Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

Meanwhile the Hungarian Foreign Minister continues his war of words with the Ukrainian government. Such bravery in the face of adversity.

[alfred russel]

I could be wrong but I think a fair amount of countries are still using the gas pipes through Ukraine. And I assume Ukraine won't mess with that until there's any (hope) of getting some support from those countries. It's a weird war.

Seems to me the Ukrainians have a hard veto on gas shipments to Europe. If it bothers them so much they can blow up the pipelines on their own soil. Voilà, no Russian gas to Europe.

My understanding is Ukraine still gets transit fees from that pipeline - which given the general devastation to their economy they probably are loathe to give up.

But they are encouraging a gas boycott, which would mean no transport and no transit fees.

[Jacob]

I'm guessing the Ukrainian calculus goes like this:

Best: the West cuts their use of Russian gas and puts additional pressure on Russia. Ukraine loses transit fees.

Worse: the West continues getting gas from Russia. Ukraine gets needed cash as a result. No risk of turning Western allies against Ukraine.

Even Worse: Ukraine cuts gas from Russia to the West. Ukraine loses the influx of cash from the transit fees. Pressure is put on Russia. Some Western allies turn against Ukraine due to the loss of gas.

Worst: Same as "Even Worse" above, except Europe gets gas from Russia via alternate routes such as Nordstream.

[Berkut]

I'm guessing the Ukrainian calculus goes like this:

Best: the West cuts their use of Russian gas and puts additional pressure on Russia. Ukraine loses transit fees.

Worse: the West continues getting gas from Russia. Ukraine gets needed cash as a result. No risk of turning Western allies against Ukraine.

Even Worse: Ukraine cuts gas from Russia to the West. Ukraine loses the influx of cash from the transit fees. Pressure is put on Russia. Some Western allies turn against Ukraine due to the loss of gas.

Worst: Same as "Even Worse" above, except Europe gets gas from Russia via alternate routes such as Nordstream.

I think we also have to remember that Ukraine is almost certainly not some singular entity that operates with a singular voice. There are almost certainly competing interests there as well, and it takes some amount of time/effort/political capital internally to get everyone aligned. And in the middle of a war, that is likely not easy to do.

[Threviel]

Seems to be a singular pipe from Ukraine into Hungary. Presumably they can turn off only Hungary through that, which is what I'd tell the darkfriend ruling Hungary if I were Zelensky.

[DGuller]

I'm getting a sense that the fifth column of useful idiots or useful traitors in the West is regrouping, after the initial shock has worn off. 

[Barrister]

Seems to be a singular pipe from Ukraine into Hungary. Presumably they can turn off only Hungary through that, which is what I'd tell the darkfriend ruling Hungary if I were Zelensky.

My exhaustive research of five minutes of googling suggests that the Russia->Ukraine->Hungary pipeline also extends into Croatia.

[Jacob]

I'm getting a sense that the fifth column of useful idiots or useful traitors in the West is regrouping, after the initial shock has worn off. 

Yeah. That's to be expected, unfortunately. Given the almost unprecedented level of initial unity, I think it's likely that cracks are going to appear.

[PDH]

The killings, torture, and brutalizing of the population is right up their alley: they know how to scream "crisis actors" or "deep state coverup" whenever they need to.

[Darth Wagtaros]

The killings, torture, and brutalizing of the population is right up their alley: they know how to scream "crisis actors" or "deep state coverup" whenever they need to.

This is legitimate political discourse as they understand it.

[Barrister]

Awesome.

(from Ukraine, of course)

[Admiral Yi]

heh

[grumbler]

Awesome.

(from Ukraine, of course)

Yes, and the Wolverines wear almost the same colors as the Ukrainians have on their flag. 

Go Blue, Ukraine!

[Barrister]

I should note I found the pic on Twitter and thus can not 100% vouch for it's accuracy.

But some things are too good to not share.

[Zanza]

Two months ago, Germany was just delivering a few helmets to Ukraine in order not to antagonize Russia...
These days, delivery of fully armed infantry fighting vehicles is seriously discussed in Berlin. Astonishing development within a fairly short time for German politics.