Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

Putin announcement seems to be 30 minutes late and counting.    I guess Putin is longing for the feeling of keeping others waiting.

One can hope he tripped and fell out a window.

He's apparently making the speech already, but started out with some unrelated stuff.  I guess he wants to leave everyone hanging on his every word.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Note that a general mobilization is not a trump card, it is a huge risk for Putin. Not just because it might make Russians angry--but you could actually see large numbers of conscripts simply refuse to fight. This sort of "mutiny" has happened before, and is usually associated with broad collapse of a ruling regime.

[PJL]

Alternatively, double down on Luhansk and maybe Kherson, incorporate them into Russia and declare the operation a success with no need for further hostilities?

that's not going to stop Ukraine from kicking the Russians.

If Russia escalates further I can see NATO advisors on the ground within weeks or months.

I would be surprised if we don't already have some advisors on the ground already.

[Barrister]

Alternatively, double down on Luhansk and maybe Kherson, incorporate them into Russia and declare the operation a success with no need for further hostilities?

that's not going to stop Ukraine from kicking the Russians.

If Russia escalates further I can see NATO advisors on the ground within weeks or months.

I would be surprised if we don't already have some advisors on the ground already.

Almost certainly.  Not on the front lines or anything, but assisting in training and intelligence.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

more openly that is, but yeah, it's unlikely that there's no one

[Jacob]

This is charming if true:

Interesting mood music out of Kazakhstan, re relations with Russia in wake of war on Ukraine.
Astana has started detaining Russian trucks carrying sanctioned EU goods through its territory, Russia's state-run Izvestia reports today.

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150745730002944

[Tamas]

Seems like Putin speech will be aired when "Far East wakes up". Took a lot of time for his meds to kick in, couldn't finish recording in time, I am guessing.

[celedhring]

So they moved the big speech from prime time to "Good Morning Russia"?

I want to think Putin didn't get the internal buy-in he wanted for whatever shit he's about to do.

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed I wake up to the news of tanks in Moscow.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Fingers crossed I wake up to the news of tanks in Moscow.

allied tanks ideally, cause putin can just put russian tanks there and you'd still be waking up to tanks in moscow...

[Josquius]

This is charming if true:

Interesting mood music out of Kazakhstan, re relations with Russia in wake of war on Ukraine.
Astana has started detaining Russian trucks carrying sanctioned EU goods through its territory, Russia's state-run Izvestia reports today.

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150745730002944

Fingers crossed he means it about transforming Kazakhstan for the better and doesn't just mean he wants to be sultan instead of the sultan.

[Tamas]

So they moved the big speech from prime time to "Good Morning Russia"?

I want to think Putin didn't get the internal buy-in he wanted for whatever shit he's about to do.

Yeah lets hope so. There are definitely vibes of haphazard actions and growing panic. I am looking forward to his "Ceausescu on the balcony" moment, hopefully followed by the "Ceausescu against the wall" moment.

[Zanza]

This is charming if true:

Interesting mood music out of Kazakhstan, re relations with Russia in wake of war on Ukraine.
Astana has started detaining Russian trucks carrying sanctioned EU goods through its territory, Russia's state-run Izvestia reports today.

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150745730002944

Fingers crossed he means it about transforming Kazakhstan for the better and doesn't just mean he wants to be sultan instead of the sultan.

So far it looks like he is a true liberal and wants to transform Kazakhstan towards a more free society. Let's hope he keeps on that course.

[Syt]

There was some worries that if Putin got deposed more hardline guys might take over who believe the war in Ukraine should be fought more ruthlessly. But given the apparent morale issues of Russian units, would they even find majority support for this in the military?

[DGuller]

Hopefully Putin's plans of escalation shook enough people strongly enough at the same time to make them go "guys, do you think this idiot is going to get us all killed?"