Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

Meanwhile on Austrian news:



Those last few hours seem to have been harsh on Vlad.

[Syt]

Fun article from Neues Deutschland from 1993. (During GDR times, ND was the official newspaper of the SED and they're still on the far left)

https://www.nd-aktuell.de/artikel/461493.pinochet-als-vorbild.html

Pinochet as a model

31st December, 1993

St Petersburg (ND). Vladimir Putin, Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburg and Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Relations in the city of six million, made it clear to German business representatives that a military dictatorship based on the Chilean model would be the desirable solution to Russia's current political problems. This is reported by WDR in the TV feature "Aufbruch nach Osten" (Monday, January 3, 1994, WEST 3 from 9:15 p.m. to 9:45 p.m.). Putin answered questions from representatives of BASF, Dresdner Bank, Alcatel and others who met in the former GDR consulate in St Petersburg.

Putin distinguished between "necessary" and "criminal" violence. Political violence is criminal if it aims to eliminate free-market conditions, "necessary" if it promotes or protects private capital investments. In view of the difficult private-sector path, he, Putin, expressly approves of any preparations by Yeltsin and the military to bring about a dictatorship based on the Pinochet model. Putin's remarks were received with friendly applause both by the German company representatives and by the deputy German Consul General present.

[The Brain]

Medvedev's take on NS2:

Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussiaE
Russia government official
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

Oh no!

Anyway...

[viper37]

I wasn't aware of the Nova Russia claims until you guys posted the map. Seems quite likely thats the goal, then. Credit where credit due Putin has managed to confuse the West by initially only using the rebel held turf as staging area. Now all he will get is a few sternly worded letters while he prepares for the proper invasion. Let's hope the Ukrainians put the time to good use and that the US continues the weapon shipments.

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

[Sheilbh]

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

That last point slightly worries me because I'm fully supportive of arming Ukraine now so its defence forces area  deterrent. If there's an invasion I'm really not sure arming Ukrainians/an insurgency would be the right thing to do because we know what the Russian response to that type of war looks like from Chechnya and Syria. There would be huge civililan cost and I'm not sure it'd be right to arm people knowing what the likely outcome would be.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I wasn't aware of the Nova Russia claims until you guys posted the map. Seems quite likely thats the goal, then. Credit where credit due Putin has managed to confuse the West by initially only using the rebel held turf as staging area. Now all he will get is a few sternly worded letters while he prepares for the proper invasion. Let's hope the Ukrainians put the time to good use and that the US continues the weapon shipments.

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

in that case they might do well to remember the nazis.

[Tamas]

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

That last point slightly worries me because I'm fully supportive of arming Ukraine now so its defence forces area  deterrent. If there's an invasion I'm really not sure arming Ukrainians/an insurgency would be the right thing to do because we know what the Russian response to that type of war looks like from Chechnya and Syria. There would be huge civililan cost and I'm not sure it'd be right to arm people knowing what the likely outcome would be.

That's a bit of a backward thinking though isn't it. The threat of violence should make them submit then?

[Threviel]

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

That last point slightly worries me because I'm fully supportive of arming Ukraine now so its defence forces area  deterrent. If there's an invasion I'm really not sure arming Ukrainians/an insurgency would be the right thing to do because we know what the Russian response to that type of war looks like from Chechnya and Syria. There would be huge civililan cost and I'm not sure it'd be right to arm people knowing what the likely outcome would be.

I'd rather arm the Ukrainians and let them die than having Swedes die if it drains the resources of Russia.

[Duque de Bragança]

Very impressive.  I had never heard Luxembourgeois before.  Sounds like less grumpy German. 

Is it related to Dutch?

Related to Dutch yes, but German is closer, as it is a German dialect. But then German and Dutch are related. 

[The Brain]

Submit and let the Russians do a second Holodomor may not lead to less suffering...

[Duque de Bragança]

Medvedev's take on NS2:

Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussiaE
Russia government official
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

Oh no!

Anyway...

OTOH, Norway, Qatar and Algeria must really be happy now.

[Zanza]

Medvedev's take on NS2:

Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussiaE
Russia government official
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!

We can always subsidize energy in the EU as we have a working economy. What's Russia's alternative? Becoming dependent on China as customer? After huge investments in New pipelines in that direction...

[Josquius]

I do need a new boiler.
Should I be considering a fuel pump afterall?
Seems it would make economic sense if I were to live here 10 years but in the short term...

Ukraine has no navy and no air force.  The resistance they will offer will be minimal.  Russians aren't Americans, if one of their base is attacked, they will raze an entire village and keep going until there's no one left standing to oppose them.

That last point slightly worries me because I'm fully supportive of arming Ukraine now so its defence forces area  deterrent. If there's an invasion I'm really not sure arming Ukrainians/an insurgency would be the right thing to do because we know what the Russian response to that type of war looks like from Chechnya and Syria. There would be huge civililan cost and I'm not sure it'd be right to arm people knowing what the likely outcome would be.

That's a bit of a backward thinking though isn't it. The threat of violence should make them submit then?

Eh, it is a quandary.
Should Ukraine be allowed its independence? 110% yes.
But if Russia conquers it would it be better for the people there that its basically a normal part of Russia or a war-torn hell hole? Definitely the former.
But then would the threat of the latter be enough to stop either of them being an option and keep the ideal choice of Ukraine choosing its own destiny?

[Valmy]

Russia has spent considerable effort cutting all their economic ties to the West. Europe should probably reciprocate that effort.

[The Brain]

But if Russia conquers it would it be better for the people there that its basically a normal part of Russia or a war-torn hell hole? Definitely the former.

Not for the guys being Katyned. And for the rest, being conquered subjects in an autocratic hellhole in an economic death spiral and having their language and culture eradicated would kinda suck ass. Remember that they'd be part of a Russia that essentially has gone full North Korea in its relations with the West.