Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[DGuller]

I wonder why the US military stuff is so much more expensive?  Is it because we're willing to pay much more for marginally better performance, whereas countries like Ukraine don't have the luxury?  Is it higher labor costs?  Is it R&D expenses that aren't removed from per-unit costs even after they're recouped?

Where are you getting the idea that US stuff is so much more expensive?  We're not just replacing their procurement budget (which I'm willing to bet was pretty small), we're throwing stuff at them they've never had before.

Not apples to apples comparison, but the Javelin missile (without the rest of the system) costs $80k.  Stugna-P missile costs $20k.  I understand that one is man portable, and the other is a system you have to set up, but missiles should be somewhat more comparable.

[Zanza]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZSzs53xmSY

Germany is the bad guy.

FT graphic below does not fit the narrative...

[Barrister]

What's up with Netherlands?  I thought they were an oil-producing state?

[Admiral Yi]

FT graphic below does not fit the narrative...

You understand I was being ironic, right?

[Jacob]

Not apples to apples comparison, but the Javelin missile (without the rest of the system) costs $80k.  Stugna-P missile costs $20k.  I understand that one is man portable, and the other is a system you have to set up, but missiles should be somewhat more comparable.

I'm no expert, but on the face of it a few things suggest themselves as explaining different pricetags between a Javelin and a Stugna-P.

- Different labour costs
- Different raw materials and raw material costs
- Different ways for stakeholders to extract profit from the procurement process
- Different timelines for development
- Different safety requirements
- Different logistics benchmarks for the final product
- Different maintance requirements
- Different interoperability requirements
- Different testing requirements
- Different operational requirements
- Different cost calculation bases in play
- Different economies of scale
- Different component sub-systems (with each of the above applying at every level)

[Zanza]

@Barrister:
  They produce gas. But just like many other such statistics, this one is misleading as well. Rotterdam imports the oil maybe, but then sells crude or the refined products to e.g. Germany.  Just like Poland can withstand Russia's Jamal pipeline embargo because they get has from Germany, imported via Nordstream 1 of course...

[Admiral Yi]

What's up with Netherlands?  I thought they were an oil-producing state?

I've never heard that.  I have read about the "Dutch disease" in economics texts, which is about their efficient refinery sector sucking resources from the rest of the economy.

[Sheilbh]

What's up with Netherlands?  I thought they were an oil-producing state?

It was a puzzle in the export figures too - I think it's that Rotterdam has a lot of oil refineries and chemicals plants. They have north sea gas and maybe some oil but they're still net importers (which then gets re-exported across the EU).

France is a surprise - presumably oil?

Curious gap on Czechia, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary which are all the more dependent states (and from what I've read Slovakia, Austria and Hungary - plus Germany - are the countries where companies have tried to set up rouble accounts with the non-sanctioned GazPromBank in Switzerland).

[Barrister]

What's up with Netherlands?  I thought they were an oil-producing state?

I've never heard that.  I have read about the "Dutch disease" in economics texts, which is about their efficient refinery sector sucking resources from the rest of the economy.

I always heard it related to the discovery of north sea gas by the Netherlands.  Googling the term "dutch disease" confirms this understanding.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutchdisease.asp

But I guess these days production is not enough to make up for consumption.

[Admiral Yi]

hmmm

[The Larch]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

[Sheilbh]

Although not sure how the map matches this chart - from the same article and original source (CREEA) - I've probably missed something very obvious. But it helpfully has a breakdown for the Dutch:

[Tamas]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

Propaganda works, though. If you are a Russian not consuming any of the dwindling non-government news sources, you are under mortal attack by the West, on the brink of having to use nuclear weapons.

[celedhring]

So... some speculation that Putin will use May 9th to escalate and possibly enact general mobilization. Reportedly, internal Russian rhetoric is increasingly casting the war as an existential struggle for Russia vs NATO, as opposed to a local "special operation". I believe this is correct. Putin's shown his hand as an evil actor and an outright enemy, and the West is correctly standing up to him.

The worry, however, is that this will lead to actions that target NATO, leading to what some see as potentially tough decisions - how to respond to Russia hitting targets inside NATO countries, f. ex.? There's a real risk of a potential wider conflagration of this war, it seems.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-vladimir-putin-may-start-a-nuclear-war-but-we-are-ready-to-die

Sounds like the talking heads are building up a suicidal frenzy pushing themselves to global thermonuclear war, hopefully in just an effort to bid over each other in signalling loyalty. But this is very worrying.

I don't think we should loose much sleep over whatever crap Russian state tv pundits are blathering about, as all they've done so far is spout bloodthirsty nonsense.

Yeah, the whole "we'll blow up the West in a blaze of nuclear fire" rethoric was already there in the runup to the invasion.

That show is the warmongering equivalent of El Chiringuito.

[Zanza]

BERLIN—Germany is now ready to stop buying Russian oil, clearing the way for a European Union ban on crude imports from Russia, government officials said.

Berlin had been one of the main opponents of sanctioning the EU's oil and gas trade with Moscow.

However on Wednesday, German representatives to the EU institutions lifted the country's objection to a full Russian oil embargo provided Berlin was given sufficient time to secure alternative supplies, two officials said.

[...]

Berlin's change of mind on oil came after it struck a deal with Poland that will enable Germany to import oil from global exporters via the Baltic Sea port of Gdansk, officials said Wednesday.

The Polish port is located close to the PCK oil refinery in Schwedt, Germany, which is controlled by the Russian oil giant Rosneft and receives crude via a Russian pipeline known as Druzhba, Russian for friendship.

The Gdansk port infrastructure, which is equipped to receive oil supertankers, is connected to the Russian pipeline with a separate link operated by Poland. This means oil imports to Gdansk could be immediately channeled through the pipeline to the Schwedt refinery, replacing Russian supplies, government officials said.

The Schwedt refinery was the biggest obstacle to Germany accepting a ban on Russian oil imports because thousands of jobs in the region depend on it and there was no alternative supply to feed it until now, the officials said.

The Polish deal was necessary because the German port closest to the refinery, Rostock, doesn't have the capacity to receive supertankers. In addition, Germany's railways no longer operate oil wagons. The landmark deal was announced on Wednesday by German Economy Minister Robert Habeck during a visit to Poland.

Some 12% of Germany's oil consumption relies on Russian imports, down from 35% before the war, Mr. Habeck said in a video statement posted on his ministry's social media. He said Germany was now ready for the possibility that Rosneft would stop channeling oil, a scenario he said would no longer spell disaster for the German economy.

"Rosneft is a Russian state company and they have no interest in processing non-Russian oil," Mr. Habeck said.

Should Rosneft refuse to process non-Russian oil imports, Germany could put the refinery under state management under laws protecting strategic assets. Berlin has already assumed stewardship of the main Russian gas-trading hub in Germany, a subsidiary of Russia's state-controlled Gazprom.

[...]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-drops-opposition-to-russian-oil-embargo-11651155915

German lawmakers overwhelmingly approve heavy weapons deliveries

[...]

The petition passed on Thursday, with with 586 votes in favor, 100 against, and seven abstentions.

[...]

https://m.dw.com/en/ukraine-german-lawmakers-overwhelmingly-approve-heavy-weapons-deliveries/a-61618357
Now we just need to have anything Ukraine can actually use...