Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Maladict]

They'll probably wait until right after the Olympics this time, and claim moral high ground.

[Tamas]

Vladimir Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said today that there was no "point for Russia attacking anyone" urging Western partners to "come to reason".

"We urge you to ask yourself the question: what is the point of Russia attacking anyone?," Peskov said in a television interview aired on the state-run Rossia 1 broadcaster.

The longtime spokesman of Putin also slammed the West for "not being very good in history," claiming that Russia has never invaded another country.

"We remind you that Russia has never attacked anyone throughout its history. And Russia, which has survived so many wars, is the last country in Europe that wants to speak at all, even pronounce the word 'war'".

Asked about the situation in the Donbas, Peskov warned that any "any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences."

[DGuller]

What's the weather forecast in that part of the world?

High chance of grad all throughout Ukraine in the next seven days.

[Josquius]

Russia has never attacked anybody....

[grumbler]

Russia has never attacked anybody....

he just forgot to add the word "today."

[Berkut]

Vladimir Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said today that there was no "point for Russia attacking anyone" urging Western partners to "come to reason".

"We urge you to ask yourself the question: what is the point of Russia attacking anyone?," Peskov said in a television interview aired on the state-run Rossia 1 broadcaster.

The longtime spokesman of Putin also slammed the West for "not being very good in history," claiming that Russia has never invaded another country.

"We remind you that Russia has never attacked anyone throughout its history. And Russia, which has survived so many wars, is the last country in Europe that wants to speak at all, even pronounce the word 'war'".

Asked about the situation in the Donbas, Peskov warned that any "any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences."

...and this is *exactly* what I meant when I said even the Russians don't believe their own bullshit about how their concerns about being invaded are based in history.

It is just an excuse to keep an army around big enough so they can invade their neighbors should they wish it, and at least threaten to do so in order to force compliance and vassal status.

[Syt]

With the "maneuvers" extended for now - is there any indication of how well stocked Russian supplies would be for a prolonged campaign? Obviously they can keep use of material down during these "exercises", and they wouldn't be reliant on import of oil/fuel from other countries, but how long could Russia keep an army in the field at this point?

[Syt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-putin-agree-take-action-preserve-peace-elysee-2022-02-20/

February 20, 2022 - 15:52

PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed in a call on Sunday on the need to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, Macron's office said on Sunday.

The two countries' foreign ministers will meet in the coming days to that effect and will work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies to establish a new security order in Europe, the Elysee palace said.

[Tamas]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-putin-agree-take-action-preserve-peace-elysee-2022-02-20/

February 20, 2022 - 15:52

PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed in a call on Sunday on the need to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, Macron's office said on Sunday.

The two countries' foreign ministers will meet in the coming days to that effect and will work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies to establish a new security order in Europe, the Elysee palace said.

Peace in our time! Thanks France!

[Josquius]

So, theory of the day- this isn't about Ukraine. Anything they get out of scaring Ukraine is a bonus. Anschluss with Belarus was always the main goal.

[Sheilbh]

Peace in our time! Thanks France!

So far Macron has very closely coordinated with other allies and with Ukraine. But the Elysee have pretty consistently oversold their meetings/outcomes with Putin. I think partly that's Macron's style with everything and partly I wonder if there's an attempt to bounce Putin into something (I think the Elyses did similar with meeting with Trump where they would get the statement out first).

We'll see but I suspect that may be happening again as apparently the Kremlin read out of the call doesn't include any language on a new order of peace and security in Europe. The rest is a set of complaints, denunciations and threats with a willingness to talk in the Normandy format. The Russian Foreign Ministry have said the Kremlin statement is complete and comprehensive and anything else (such as in the Elysee's statement) are just "interpretations".

Again I actually think the Kremlin likes this. In the same way as I think Lavrov deliberately tries to troll and then humiliate Western foreign ministers (the most extreme in my mind is when Russia announced itt was expelling about 30 European diplomats for spying while Josep Borrell was doing the press conference with Lavrov). Similarly I think they're quite happy to let Western leaders brief positive calls (and they may well have been positive) or hint at breakthroughs only to undermine them immediately.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So, theory of the day- this isn't about Ukraine. Anything they get out of scaring Ukraine is a bonus. Anschluss with Belarus was always the main goal.

fake referendum within the year.
results: 97% in favour

[celedhring]

Shocking developments:

Joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine were due to end today but the Belarusian defense ministry has announced that they will continue.

I think they WERE going to attack on the 16th but got thrown off by the US just coming out and saying they knew the date. Question is how long are they going to wait? What's the weather forecast in that part of the world?

I guess the trick is for Biden to keep saying they'll attack so they can "own the west" by pushing it back?

[Jacob]

So it looks like the West and Ukraine are not going to concede on the "we promise Ukraine will NEVER join NATO" point. Eventually Russia will have to actually move on this, or deescalate a bit. Or I suppose, they could keep this "ready to start a war on five minutes notice" posture for a long time?

[grumbler]

So it looks like the West and Ukraine are not going to concede on the "we promise Ukraine will NEVER join NATO" point. Eventually Russia will have to actually move on this, or deescalate a bit. Or I suppose, they could keep this "ready to start a war on five minutes notice" posture for a long time?

It is much more expensive and difficult for an offensive force to be on standby five than a defensive force.  The offensive force essentially has to be in jump-off positions to be on standby five, while the defensive force just sits in the defenses.

You cannot do routine maintenance, troop rotation, training, etc while in ready five.  The longer you stay in ready five, the bigger the hit on readiness when you relax from that, as deferred maintenance, troop rotations, etc come due along with regular maintenance, troop rotation, etc.  This is going to be especially true of a conscript army, where you are losing a chunk of guys to un-delayable expiration of conscription periods.