Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah we can finally retire Friedman's always absurd "no country with a MacDonalds has ever gone to war with another country with a MacDonalds" theory

Pretty much a given since the Kosovo war of 1999, at the very least.

[Sheilbh]

The footage of Kadyrov doing a rally of Chechen "security forces" who are going to be deployed to Ukraine is absolutely chilling

I can't imagine that they're being sent as disciplined troops but like a Russian basiji - just thugs to go and terrorise people.

[Syt]

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   

Time to relaunch the Winterhilfswerk.

I occasionally like to check in on RT (via VPN and blocking cookies etc.) to see what the other side says, but I've not been able to reach the site since yesterday.

Sadly Anonymous took down the RT site. 

Truly a tremendous loss.

Sputnik news is still up, but that site is extremely shit to navigate.

I did like the moxy of RT asking you to install their app when you visit their site. Yeah ... pass.

[Duque de Bragança]

There used to be a Chechen nationalist group fighting on the Ukrainian side in 2014-15 as well, under Osmaev, the Dzhokhar Dudaev battalion. I guess they are quite busy right now, if they still exist as a fighting force.

[Sheilbh]

Just seen the Ukrainian MoD earlier today said about Russian troops in Obolon in Kyiv and called on citizens to keep them informed of Russian movements (I'm amazed the internet and phone networks haven't gone down yet) and to "make Molotov cocktails, neutralise the occupier".

Again I think Putin believes this stuff and based his calculations on it - maybe not welcomed as liberators but not far off (from a Google translate of Russian service - but seeing multiple reports of these lines):

Putin appealed to the Ukrainian army: "Take power into your own hands, it looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage."

[Josquius]

I'm seeing pretty low casualty estimates. Very strange. Also far more on the Russian side.
Hope it's all true.

[Grey Fox]

Ukraine is claiming 3000 Russian soldiers casualties in the first 36 hours according to Max Seddon on twitter.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497217263161823232?s=20&t=kIbOVso98iB4BQtA6-NtPw

[OttoVonBismarck]

Ukraine's reported casualty counts for their side seem incredibly low and unlikely to be accurate; they could be accurate "recorded casualties" when your entire country is invaded counting the dead is going to be lower priority than the actual fighting.

[celedhring]

Ukraine is claiming 3000 Russian soldiers casualties in the first 36 hours according to Max Seddon on twitter.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497217263161823232?s=20&t=kIbOVso98iB4BQtA6-NtPw

It says KIA, not just casualties. That would be a staggering figure and I find it really hard to believe.

[Zanza]

Not comparable, but the Red Army lost about 10.000 men every single day in WW2.

[Grey Fox]

Head of German Federal Intelligence Service was evacuated from #Ukraine by a special force and is on its way to Poland right now. German media says he was "surprised" by the Russian invasion Thursday morning. Wow. Just wow.

Source is an unverified tweet, so 90% chance of fake.

Germany? WTF are you doing?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah 3000 dead Russians might not shock me in the first 6 months of this, but the first 2 days seems very unlikely to be accurate, if it's true Russia's military is taking exceptionally high casualties. We likely will never have entirely accurate numbers--Russia is known to intentionally hide casualty figures and Ukraine has every reason to lie about them as well. There's even been instances where Russian family members basically are given almost no details on soldiers who have died fighting in the breakaway provinces since 2014, since deaths there are considered politically inconvenient to Putin. They would get some vague notification their loved one died and often would not get the body back or etc either.

[Sheilbh]

Putin has called for Lukashenko to arrange talks in Minsk.

I don't see how Ukraine could in any way accept the "good offices" of Lukashenko or for there to be talks in Minsk given that one of the axes of this invasion is from Belarus.

I'm dubious about those casualty figures and think this will get worse but it does seem like things are going less well for Russia than expected by the Kremlin.

[Syt]

UK MoD earlier said they record 450 dead Russians.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Not comparable, but the Red Army lost about 10.000 men every single day in WW2.

True but way more troops were involved, a large amount of the direct fire military casualties in WWII were due to heavy use of both highly massed troop formations and large use scale use of artillery. Modern militaries generally operate in far more dispersed and mobilized units that make it a little less likely for such very high casualty levels to accrue so quickly.