Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[mongers]

I don't buy the assessment that Russia would launch a major attack at the end of January, wasn't that in part the judgement of the Ukrainians?

I think it's possible Putin makes an earlier surprise attack using the forces already at the border to put NATO on the back foot. Though that is partially dependent on what the Winter weather is.

Even over the holiday period, an outside possibility??

[OttoVonBismarck]

That sounds like a demand designed to be rejected, as a prelude to an action you've already decided on.  This could get really, really ugly. 

Yeah, these demands being made publicly and of a nature that they are certain to be rejected actually significantly increases how likely I think it is Putin is going to blunder into a war here.

[Berkut]

That sounds like a demand designed to be rejected, as a prelude to an action you've already decided on.  This could get really, really ugly. 

Yeah, these demands being made publicly and of a nature that they are certain to be rejected actually significantly increases how likely I think it is Putin is going to blunder into a war here.

The scary part is that he is likely to not even consider it a blunder.

[The Brain]

Who will go to war with Russia over Ukraine?

[DGuller]

That sounds like a demand designed to be rejected, as a prelude to an action you've already decided on.  This could get really, really ugly. 

Yeah, these demands being made publicly and of a nature that they are certain to be rejected actually significantly increases how likely I think it is Putin is going to blunder into a war here.

The scary part is that he is likely to not even consider it a blunder.

What scares me even more is the possibility that it may not turn out to be a blunder.  The good guys in the West certainly have a habit of turning the blunders of their opponents into brilliant moves.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I don't think if he's doing it this way he's thinking it's a blunder.

Notwithstanding the nature of any of the other demands, withdrawing troops from NATO members in response to military threats is a no go as far as I'm concerned.

[Jacob]

Who will go to war with Russia over Ukraine?

Ukraine, for sure.

I don't know if NATO or the EU will or should go to war, but we should - IMO - make Putin pay a high price; including funding opposition movements and training insurgents, on top of the expected sanctions.

[The Brain]

Who will go to war with Russia over Ukraine?

Ukraine, for sure.

I don't know if NATO or the EU will or should go to war, but we should - IMO - make Putin pay a high price; including funding opposition movements and training insurgents, on top of the expected sanctions.

Ukraine and Russia are already at war.

[Tamas]

I don't buy the assessment that Russia would launch a major attack at the end of January, wasn't that in part the judgement of the Ukrainians?

I think it's possible Putin makes an earlier surprise attack using the forces already at the border to put NATO on the back foot. Though that is partially dependent on what the Winter weather is.

Even over the holiday period, an outside possibility??

He may hope to put extra pressure on Europeans by threatening to decrease/stop gas shipments if they do something to protect/support Ukraine. I'd imagine winter is the best time for that.

[The Minsky Moment]

Well, Russia is ready to defuse tensions with Ukraine if NATO retreats to its 1997 borders:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato

They forgot to demand disbandment of the Narodna Odbrana and the arrest of all officers assisting Gavrilo Princip.

[Sheilbh]

That sounds like a demand designed to be rejected, as a prelude to an action you've already decided on.  This could get really, really ugly. 

Or the quite common Russian approach of coming making a fresh very maximalist demand and then accepting a "compromise" where they only get 50%.

I don't buy the assessment that Russia would launch a major attack at the end of January, wasn't that in part the judgement of the Ukrainians?

I don't buy that Russia would launch an attack after months of escalating and increasing their troop numbers - it could happen for sure but it feels far more like something they'd prepare for quietly, launch quickly and present as a fait accompli (looking at, say, the war in Georgia or the way they launched the attack in Ukraine last time).

[DGuller]

I personally don't like making predictions about what Putin would do.  Being unpredictable is an advantage in diplomacy, especially the Russian way of conducting it.  If someone like me can identify whether Putin is bluffing or being serious, using only publicly available information, then it would make Putin pretty bad at this game.  Bluffing doesn't work when people know or can deduce based on your prior actions that you're bluffing.

[Syt]

So what are Putin's war goals here? The troop numbers seem a bit low to fully occupy Ukraine, esp. with a hostile population in the Western parts. Securing a land corridor to Crimea, and perhaps regime change in Kiev? That seems more attainable.

[Sheilbh]

I personally don't like making predictions about what Putin would do.  Being unpredictable is an advantage in diplomacy, especially the Russian way of conducting it.  If someone like me can identify whether Putin is bluffing or being serious, using only publicly available information, then it would make Putin pretty bad at this game.  Bluffing doesn't work when people know or can deduce based on your prior actions that you're bluffing.

This is very fair.

[Tamas]

So what are Putin's war goals here? The troop numbers seem a bit low to fully occupy Ukraine, esp. with a hostile population in the Western parts. Securing a land corridor to Crimea, and perhaps regime change in Kiev? That seems more attainable.

My guess is:

Primary and minimum objective is to finalise the "independence" of Donetsk, drive out Ukraine decisively so a Crimea style annexation can happen later
If things go good enough, make Ukraine actually sign a peace treat to this effect
If things go even better, in addition install a puppet government in Ukraine

I am fairly certain Putin isn't stupid enough to try straight out annexing/occupying whole of Ukraine.