Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I don't want to retroactive say I had the position that we should leave NATO after the conclusion of the cold war. It would obviously be a very bad signal to Russia to leave it at this exact moment. So I'll just say that in hindsight, it would have been better to transform NATO from a defensive alliance to something of a military cooperative and at the least give it a new name. If NATO didn't exist, Ukraine would still want closer ties with the west, but the explosive issue of Ukraine joining NATO, with all the baggage of NATO's association with the cold war, would be off the table.

After Putin went crazy and got "re-elected" in 2012, he was always going to go after Ukraine if they went towards Europe. NATO or no NATO, on or off the table, if you believe that NATO fears have somehow pushed putin into a corner, I suggest you stop drinking the muscovy kool-aid.

Indeed. If it wasn't nato it would have been the EU as an excuse. Or some pigeon shitting on vlad's limo.
And if you remember, the 2014 revolution was triggered by Russian meddling in the association treaty with the eu

[Tamas]

I can't think of any parties for whom the Nord stream thing would be a benefit in the sense of what seems to be a good risk/reward ratio.

I would be willing to rule Russia out. It is imperative for them to be able to deliver gas without hickups when they want to. If they cannot deliver the gas Germany needs then they cannot blackmail Germany. But of course its not impossible they did blow it up to sow distrust among allies precisely because of my line of thinking.

To be fair the US would benefit from destroying the pipelines, it would create a clear-cut situation as per above - no Russian gas whether Russia is willing to send it or not. But it sounds to me like an immense risk - if proof would be found of the Americans doing it, that could very well destroy the anti-Russian cooperation, because if people start believing the US vs Russia rather than Russia against Ukraine narrative (which Russia and all their far-right allies are pushing), they will stop accepting to be cold in winter.

Same goes for Poland. I'd get the why but surely they could see the immense risk taken to ruin what is now a war for the West to lose.

[celedhring]

Do you need sophisticated equipment to pull this off? IIRC the Baltic is quite shallow. It might be a non-state actor.

[Josquius]

I guess I  can see a Russian motivation. If its controlled sabotage that can be repaired (they hope) then its a move they can take after they've already took the final step of cutting off the gas.
You're not just banned, you're super mega ultra banned!

Not sure I can see an American motive too much....I guess it depends how they weigh up the value of Russia getting money from gas purchases vs. Europe's potential wavering amidst high guess prices.

[The Larch]

Russia to formally annex occupied regions in Ukraine on Friday
Vladimir Putin will sign a decree annexing four occupied regions in Ukraine tomorrow, the Kremlin has announced.

Russian state-owned news agency Tass cites Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, as saying that the ceremony of the signing of agreements into the Russian Federation will be held on Friday at 3pm Moscow time.

The Russian president will hold a signing ceremony in the Kremlin, after which he is expected to give a major speech and meet with Moscow-appointed administrators of the Ukrainian regions, Peskov said.

[Legbiter]

Looks like members of the Volkssturm but without the 15 year olds.

Won't change the trajectory of the war but will lengthen it by some months.

[mongers]

Russia to formally annex occupied regions in Ukraine on Friday
Vladimir Putin will sign a decree annexing four occupied regions in Ukraine tomorrow, the Kremlin has announced.

Russian state-owned news agency Tass cites Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, as saying that the ceremony of the signing of agreements into the Russian Federation will be held on Friday at 3pm Moscow time.

The Russian president will hold a signing ceremony in the Kremlin, after which he is expected to give a major speech and meet with Moscow-appointed administrators of the Ukrainian regions, Peskov said.

How soon after does the demonstration nuke fly?

Before or after the next inevitable reversal on the battlefields?

[Tamas]

On the news of the upcoming "annexations" and the certainty of being pushed to the brink of WW3 by Russia, I am back to the same Russian doomer post-punk playlist, ironically fitting the resignation I feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbqXlWQpwBc&list=PLuEGeaPM0Zpi3UHOBzj4kyVPL0KcAEVvp&index=14&t=2371s

[Grey Fox]

Other than the possible nuclear exchange it's going to be a really short ww3.

[Legbiter]

Russian mobilization, day 9...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1575458737971773440

 

[Jacob]

Do you need sophisticated equipment to pull this off? IIRC the Baltic is quite shallow. It might be a non-state actor.

I believe it's a depth of about 70-80 m in the area.

[celedhring]

[crazy canuck]

The Russians already played the "technical problems" card to stop deliveries without suffering penalties for failure to fulfill contracts.  They can't play that card again.  They could have played the force majeure card, though.

There are a lot of commercial contracts between Western companies and Russian entities which have either been suspended or termination through the invocation of force majuere by the Western companies, relying on the no trade orders of their various governments.

The Russian counterparts are sometimes taking the position that there has been a breach of contract. Any of those contracts have Russia as the forum for the dispute resolution process.  There is likely going to be a rash of breach cases heard in Russian courts.  The Russians might not want to rely on the principle themselves.  They may be foolish enough to think that a court in a Western jurisdiction would actually enforce the Russian judgment.

[Jacob]

Interesting read in the New Yorker, based on War Termination Studies - a field I'd never heard about before: https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end

[Zanza]

I have actually not seen Germany being blamed so far.