Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[crazy canuck]

Re. the Nordics:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

Well we now know what the consequences are if you *don't* join NATO.  Seems like an easy call.

You mean promises that their territorial integrity will be honoured don't hold much weight?  Say it isn't so.

[Jacob]

Were I Swedish or Finnish I would want to join NATO, even if purely out of spite for being threatened not to.

[Zanza]

Head of German Federal Intelligence Service was evacuated from #Ukraine by a special force and is on its way to Poland right now. German media says he was "surprised" by the Russian invasion Thursday morning. Wow. Just wow.

Source is an unverified tweet, so 90% chance of fake.

Germany? WTF are you doing?

He was in Kyiv for talks. When the war became more likely on Wednesday, his jet was sent home, but he stayed. He then left by car with other embassy staff today. No special forces involved.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have mixed feelings on America defending Sweden or Finland. We are not obligated to, and they have chosen to remain apart from us--Sweden even declined to fight the Germans in WWII. I wouldn't want to see them fall to Russia, but I also don't know that we can stick our neck out for countries that take that sort of deliberate position against collective defense. It's almost like if you were allowed to buy a home insurance policy the day after your house burned down. You kind of needed to buy that before that day came.

[Jacob]

Head of German Federal Intelligence Service was evacuated from #Ukraine by a special force and is on its way to Poland right now. German media says he was "surprised" by the Russian invasion Thursday morning. Wow. Just wow.

Source is an unverified tweet, so 90% chance of fake.

Germany? WTF are you doing?

He was in Kyiv for talks. When the war became more likely on Wednesday, his jet was sent home, but he stayed. He then left by car with other embassy staff today. No special forces involved.

I think it was more that "he was surprised by the Russian invasion" thing. It makes it sounds like his reaction was like "Russians invading Ukraine? Where did that come from?" ... when in reality it was probably more "he ended up closer to Russians than comfortable."

[Jacob]

I have mixed feelings on America defending Sweden or Finland. We are not obligated to, and they have chosen to remain apart from us--Sweden even declined to fight the Germans in WWII. I wouldn't want to see them fall to Russia, but I also don't know that we can stick our neck out for countries that take that sort of deliberate position against collective defense. It's almost like if you were allowed to buy a home insurance policy the day after your house burned down. You kind of needed to buy that before that day came.

Well... more like being allowed to buy a home insurance policy when an arsonist is saying "I may burn your house down if you're not careful."

Though fair enough. That said, if you view it in terms of hamstringing Putin's Russia bringing more countries into the fold, and having more NATO countries on Russia's border, could be a worthwhile strategic move independently of whether they "deserve it".

Personally, I have two main reasons for favouring including Sweden and Finland into NATO. One is Nordic solidarity, which I understand may not be shared elsewhere. The other is a desire to show Putin that if he acts like a goon, he will lose things he wants, not gain them. Invading Ukraine only to push Sweden and Finland into NATO would be an own goal, I'd think, and thus desirable.

[Iormlund]

So let's say Putin occupies Ukraine (or gobbles up large chunks and installs a puppet rump state). What then? Moldova? Caucasus?

The Baltics would be an obvious target, esp. Estonia with its large Russian population. But NATO seems actually willing this time to defend all their countries, or at least it's less doubtful.

Or would he go full Bond villain? "Agree to my demands, or I push the big red button!" How would you even react to a threat like that?

I wonder how hard it would be for the US/UK/France to mimic a Soviet era suitcase bomb and just park it in the Red Square.

My impression from the charade during the Coucil "meeting" is that Putin and only Putin is the driving force behind Russia. As a wise Georgian once said, no man, no problem.

[Zanza]

I think it was more that "he was surprised by the Russian invasion" thing. It makes it sounds like his reaction was like "Russians invading Ukraine? Where did that come from?" ... when in reality it was probably more "he ended up closer to Russians than comfortable."

Likely. It's not clear why he decided to stay on Wednesday evening despite sending his jet back. He then did not go on Thursday with the embassy staff, but left on Friday with his bodyguards. How surprised or not he was is up for guessing. Sending your jet home on the eve of the invasion indicates that he had some insight then.

[Threviel]

From a Swedish geopolitical perspective it's simple. We can join NATO now, we and Finland will be let in.

Or we can not join NATO, hoping that they will help us if shit hits the fan.

As OvB says, if Fin/Swe won't fight for Nato, why the fuck would Nato fight for us? By not joining we put ourselves at the mercy of Russia, totally and completely. We cannot defend ourself.

So it's simple, we must join Nato asap. Let's hope our politicians see it the same way.

[Duque de Bragança]

Were I Swedish or Finnish I would want to join NATO, even if purely out of spite for being threatened not to.

Now is the time for Kalmar Union 2.0. With Denmark already in NATO, problem solved. Bad news for Canada about Hans Island as well? 

[Zanza]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-hits-out-at-switzerland-after-government-drags-feet-on-russia-sanctions/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter

The EU lashed out at Switzerland on Friday for not having sanctioned Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

"This is the biggest threat to European security and stability since the end of the Second World War. And it affects not only Ukraine, it affects Europe — and it doesn't mean European Union: it affects Europe. Switzerland is part of Europe," European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano told media in Brussels.

"So we expect our partners, our neighbors, our ally, to follow suit in standing up for defending the principles on which our communities and our countries are based. Among those principles are respect for international rules, protection of democracy and solidarity," he added.

Later in the afternoon, the Swiss government formally extended its existing list of targeted individuals, as it had announced on Thursday, adding the 363 individuals the EU sanctioned earlier this week.

These individuals are not formally sanctioned by Switzerland, but financial intermediaries will now have to report existing relationships with these people and cannot enter into new business relationships with them. The figures still have access to their Swiss bank accounts. An initial list was drawn up in 2014 after Russia's annexation of Crimea.

The Swiss government is currently looking at tightening the measures, but has not announced what steps it will take. The Swiss Federal Council "has also taken note" of further EU sanctions imposed earlier this week and is planning to adjust its rules to prevent Swiss territory from being used to circumvent international sanctions

Whenever you think your countries' sanctions are weak, there is always Switzerland...

[Syt]

When your country's business model is, "We don't ask questions" ....

[Sheilbh]

From a Swedish geopolitical perspective it's simple. We can join NATO now, we and Finland will be let in.

Or we can not join NATO, hoping that they will help us if shit hits the fan.

As OvB says, if Fin/Swe won't fight for Nato, why the fuck would Nato fight for us? By not joining we put ourselves at the mercy of Russia, totally and completely. We cannot defend ourself.

So it's simple, we must join Nato asap. Let's hope our politicians see it the same way.

I've been interested in the public meetings of the Joint Expeditionary Force of northern European NATO members as well as non-NATO members like Finland and Sweden over the last couple of months for obvious reasons.

Apart from my instinctual response when I see them announcing a meeting ("the Protestants are up to something!" ) it seems like there's been some form of meeting or consultation every couple of weeks.

I'd have no issue with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Frankly I think  - and I hate it that Matt Yglesias said this and is right - countries that are struggling to give up the economic benefits of selling luxury handbags and diamonds to Russia probably need reminding that they are formally committed to mutual defence of states like Estonia which would be against a nuclear power. That needs to look credible to Russia if it's to serve its deterrent purpose. I think Finland and Sweden would participate.

[Iormlund]

Whenever you think your countries' sanctions are weak, there is always Switzerland...

Look at it this way, they aren't buying gold teeth ... yet.

Personally I think after this and recent leaks about Credit Suisse, harsh sanctions against Swiss banks would be in order.

[Sheilbh]

On supplies the Polish defence minister has confirmed a large convoy of supplies from various NATO members crossed the border today - so we're driving it through Poland.