Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Funny thing I read today in reply to a video of Russian T55s going into action... - Orban is supporting an army using the exact same tanks used to suppress the Hungarian uprising.

[Legbiter]

Btw, avoid the edgy accounts today....palletized cubeniks. 

[Jacob]

Do we know if the West has lined up any kind of response to Russia blowing up the nuclear plant?

[Zanza]

Do we know if the West has lined up any kind of response to Russia blowing up the nuclear plant?

We have a letter strongly condemning it pre-formulated and must just insert the date in the blank space.

[Legbiter]

We have a letter strongly condemning it pre-formulated and must just insert the date in the blank space.

Yep.

[Sheilbh]

On West and nuclear, interesting detail in an FT piece. It was largely about Xi making clear to Putin that using tactical nukes is a redline for China. But it also included that apparently the US, UK and France warned Russia that they would respond to tactical nukes by launching conventional attacks on Russian forces.

I think the public messages at the time were that there'd be "catastrophic consequences" but that was the parallel private warning.

[Hamilcar]

On West and nuclear, interesting detail in an FT piece. It was largely about Xi making clear to Putin that using tactical nukes is a redline for China. But it also included that apparently the US, UK and France warned Russia that they would respond to tactical nukes by launching conventional attacks on Russian forces.

I think the public messages at the time were that there'd be "catastrophic consequences" but that was the parallel private warning.

On West and nuclear, interesting detail in an FT piece. It was largely about Xi making clear to Putin that using tactical nukes is a redline for China. But it also included that apparently the US, UK and France warned Russia that they would respond to tactical nukes by launching conventional attacks on Russian forces.

I think the public messages at the time were that there'd be "catastrophic consequences" but that was the parallel private warning.

Nothing would put China trying anything in Taiwan than seeing US/UK/France destroy all Russian forces outside their border within a day or two.

[Josquius]

The worry is how Russia would react.
Would the people in charge of the nuclear button decide Russia being embarrassed is less important than the end of the world.

[crazy canuck]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

[Josquius]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

questionable.

But if even a small fraction of them do... then there's the nato return fire.... Fallout ho.

[Barrister]

Do the Russian nukes even work?

As we've seen throughout the war, Russian military equipment doesn't work well and has flaws, but it still on some basic level works.  We know their missiles work after all.

[OttoVonBismarck]

On West and nuclear, interesting detail in an FT piece. It was largely about Xi making clear to Putin that using tactical nukes is a redline for China. But it also included that apparently the US, UK and France warned Russia that they would respond to tactical nukes by launching conventional attacks on Russian forces.

I think the public messages at the time were that there'd be "catastrophic consequences" but that was the parallel private warning.

This is pretty in line with what has been said since the 1960s right--all uses of nuclear weapons are strategic, and will carry strategic consequences; putting the label "tactical" in front of the warhead's name isn't going to change that.

[Barrister]

And I think what's threatened seems like a proportional response.  If you use nuclear weapons we will directly hit you with conventional forces.

Maybe the west takes out the Black Sea Fleet,or hits airbases in Crimea, or puts NATO troops inside Ukraine for training purposes.  Definitely escalatory, but proportional to Russia's actions - and not responding in kind.

[Sheilbh]

And I think what's threatened seems like a proportional response.  If you use nuclear weapons we will directly hit you with conventional forces.

Maybe the west takes out the Black Sea Fleet,or hits airbases in Crimea, or puts NATO troops inside Ukraine for training purposes.  Definitely escalatory, but proportional to Russia's actions - and not responding in kind.

I agree - I think it's also absolutely the correct line to have made crystal clear to Russia. Don't leave any ambiguity about it that the use of nuclear weapons would be an escalation in kind that would cause an immediate response.

[grumbler]

The worry is how Russia would react.
Would the people in charge of the nuclear button decide Russia being embarrassed is less important than the end of the world.

The people in charge of executing Russian nuclear attacks would not consider the deaths of themselves and all their children a price worth paying to avenge an embarrassment of Russia.