukraine and atrocities increase.  Trump and State TV alternatively deny the Russian actions or talk about putting down Ukrainian Antifa Nazis from Venezuela.  45% of US voters immediately parrot his rhetoric.

Funniest thing I've read all day

[Barrister]

Multiple Twitter reports of the use of chemical weapons against remaining defenders in Mariupol.  I would NOT take this story as in any way confirmed though.

[Sheilbh]

For Brits - important but distressing report on tonight's ITV News at Ten fro minvestigating three specific war crimes in Bucha. The article gives some of the report:
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-11/three-war-crimes-in-bucha-which-reflect-russias-senseless-murders-in-ukraine

[Josquius]

I increasingly get the impression the Russians are applying the Johnson-trump political approach to war.

They know they'll never be respected being conventional, no body will ever forgive them by the very fundamental nature of what they are doing. So best just go all out with war crime after war crime. Theres not enough hours in the day to disprove them all and if there's so many then a lot of people will become numb to it.

[Barrister]

I increasingly get the impression the Russians are applying the Johnson-trump political approach to war.

They know they'll never be respected being conventional, no body will ever forgive them by the very fundamental nature of what they are doing. So best just go all out with war crime after war crime. Theres not enough hours in the day to disprove them all and if there's so many then a lot of people will become numb to it.

Mostly agree, but disagree just on one point - that the Russians are just going "all out".

No, it's more the 'drip drip drip' approach.  *IF* this story is true, it's one smallish chemical weapons attack.  They'll wait to see if there is a response.  If the response is just "more sanctions" they'll probably do it again, and again.  Keep pushing the boundaries.

But they're not just going "fuck it, let's nuke Kyiv".

[Jacob]

I'm more partial to the explanation that the Russian military is built on a principle of brutalization to enforce compliance, and that extraction of wealth and resources are seen as a perk of authority... and that those are the mechanics of Russian political structures as well.

As such, inflicting brutality on the Ukrainian population is a natural expression of the structures of Russian command. The soldiers themeselve are habitually brutalized, and now they're in an enviorenment where they can brutalize in turn (rather than having to wait for promotion), so that's what many of them do. On top of that, there's the whole narrative that Ukrainians need to be "put in their place" and suffer, so there's an additional political justification on top of the built in brutality.

[PDH]

So "Orcs" is applicable.

[DGuller]

I'm more partial to the explanation that the Russian military is built on a principle of brutalization to enforce compliance, and that extraction of wealth and resources are seen as a perk of authority... and that those are the mechanics of Russian political structures as well.

As such, inflicting brutality on the Ukrainian population is a natural expression of the structures of Russian command. The soldiers themeselve are habitually brutalized, and now they're in an enviorenment where they can brutalize in turn (rather than having to wait for promotion), so that's what many of them do. On top of that, there's the whole narrative that Ukrainians need to be "put in their place" and suffer, so there's an additional political justification on top of the built in brutality.

I think there is a lot to that theory.  Russian society in general is a pyramid of brutality, especially for men.  You brutalize people below you and get brutalized by people above you.  There is no empathy involved, just power.

It's stupid to be pissed at the system: what you should do is climb the ladder so that you can brutalize more people, and take out your frustration out on those you're allowed to brutalize.  Even if you never manage to climb the societal ladder, there is always someone around to brutalize if you have a family.

[viper37]

Can someone explain what the likely impact of the Russian loan default will be? How damaging is this for the Russian economy?

Generally speaking, there is an higher risk of inflation and new loans will be prohibitive.

It is difficult to isolate this specific measure to the rest of Russia's woes due to sanctions.

First, they really have to default. it's not a given.  They have sufficient resources to pay if they want to.  They still get cash for their gaz, altough there are other supplies of oil elsewhere in the world.  They managed to stabilize their currency, unlike, say, Argentina in the 2000s.

A potential default alone might not be dramatic: inflation and higher interest rates on new loans.  It's not like a bank could seize Putin's assets in Russia or cash hidden in a fiscal paradise, or Bitcoins held by Russian ministers.

Higher cost of borrowing might be meaningless in the face of western sanctions since foreign government and financial institutions might no buy their debt* and they are already seeing a capital drain and minimal foreign investment to develop their industry.


*In case of bonds, the nominal value would be, say, 1000$, that is the value you receive after a fixed term, often 20 years.  When emitted, it is sold at less than the nominal amount, depending on the credit risk of the issuer.  Countries like US and Canada could emit their bonds at 950$, the investor will give Canada 950$ for every 1000$ of debt.  Than Canada will pay a bi-annual interest rate, currently set around 2.5%.  Assume that Russia had the same numbers pre-Ukraine war. Now, with the sanctions and the risk of default, it might sell its bonds for 700$ and give an interest rate of 12% (it really sucks not having Bloomberg, I could give you the real numbers right away...) so that there are any takers of new debt.  If they default on their current debt, then maybe the next one will 550$ for 1000$ in 20 years + 20% interest annually.  Since there will likely be less takers of debt, it might be even lower than that.  And it might be only India, China, and some Arab countries that agree to loan money since the risk of default is extremely high.

Maybe Russia will default on some occidental loans and chose to repay select investors.  In that case, it may get better deals with these investors while its credit rating tanks to junk bond status in the West, if they aren't already down to that level.  Junk bonds are bonds were do you not expect to be refunded the nominal price, but only take for a high coupon (bi annual interest) rate.  And investor would usually recuperate its investment within a few years worth of interests. Like loan sharking, but for countries and corporations

As for the specific effect on the internal economy of Russia, in case of default, the general borrowing rates to Russian banks would likely increase, inflation would be a possibility but Russia is already on everyone's blacklist, so a rarity of products is already expected.  Less products offered, higher costs of products, higher costs for borrowing.

Like I said, I am unsure as to how this will fit in with the current sanctions against Russia.