Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Larch]

If I was Ukranian I think I would feel humilliated, I'm the one getting screwed over what consists on a lashing against the whole western system, without even being part of it.

[Syt]

This speech feels like a rather angry ramble, much less calculated and deliberate than he usually presents himself. Not sure if that's a good or bad sign. Or just an act? Who knows anymore. Maybe he doesn't either.

[Syt]

Finally coming back to the separatists, praising them as standing up to the "stone age nationalism" of the 2014 "coup" in Ukraine.

[Berkut]

Why would you think they are safe?

Because they're in NATO and benefits from a mutual defence pact with the US.

So? That might stop Russia from straight up invading, but won't stop "separatists" from trying to break them away.

I don't think there is any doubt that if this is allowed to stand, there will be another to follow.

Probably Moldova. Or provocations in the West Balkans.
[/quote]

It'll be whatever he feels like.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder, though, if there's sanctions put in place to cut the oligarchs off from their wealth and privileges in the West, would that destroy his power base?

He's spent the last decade telling oligarchs to re-patriate their assets. His support base is securocrats around him. I thtink there's a reason some of his first big actions as President was taking on a couple of symbolic oligarchs - to re-assert state control and make clear that he was in charge.

If they're cut off from their wealth, I imagine he'd push back and say they made a choice to keep it in enemy jurisdictions (and Russia's been clear they view NATO as the enemy for the last 10-15 years) and, anyway, why didn't they follow his directives to re-patriate wealth.

I think there's zero chance sanctioning him and those around him would make an impact on policy (it maybe would have in the 2000s).

[The Larch]

"Russia has done everything to ensure Ukraine retained its territorial integrity,"

If he said that with a straight face he should be given an Oscar.

[Berkut]

Why would you think they are safe?

Because they're in NATO and benefits from a mutual defence pact with the US.

I don't think there is any doubt that if this is allowed to stand, there will be another to follow.

Probably Moldova. Or provocations in the West Balkans.

My impression is that many people in NATO would grasp at fig leaves to avoid going to war against Russia over "local ethnic Russian self defense forces fighting to stop an ongoing genocide against the oppressed Russian populations of the Baltic countries". Bernie will remind people of the "complex history".

And woe to anyone who doesn't give full weight and credence to that "complex history"!!!

[Sheilbh]

So? That might stop Russia from straight up invading, but won't stop "separatists" from trying to break them away.

Maybe but I think Russian support would be far more subtle and limited in a NATO country. I think NATO still matters.

It's why I say we should be strengthening it especially in the Baltics because I absolutely agree they could be a target and it's really important we all make it clear that they are core parts of NATO and the EU with all that entails.

[Syt]

And they're having a signing ceremony for friendship, mutual aid and operations agreement with Putin and his two muppets.

And it looks like the three are wearing the same suit and tie? Which looks really weird.

[Tamas]

Speech over. Independence recognised, peacekeeping forces will be sent in, if Ukraine continues their attacks, they'll be responsible for what happens.

[Syt]

Putin is 69. Is he starting to feel the pinch of age and worrying that he might run out of time to restore his gang Mother Russia to to her rightful place in the world?

[Sheilbh]

Speech over. Independence recognised, peacekeeping forces will be sent in, if Ukraine continues their attacks, they'll be responsible for what happens.

So next Russia will claim Ukrain is attacking those independent areas - including innocent Russian peacekeepers - probably with NATO assistance and they need to deal with the rogue regime in Kyiv?

[The Larch]

And they're having a signing ceremony for friendship, mutual aid and operations agreement with Putin and his two muppets.

And it looks like the three are wearing the same suit and tie? Which looks really weird.

How dissappointed the DPR and LPR guys would be if, after enduring the whole meeting and ceremony Putin decided not to recognize them after all. 

[Berkut]

I think NATO still matters.

Color me skeptical.

[Sheilbh]

Putin is 69. Is he starting to feel the pinch of age and worrying that he might run out of time to restore his gang Mother Russia to to her rightful place in the world?

At the start of this that was Mark Galeotti's theory for why he would invade Ukraine (which he didn't think was likely). Putin's running out of time, Russia's running out of time, there's growing internal opposition/dissatisfaction. Restoring Ukraine to its rightful place within Russia changes the history books about Putin from the guy who took over, stabilised things and then let them drift. He'd be a truly historic figure - and this is a pretty terrifying example of how much a "great man" can matter.