Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Syt]

There's several reports (from speaker Peskov, from the Chinese) that Russia is supposedly willing to talk to Ukraine in Minsk. Could of course be a distraction before bringing the hammer down.

I mean I'm sure Putin would happily agree to peace on the terms of: Zelensky out, new Russian President in, or at best maybe Zelensky gets to keep a rump state east of Kiev and the rest gets turned over to Russia or something.

I think the offer is the usual - full neutrality ( ) and demilitarization down to a token force. Kinda like the requirements given to Austria in 1955. Or the offer from Stalin to reunite Germany (where it was unclear at the time if he was acually serious, because he died shortly later).

[Syt]

It should also be noted the theory that gained increasing popularity in the 1980s--that trading partners don't go to war, and that free trade leads to freer societies, is now as fully debunked as anything can reasonably be.

I thought that was already debunked in 1914?

[Threviel]

Bla bla bla

I agree wholeheartedly with OvB, time to push back and re-structure our economies.

[Berkut]

It should also be noted the theory that gained increasing popularity in the 1980s--that trading partners don't go to war, and that free trade leads to freer societies, is now as fully debunked as anything can reasonably be. Given that this theory was the justification for much of our opening up our societies to Russia and China, knowledge that it is a false hypothesis needs to inform our future decision making. With nuclear powers direct war is undesirable and best avoided, but there is no logical reason we have to open our societies up to the degree we have to Russian fossil fuels and cheap labor in China. There are other sources of cheap labor, and to be frank to some degree we have caused serious sociocultural problems in our own countries by gutting blue collar workforces in the highly developed West in favor of cheap blue-collar labor abroad. Covid also showed how fragile and weak global supply chains are. Goods and product being more expensive and being made locally, may need to become a norm, and we should probably reflect more honestly on how that would not be the end of the world. Our lives and happiness should not be linked to cheap shit when moderately higher priced products can be attained in other ways that are less politically and socially damaging.

I think the theory is more that western liberal democracies don't got to war, and that free trade is a path or the path to more freedom and democracy. I think the latter part is what we are realizing is not really true - certainly China is showing that it isn't necessarily true, anyway.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It should also be noted the theory that gained increasing popularity in the 1980s--that trading partners don't go to war, and that free trade leads to freer societies, is now as fully debunked as anything can reasonably be.

I thought that was already debunked in 1914?

The Clintonistas would like to have a word with you, they certainly still believed it into the 2010s.

[Zanza]

From BBC:

EU to freeze European assets held by Putin and Lavrov

We've just got some news in: an official for the EU says the bloc has decided to freeze European assets held by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

It's unclear however if either man holds significant assets in the EU.

We will bring you more details as we get them.

That seems to be more of a gesture. But there are Russian political, civil service, security elites that could and should be hit by personal sanctions like travel bans and asset freezes. That would at least create unrest in Putin's apparatus.

[FunkMonk]

The Snake Island "Go fuck yourselves" really got to me. I get absolutely destroyed listening to stuff like that. 

These Ukrainians are brave and badass motherfuckers. Like Otto said, we should've been arming them for years. Maybe they would've stood a chance at victory then.

[Zanza]

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   
You have to wonder where those billions are pissed away when they have atrocious equipment and not even warm jackets.

[Syt]

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   

Time to relaunch the Winterhilfswerk.

I occasionally like to check in on RT (via VPN and blocking cookies etc.) to see what the other side says, but I've not been able to reach the site since yesterday.

[Grey Fox]

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   

Time to relaunch the Winterhilfswerk.

I occasionally like to check in on RT (via VPN and blocking cookies etc.) to see what the other side says, but I've not been able to reach the site since yesterday.

The anonymous hive has been targeting it.

[Josquius]

It should also be noted the theory that gained increasing popularity in the 1980s--that trading partners don't go to war, and that free trade leads to freer societies, is now as fully debunked as anything can reasonably be. Given that this theory was the justification for much of our opening up our societies to Russia and China, knowledge that it is a false hypothesis needs to inform our future decision making. With nuclear powers direct war is undesirable and best avoided, but there is no logical reason we have to open our societies up to the degree we have to Russian fossil fuels and cheap labor in China. There are other sources of cheap labor, and to be frank to some degree we have caused serious sociocultural problems in our own countries by gutting blue collar workforces in the highly developed West in favor of cheap blue-collar labor abroad. Covid also showed how fragile and weak global supply chains are. Goods and product being more expensive and being made locally, may need to become a norm, and we should probably reflect more honestly on how that would not be the end of the world. Our lives and happiness should not be linked to cheap shit when moderately higher priced products can be attained in other ways that are less politically and socially damaging.

I think the theory is more that western liberal democracies don't got to war, and that free trade is a path or the path to more freedom and democracy. I think the latter part is what we are realizing is not really true - certainly China is showing that it isn't necessarily true, anyway.

I wonder whether this theory was based on a pre-internet world.
Richer people do demand greater access to the media and other trappings of the developed world... though with the internet you can control the by far most convenient avenue for this a lot easier than in the days when everything worked on physical media or broadcasts.
Its a sort of situation where as things become easier and more convenient so much so that the old ways die, they also become easier to disrupt.
Trying to piece it together in my mind here but perhaps some variant of Dunning Kruger too?- the more surface integrated you are with the world, as in the internet, despite intense government filtering, the more you believe yourself to be actually free and don't grasp that you're not?

[Sheilbh]

I think the offer is the usual - full neutrality ( ) and demilitarization down to a token force. Kinda like the requirements given to Austria in 1955. Or the offer from Stalin to reunite Germany (where it was unclear at the time if he was acually serious, because he died shortly later).

And apparently only if Ukrainian forces lay down their arms first.

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   
You have to wonder where those billions are pissed away when they have atrocious equipment and not even warm jackets.

I always remember the stories - there's been a couple - of German troops having to use civilian equipment during NATO exercises.

On the money - I don't know about Germany but I remember an incredible stat that about half of Belgium's defence budget was spent on pensions. I also think, and this may just be the UK, if we have rather too many generals and admiarals etc for the size of our actual forces. I get the sense the military is very top-heavy here with, no doubt, good salaries and benefits in kind etc.

That seems to be more of a gesture. But there are Russian political, civil service, security elites that could and should be hit by personal sanctions like travel bans and asset freezes. That would at least create unrest in Putin's apparatus.

Yes. I think there's value in sanctioning Putin's circle directly - and their families. For example Lavrov's daughter studied in London, I think she now works for Christie's in New York. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, whose daughter was an intern in the European Parliament for a right-wing French MEP - I think she's still in Paris in political circles.

But at the very least it seems to me that if you attended the security council meeting, or the important Russian businesses meeting Putin hosted earlier this week then you should probably be on a sanction list and, certainly in the UK, not all those people are.

It should also be noted the theory that gained increasing popularity in the 1980s--that trading partners don't go to war, and that free trade leads to freer societies, is now as fully debunked as anything can reasonably be. Given that this theory was the justification for much of our opening up our societies to Russia and China, knowledge that it is a false hypothesis needs to inform our future decision making. With nuclear powers direct war is undesirable and best avoided, but there is no logical reason we have to open our societies up to the degree we have to Russian fossil fuels and cheap labor in China. There are other sources of cheap labor, and to be frank to some degree we have caused serious sociocultural problems in our own countries by gutting blue collar workforces in the highly developed West in favor of cheap blue-collar labor abroad. Covid also showed how fragile and weak global supply chains are. Goods and product being more expensive and being made locally, may need to become a norm, and we should probably reflect more honestly on how that would not be the end of the world. Our lives and happiness should not be linked to cheap shit when moderately higher priced products can be attained in other ways that are less politically and socially damaging.

Yeah we can finally retire Friedman's always absurd "no country with a MacDonalds has ever gone to war with another country with a MacDonalds" theory

[Sheilbh]

The anonymous hive has been targeting it.

Anonymous announcing they're going to war with Russia has been the most cyberpunk thing I've ever seen in real life

[Syt]

Twitter thread addressed to Germans: if you have learned anything from your history, you need to step up.

https://twitter.com/eugene_finkel/status/1497155821049950241?s=20&t=MGbRL5VEYkBUtc845iOmAA

Can't disagree with what he says.

[DGuller]

German press reports that German soldiers stationed in the Baltics as part of NATO lack warm winter clothes. I think I've heard that before...   

Time to relaunch the Winterhilfswerk.

I occasionally like to check in on RT (via VPN and blocking cookies etc.) to see what the other side says, but I've not been able to reach the site since yesterday.

Sadly Anonymous took down the RT site.