Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

It is completely beside the point of the upcoming war but it might give a bit of an insight into the level and quality of Ukrainian politics. This is from the west of the country, it was a meeting about recalling the leadership of the county hospital, attended by the county council members and the hospital workers. The ones "taking charge" of the meeting were from the far-right Soboda party.

Also nice touch is the automatic rifle on one of the arriving police officers. Things can't be too good if that's how they arrive to some hospital tussle.

https://youtu.be/YAjuNKHeg9M

[mongers]

It is completely beside the point of the upcoming war but it might give a bit of an insight into the level and quality of Ukrainian politics. This is from the west of the country, it was a meeting about recalling the leadership of the county hospital, attended by the county council members and the hospital workers. The ones "taking charge" of the meeting were from the far-right Soboda party.

Also nice touch is the automatic rifle on one of the arriving police officers. Things can't be too good if that's how they arrive to some hospital tussle.

https://youtu.be/YAjuNKHeg9M

Are you suggesting that Ukraine is a 'failing state', even before the invasion?

[Grey Fox]

Are Ukrainians man not allowed to have hair?

[Tamas]

It is completely beside the point of the upcoming war but it might give a bit of an insight into the level and quality of Ukrainian politics. This is from the west of the country, it was a meeting about recalling the leadership of the county hospital, attended by the county council members and the hospital workers. The ones "taking charge" of the meeting were from the far-right Soboda party.

Also nice touch is the automatic rifle on one of the arriving police officers. Things can't be too good if that's how they arrive to some hospital tussle.

https://youtu.be/YAjuNKHeg9M

Are you suggesting that Ukraine is a 'failing state', even before the invasion?

Maybe, but to be clear even if they are a failing state it doesn't remotely justify Russian aggression. But it should serve an example for tempering our expectations when it comes to both organised and guerilla opposition to the eventual Russian attack. They probably won't be even close as terrible as Iraq against the US, but I am having trouble seeing them as efficiently rallying their country for such a horrid and gargantuan task. Hope to be proven very wrong, though.

[Syt]

[The Larch]

Are Ukrainians man not allowed to have hair?

I have a Polish friend who moved to Spain a while ago and jokingly said that one of her reasons to do so was that here men were allowed to have other haircuts besides shaved and buzz cut. Maybe Ukraine is in a similar capilary situation.

On a serious note, the fact that thuggish far-right nationalistic parties have such a prominent position in current Ukranian society (even though politically they're somehow irrelevant, AFAIK) or that the Ukranian army still features units like the Azov Battalion, is certainly worrying, and something that plays in the hands of Russian propaganda about Ukraine being a fascist state.

[Tamas]

Trying to follow Putin's security council meeting via Twittered Bloomberg feeds. Sounds like theatre to show a reluctant Protector of All Russians deciding for action against their better judgement, but let's see how it ends.

[The Larch]

Trying to follow Putin's security council meeting via Twittered Bloomberg feeds. Sounds like theatre to show a reluctant Protector of All Russians deciding for action against their better judgement, but let's see how it ends.

I saw a short video of that meeting on Twitter and I must admit that the theatrical performances are great, with Putin as Monarch summoning his different advisors and asking them questions to help him make up his mind. He's only missing the Tsarist regalia.

[celedhring]

Looking at people on twitter following this, it seems the language of the meeting is geared towards recognizing the two DPRs and moving in.

[Sheilbh]

On a serious note, the fact that thuggish far-right nationalistic parties have such a prominent position in current Ukranian society (even though politically they're somehow irrelevant, AFAIK) or that the Ukranian army still features units like the Azov Battalion, is certainly worrying, and something that plays in the hands of Russian propaganda about Ukraine being a fascist state.

It's the standard tankie line here - that supporting Ukraine = supporting a neo-fascist state.

It is broadly nonsense. Svoboda peaked at 10% of the vote a decade ago and neither it nor the other main far-right party have got over 5% of the vote since. In terms of parliamentary/political success for the far right - that's pretty low compared with most Eastern or Western European countries.

I think there's more concern around the role they play in security agencies and the army - again, not a concern that's totally alien to the rest of Europe (including Russia - for example the Wagner Group). It's a problem and it will probably be even more so if there was an invasion and resistance. But while I slightly cringe every time I see the Bandera flag at Ukrainian rallies, I think there's a very large part of messaging from Russia and the tankie community about this that is just not right if you compare Ukraine with other countries.

Also it's part of a wider Russian narrative around the war and memorialisation in Eastern Europe - and it is complex/difficult - but I think the Russian narrative that it's just reflective of neo-fascist tendencies is clearly incredibly self-serving.

Looking at people on twitter following this, it seems the language of the meeting is geared towards recognizing the two DPRs and moving in.

It's absolutely incredible - it's like peace or war in Europe decided by an episode of Dragon's Den. Apparently there used to be a (big) table around which they would at least give the appearance of discussions but, with covid, they're now all sat at least 20 feet from Putin who looks more like a headmaster hearing student presentations. It's surreal - can't help but feel the purpose is to make everyone in the leading group around Putin dip their hands in the blood so if this goes wrong it's not just Putin's responsibility, they all had a chance to speak up and none of them said "no".

[Sheilbh]

Also possibly inadvertantly revealing moment that maybe went off-script (it seems Putin is pushing the more mealy-mouthed to come out and say clearly they support this):

Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence, suggests using potential DNR/LNR recognition as a threat to make Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements.

Then it gets astonishing.
Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition?
Naryshkin: I will
Putin: You will or you do?
Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia.
Putin: That's not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence?
Naryshkin, flustered: Yes

That's tomorrow's meeting.

Edit: Also slightly alarming moment when Shoigu pointed to Zelenskiy's reference to the Budapest memorandum in 1994 as being a sign that nuclear weapons might "appear" in Ukraine and that Ukraine would be a bigger threat than North Korea or Iran because of how easily they could nuclearise given their Soviet tech and know-how.

[HVC]

Also possibly inadvertantly revealing moment that maybe went off-script (it seems Putin is pushing the more mealy-mouthed to come out and say clearly they support this):

Sergei Naryshkin, head of foreign intelligence, suggests using potential DNR/LNR recognition as a threat to make Ukraine fulfill the Minsk agreements.

Then it gets astonishing.
Putin: speak clearly, do you support recognition?
Naryshkin: I will
Putin: You will or you do?
Naryshkin: I support bringing them into Russia.
Putin: That's not what we are discussing! Do you support recognizing independence?
Naryshkin, flustered: Yes

That's tomorrow's meeting.

Edit: Also slightly alarming moment when Shoigu pointed to Zelenskiy's reference to the Budapest memorandum in 1994 as being a sign that nuclear weapons might "appear" in Ukraine and that Ukraine would be a bigger threat than North Korea or Iran because of how easily they could nuclearise given their Soviet tech and know-how.

Someone's getting photoshopped out of pictures soon.

[Tamas]

I saw a mention of allegedly a watch on a minister's arm showing time 5 hours earlier than the supposed "live" footage, I wonder if that's true.

[Zanza]

I wonder what they are waiting for...
This transparent bullshit will not convince anybody anyway and presumably after months of build- up their forces should be in place.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder what they are waiting for...
This transparent bullshit will not convince anybody anyway and presumably after months of build- up their forces should be in place.

I think today was just about that thing Stalin used to do when he made all the Politburo sign death warrants.

Also apparently it wasn't just Shoigu who mentioned the threat of Ukraine getting nuclear arms or building a dirty bomb - so I wonder if that's another pretext that's being developed. Plus I imagine some domestic consumption but I've no idea how effective that or this format would be.