Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[jimmy olsen]

Now this is moving fast...

EU expects Ukraine application 'imminently'

The EU is expecting Ukraine's application to join the European Union "imminently" and officials in Brussels said "this will need to be assessed very rapidly by the council and the decision made as to whether to request an urgent opinion from the European commission".

Earlier today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy had made a video address in which he appealed to the European union for urgent accession to the 27-member bloc for the country under special procedures.

For Ukraine to become an EU member state it will go through a pre-accession period of varying length, during which the candidate country adapts its institutions, standards and infrastructure to enable it to meet its obligations as a member state.

The accession process involves compliance with the accession criteria including adoption and implementation of the acquis.

Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are currently candidate countries.

Looks like Zelensky is the one who can be credited with this

So it seems Zelensky convinced the EU to impose greater sanctions and help Ukraine in a way it was otherwise not going to do.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1498106047860408321

[Syt]

Shoigu reports that the "deterrence forces" (German paper Die Zeit say he lists the Strategic Missile Forces, Northern and Pacific Fleets plus long range air units) are now on high alert as per Putin's orders yesterday.

[jimmy olsen]

Oh - footage of Russia using grads and just bombarding Kharkiv, just as the delegates meet for the opening talks.

Apparently some very graphic images which I thankfully haven't seen but it seems that there at least we've reached the frustration at not being able to take a city so just indiscriminatly shelling it stage

But this is only like 4 days in?

I've seen references to this not being "shock and awe" which is mostly known as a reference to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but if you remember the actual invasion of Iraq it took almost two weeks to get to Baghdad and there was a ton of angst that things weren't going well for the Allies. It took over two weeks to secure Basra which is in some ways comparable in terms of the stepping off point to Kharkiv. In hindsight the Iraqi military collapsed without meaningful resistance and the invasion was successful and quick--but that was not the perspective at the time. (obviously there were massive problems and ultimate failure in the subsequent occupation)

I believe the russian military is as messed up and underfunded as every other state institution in russia, but in terms of how things are going there is still a massive fog of war. Maybe Russia is frustrated by the lack of military progress, maybe they are on schedule, maybe they are somewhere in between...

Kiev is a 100km from the Belorusian border. Iraq is on the other side of the world from the US. The Russians are attacking from three different directions. They can read the road signs. It should be much easier for them.

[garbon]

Looking like Fifa will now ban Russia.

[The Larch]

Looks like Zelensky is the one who can be credited with this

So it seems Zelensky convinced the EU to impose greater sanctions and help Ukraine in a way it was otherwise not going to do.

It seems that sometimes it pays to have an actor as President...

[celedhring]

Oh - footage of Russia using grads and just bombarding Kharkiv, just as the delegates meet for the opening talks.

Apparently some very graphic images which I thankfully haven't seen but it seems that there at least we've reached the frustration at not being able to take a city so just indiscriminatly shelling it stage

But this is only like 4 days in?

I've seen references to this not being "shock and awe" which is mostly known as a reference to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but if you remember the actual invasion of Iraq it took almost two weeks to get to Baghdad and there was a ton of angst that things weren't going well for the Allies. It took over two weeks to secure Basra which is in some ways comparable in terms of the stepping off point to Kharkiv. In hindsight the Iraqi military collapsed without meaningful resistance and the invasion was successful and quick--but that was not the perspective at the time. (obviously there were massive problems and ultimate failure in the subsequent occupation)

I believe the russian military is as messed up and underfunded as every other state institution in russia, but in terms of how things are going there is still a massive fog of war. Maybe Russia is frustrated by the lack of military progress, maybe they are on schedule, maybe they are somewhere in between...

Kiev is a 100km from the Belorusian border. Iraq is on the other side of the world from the US. The Russians are attacking from three different directions. They can read the road signs. It should be much easier for them.

Also, the coalition's losses during the whole operation were like 200 KIA? The Russkies are already running up a far higher bill - which I know it's business as usual for Russian armies, but still.

[Jacob]

Looking like Fifa will now ban Russia.

Good.

[Sheilbh]

Reuters reporting that UK is proposing as the next "isolation" step to remove Russia from Interpol.

Via Russian press following Macron-Putin call:

Putin told Macron that a settlement with Ukraine is possible only with unconditional consideration of

* Recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea
* demilitarization and denazification of the Ukrainian state
* ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine

— RIA

Still very, very maximalist goals.

[Maladict]

Is he afraid he's going to lose Crimea over this?

[Jacob]

Yeah, I don't expect much to come from these peace talks.

I don't think Putin is willing to settle for anything less than his actual war goals, and given Ukraine's success so far I don't they're willing to roll over.

[Jacob]

Is he afraid he's going to lose Crimea over this?

I think it's more that he want formal recognition that Crimea is Russian from Ukraine - and presumably from everyone else. I believe everyone still considers Crimea illegally occupied Ukrainian territory?

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I don't expect much to come from these peace talks.

I don't think Putin is willing to settle for anything less than his actual war goals, and given Ukraine's success so far I don't they're willing to roll over.

He can't do that now.  I am not sure what, if any, off ramps might exist for him in the future. This probably ends with Putin losing power and whoever takes power finding a graceful exit.

[Duque de Bragança]

Looking like Fifa will now ban Russia.

Good.

Hold your breath, it's Gianni Infantino we are talking about.
More optimistic with UEFA, for once.

PS: FIFA and UEFA banned Russia for the 2022 World Cup. Pleasantly surprised.

However, the Russian Football Federation team can still play the play-offs for the World Cup. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

But this is only like 4 days in?

I've seen references to this not being "shock and awe" which is mostly known as a reference to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but if you remember the actual invasion of Iraq it took almost two weeks to get to Baghdad and there was a ton of angst that things weren't going well for the Allies. It took over two weeks to secure Basra which is in some ways comparable in terms of the stepping off point to Kharkiv. In hindsight the Iraqi military collapsed without meaningful resistance and the invasion was successful and quick--but that was not the perspective at the time. (obviously there were massive problems and ultimate failure in the subsequent occupation)

I believe the russian military is as messed up and underfunded as every other state institution in russia, but in terms of how things are going there is still a massive fog of war. Maybe Russia is frustrated by the lack of military progress, maybe they are on schedule, maybe they are somewhere in between...

It's correct that just because we're at say, day 4 or day 10 and X has not happened yet, that doesn't necessarily mean Russia is doing good or bad. You have to really ask yourself, "What is Russia's strategic goal?" Then ask yourself "are their current tactical operations succeeding in that strategic goal?"

Now, none of us know the truth of Russia's goals with 100% certainty, but we can make a reasoned analysis based on what we have seen. Russia did not move into Ukraine initially with what I would characterize as a broad front, general invasion to grab tons of territory. It was instead a laser focused effort to seize key points if your goal was to "take over the country's government": the capital, key power stations, key port and airport facilities. This suggests there is a decent likelihood that Russia's hope was it could seize key pieces of the Ukrainian state and then essentially declare Zelensky "resigned" or whatever and find some Ukrainian citizen friendly to Russia they could put in his place. In this scenario I imagine they believe that much like in Crimea, much of Ukraine would be mostly fine with this and be happy to continue their lives as a vassalized state of Russia, since (in Putin's mind) these people had no real loyalty to the current Ukrainian state at all.

This actually isn't a crazy/stupid plan, per se, it has a lot of resemblance to our initial takeover of Iraq in the early 2000s. And in Iraq, while we very quickly mismanaged the sectarian problems, in the earliest days there was significant Iraqi domestic opposition to Saddam, toppling of Ba'athist statues and etc. Saddam's government had always been a minoritarian government that large swathes of Iraq (the Shiites and Kurds) despised. That war got sideways because we had no real answer for how to manage the competing interests of the different religious/ethnic enclaves in Iraq and they eventually decided to go to war with us to get us out, because they knew they wouldn't be able to "settle up" until we were out of the country.

Now we have to look at whether or not Russia's tactical operations have served that strategic goal. From what we can see so far, not very much. Several high-profile special forces raids ended in a complete defeat for Russian forces. Zelensky was not decapitated in the early days of the war, and in fact has now become a domestic and international hero. Russia has done a little better at some of the Southern ports and with some locations in the East, but overall if we assume the strategic goal was as stated, the tactical operations haven't worked. Mainly because to serve that strategic goal you would need to start seeing section of Ukraine break away from the Ukrainian state on their own and accept Russian governance. Instead you're seeing widespread domestic opposition to Russia's incursion--including even among Russian speaking Ukrainians.

One of the issues with Putin's strategic goal is that it isn't easily achieved with more troops and more bombs. In fact more troops and more bombs may make even more enemies of Russia. Mind you Russia could have 100% of Ukraine's land occupied and still be failing at its strategic goal, if that strategic goal is a pliable Ukraine friendly to Russia. If it ends up with a hostile Ukraine that requires a permanent occupation force of 150,000+ Russian soldiers, open-ended with no end in sight, that would not really be seen as a "win" based on the presumed strategic goal suggested by their initial days of operations in the war.

[Tamas]

Because of the quickly unfolding economic turmoil, to which all the military losses (plus the cultural/sport ones) will be added, I think Putin will very soon (if not already) will find himself in the situation of the WW1 belligerents: simply too much have been spent in this effort to just say "well ok fine let's go back to how things were". He'd hung on a lamppost if he did that. So from his point of view there's only potential upside to further escalation.