Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Re. the Nordics:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

Edit: It seems Putin went on in his call for the Ukrainian military to turn on Ukraine's government about not lettering "neo-Nazis and Banderites" use your wives and children as human shields. Not sure he's understood what seems to be the mood in Ukraine including from the military - which is just what you'd expect during an invasion.

Separately Peskov has apparently just very hastily called for a call with journalists to say that Ukraine has stopped respondint to Russia's proposal for talks and that Ukraine is setting up rocket launchers in residential neighbourhoods in Kyiv. Which sounds very alarmingly like they are maybe trying to create an "atrocity" by Ukrainians - it's just all monstrous

[Threviel]

Re. the Nordics:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

Not that Sweden has much of an army, but I wouldn't want to be part of the Russian clown posse trying to invade Finland. We Swedes will, as usual, fight to the last Finn.

[Valmy]

So Russia is just casually implying it might attack Sweden and Finland. What a brave new world.

[Duque de Bragança]

Putin has called for Lukashenko to arrange talks in Minsk.

I don't see how Ukraine could in any way accept the "good offices" of Lukashenko or for there to be talks in Minsk given that one of the axes of this invasion is from Belarus.

It's a cheap symbolic gift to Lukashenko who has been demoted to Putin puppet, in all but name.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Apparently the Ukrainian airforce managed a strike on An airport in Russia itself. If true it's a nice morale booster

[Syt]

From the UK MoD:

[Valmy]

Re. the Nordics:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

Not that Sweden has much of an army, but I wouldn't want to be part of the Russian clown posse trying to invade Finland. We Swedes will, as usual, fight to the last Finn.

Maybe you should think about getting one, at least to defend your own territory.

[Syt]

Also, this is part of what war in the 21st century looks like:

[Duque de Bragança]

So Russia is just casually implying it might attack Sweden and Finland. What a brave new world.

They are not part of NATO yet; calling it a breather for the Balts and Poland would be hasty, however.
Gotland is of strategic interest and in range, but for the rest of Sweden, well there is Finland, plus Norway on the flank, that's a bit far for now.

Mainila is now in Russian territory but I am sure a new one could be found in Finland, Putin willing.

[Tamas]

It is interesting that according to the US, only a third of the Russian forces amassed have been committed. I wonder if they adjust that to number of support units etc.

But otherwise it seems everyone who knows about these things agree that the Russians must be advancing slower than they planned.

[Syt]

I generally get the impression that this is not going as Putin wanted. He probably expected a house of cards that he just needs to sneeze at and it all comes tumbling down. He may have overestimated support at home for this attack - several public figures in Russia have spoken out against the war (including 300 scientists who signed a letter today), and considering how very illegal protests are, there's been a surprising amount of protestors.

[Sheilbh]

It is interesting that according to the US, only a third of the Russian forces amassed have been committed. I wonder if they adjust that to number of support units etc.

But otherwise it seems everyone who knows about these things agree that the Russians must be advancing slower than they planned.

That's what I'm seeing people say too - I feel guarded optimism about the last bit. But worry that what we're seeing is a failed attempt at using a scalpel to achieve Putin's aims. If that keeps failing they may use the sledgehammer. I think they expected Ukraine 2014 - surprised, chaotic, disorganised - but things have changed in the last eight years (plus it is clear this is a full invasion and they're pushing for regime change with Kyiv as the key objective).

I'm starting to think what is key in this is the mood and morale of the Russian forces and the Russian people.

Edit: Agree with Syt basically

[Duque de Bragança]

Echoes I get from Russia, that even the pensioners, core electorate of Putin, are unhappy with the war but can't really take their discontent to the streets, for obvious reasons.

[Tamas]

It is interesting that according to the US, only a third of the Russian forces amassed have been committed. I wonder if they adjust that to number of support units etc.

But otherwise it seems everyone who knows about these things agree that the Russians must be advancing slower than they planned.

That's what I'm seeing people say too - I feel guarded optimism about the last bit. But worry that what we're seeing is a failed attempt at using a scalpel to achieve Putin's aims. If that keeps failing they may use the sledgehammer. I think they expected Ukraine 2014 - surprised, chaotic, disorganised - but things have changed in the last eight years (plus it is clear this is a full invasion and they're pushing for regime change with Kyiv as the key objective).

I'm starting to think what is key in this is the mood and morale of the Russian forces and the Russian people.

Edit: Agree with Syt basically

Yeah. I am quite certain Putin would be a-ok with turning Grozny Mode on to achieve his goal, but he might not do so if he is afraid of the backlash.

[Threviel]

Re. the Nordics:

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova warns Finland and Sweden they would 'face some military and political consequences' if they tried to join Nato

Not that Sweden has much of an army, but I wouldn't want to be part of the Russian clown posse trying to invade Finland. We Swedes will, as usual, fight to the last Finn.

Maybe you should think about getting one, at least to defend your own territory.

i bought SAAB stock in 2014 because by the it was painfully obvious to me that Sweden must immediately mobilize all resources and strengthen our military. I lost money on that...