Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

My workplace has two Russians and two Ukrainians. They're both attending today's antiwar protest in BCN together.

As I've said in the past, the Russians at work have pretty despicable politics  (they never comment on domestic Russian stuff though), so that's something.

We're going to a protest later today too... I don't know if I'd call our intention "anti war" as much as "pro Ukraine", but yeah.

[Josquius]

A thought - could drones be sent to help Ukraine? Hell. "Send" the pilots to help them too. If they're painted in Ukrainian colours and are models they might have access to then who would know?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Belgium seems to have committed to deliver 2000 machineguns and 3800 tons of fuel for the Ukrainian army. That's quite an improvement over the stuff promised earlier.  Still not stellar but it's Belgium. I hope they don't forget to send the ammo too 

[Jacob]

Zelensky really has risen to the occasion. I have serious respect for that man. The Americans have also gobsmacked me with how they actually took a bad hand and, for once in forever, actually played it well. Calling out every Russian action well in advance, letting Kremlin propaganda vehemently deny it, only to be vindicated weeks later destroyed the Russian internal propaganda effort, hence you have widespread unease and protests within Russia.

Agreed on both counts.

Putin and Russia continually lying lying lying and being shown to have done that almost immediately afterwards - with no smashing success to point at to excuse - has really highlighted how venal Putin is. Reports of Russian soldiers who thought they were going on exercise, only to find themselves in combat.

Then contrast that with Zelensky who is among his people, saying all the right things. The stories of Ukrainians returning from abroad to fight. Others saying "I don't know how to fight, but I must - and they will train me. Old and young. Men and women. The heroic self sacrifice.

The contrast couldn't be greater.

[Maladict]

We're sending 200 stingers. Or at least we're trying to, something about logistical problems. Maybe we accidentally sold all our trucks along with the tanks.

[celedhring]

Belgium seems to have committed to deliver 2000 machineguns and 3800 tons of fuel for the Ukrainian army. That's quite an improvement over the stuff promised earlier.  Still not stellar but it's Belgium. I hope they don't forget to send the ammo too

I hope we don't try to send Ukraine any of our gear, it would probably be more helpful to their cause if we sent it to Russia instead...

[Sheilbh]

Yes, rather bizarre. It cannot even be for domestic reasons as public opinion is firmly in favor of more help for Ukraine.

It reminds me of decision making during the Euro-crisis but at least then I think there was domestic political reasons. My assumption with this sort of stuff is that the bureaucratic drive towards inertia ("this is the way we've always done it") is maybe quite strong and there's possibly a process element too - especially because from the outside it looks like what's happening is at odds with the German state's understanding and approach to the world since at least Schroeder. So I wonder if that's also an element of it being difficult to respond to a crisis that is perceived as outside the realm of possibilities even a month ago (I think that was incorrect and based on misreading 2008 and 2014 - but Germany is very far alone in that).

I know Tamas thinks conspirators but I normally think things like this almost always go back to organisations and bureaucracies

The 90's billionaire playboy oligarch with extensive assets in the West is a very rare species these days. Most Russian industries are headed by former KGB boomers, loyal vassals all, of Putin. They don't care about money, they have the state. If they want to holiday somewhere with a Mediterranean climate, they can go to Crimea.

I agree and Putin spent the first 8 years of his rule making it very clear to oligarchs that they don't have a role in politics - Berezovsky, Khodorovsky. It's a one way street. They can keep their wealth, maybe even get a state sinecure like be appointed governor somewhere - but the trade off is they don't get involved in politics and occasionally they "voluntarily" donate to, say, pay for a World Cup stadium.

In terms of sanctioning individuals I think we'd better focusing on all the members of the Duma, all the heads of state agencies etc and the big more or less state-owned or state-dependent companies (as you say, who largely have a background in the KGB).

In terms of effective sanctions against Russia - from the EU perspective I'd Euro-clearining (the US and UK have ended dollar and sterling clearing ) - and for the west generally I'd look at sanctioning every single Russian bank big or small which I think would have far more significant impacts than SWIFT (but the Ukrainians are very clear they want SWIFT sanctioned so I get prioritising that).

I'll second that question: can't the west do that? Would be nice and ironic too.

The big reason, I think, is why they have their assets here instead of Russia in the first place: we have the rule of law. Which makes it more difficult and I don't think we should throw that away. I think there's a good case for seizing oligarchs' assets but I don't think it'd be quick and easy unless we go down a state of emergency route and suspend normal processes.

The first challenge is identifying them - at least in the UK. The government is going to introduce new laws which they're planning to pass on Monday that would require disclosure of the beneficial owner of overseas/off-shore companies buying assets in the UK. But that's going to take time to roll-out practically and will also require a big shift (and extra money) because it's going to mvoe Companies House from basically being a filing organisation into one that verifies information.

The other challenge is just doing it will take time and cost a lot of money because very rich people will hire very good lawyers to keep their assets. Again I only know the UK (and my understanding is the US is far better at this enforcement side than us or anyone else in Europe), but there is a "unexplained wealth order" which basically requires someone to explain the source of their money and if they can't allows seizure. In the year that was intrduced law enforcement used it four times (organised crime, Nazarbayev and Aliyev properties) - the court (up to the Court of Appeal) struck down three of them at huge legal cost. Because of the money they have you need to make sure you tick all the boxes. Again that's not insurmountabe but I think it requires putting money into the bits of law enforcement who'd go after them so that at least it's a fair fight when they're sitting opposite a bank of QCs instructed by Herbert Smiths or Mishcon de Reya. And it will take time.

If we want to arm Ukraine - and we should - just spend the money now.

We're going to a protest later today too... I don't know if I'd call our intention "anti war" as much as "pro Ukraine", but yeah.

Popped along to a (left-wing) Ukraine solidarity demo earlier today - photo from Paul Mason. And the mood was very much "pro-UKraine":


Also the London Polish community are organising up a storm collecting sanitary products, bedding, clothes etc to take to Poland for refugees.

Agreed on both counts.

Putin and Russia continually lying lying lying and being shown to have done that almost immediately afterwards - with no smashing success to point at to excuse - has really highlighted how venal Putin is. Reports of Russian soldiers who thought they were going on exercise, only to find themselves in combat.

Then contrast that with Zelensky who is among his people, saying all the right things. The stories of Ukrainians returning from abroad to fight. Others saying "I don't know how to fight, but I must - and they will train me. Old and young. Men and women. The heroic self sacrifice.

The contrast couldn't be greater.

Yeah - totally agree. The contrast is extraordinary of Putin's only statement that I've seen being that deluded call for the military to stage a coup in Ukraine to remove the "drug addicts and neo-Nazis" in power.

The contrast with Zelensky's messages is extraordinary. Lovely piece on this (non-paywalled) in the New Statesman:
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2022/02/the-exemplary-resilience-of-volodymyr-zelensky

[Jacob]

On a related note...

I think it was mentioned here how an apologist argument could be made about supporting Ukraine, but abandoning Georgia et. al.

There's probably a bit of substance to it, but I think it has an answer. IMO the time has come for the West to be much more proactive in supporting victims of Russian bullying, where ever they are; both on moral grounds, and purely on practical this-is-cold-war-2.0-let's-take-it-seriously grounds.

Putin and his apologists have long banged on about how "the West" is deliberately undermining Russian influence and interests. Personally, I think we've tried to do "democracy is grand, mostly" and "human rights, let's support them when it's not too inconvenient" while trying not to piss Putin off too much. I think the time to actually commit to what we're being accused of.

What does Georgia need? Who else is being oppressed by Putin? What can we do to help? What can we do to piss in Putin's cereals?

[Syt]

Aeroflot flight path Austria/Russia. Looking at flightradar24 at a Budapest=>Russia flight taking the same route.

[The Larch]

I know Tamas thinks conspirators but I normally think things like this almost always go back to organisations and bureaucracies

The tweets I saw trying to explain Germany's position regarding its block to armament deliveries refered, very politely, to "strong and long-standing institutional barriers to military adventurism derived from the post-war consensus", or something like that.

[Syt]

Considering all the places that Germany has sent and is sending weapons to I find that argument a bit weak.

[The Larch]

Modern warfare:

[DGuller]

Is there some reason we cannot just start siezing the assets of the oligarchs in the West?

Sell them and use the money to buy more weapons for Ukraine.

The 90's billionaire playboy oligarch with extensive assets in the West is a very rare species these days. Most Russian industries are headed by former KGB boomers, loyal vassals all, of Putin. They don't care about money, they have the state. If they want to holiday somewhere with a Mediterranean climate, they can go to Crimea.

The ex-KGB oligarchs are just as rich as the older school oligarchs, and they most definitely care about money.  Money is how their power is denominated, and also projected outside of Russian borders.  They're also pragmatic enough to know that they may not always be in good graces of current or future power, and calling in old favors is a lot less reliable than calling up your Swiss banker from a London suburb.  They also know that keeping assets in Russia is the same as relying on old favors; Russian governments regard letting you keep your assets as a favor extended to you, with the expectation of payback.

[DGuller]

A thought - could drones be sent to help Ukraine? Hell. "Send" the pilots to help them too. If they're painted in Ukrainian colours and are models they might have access to then who would know?

I wonder if US has any Ukrainian-American pilots?  Does US military allow its pilots to take vacations in warzones?  If it does, are the pilots allowed to take their planes with them?

[Josquius]

Also the London Polish community are organising up a storm collecting sanitary products, bedding, clothes etc to take to Poland for refugees.

Its quite fascinating that Poland is being particularly great at this considering their usual anti-refugee stance.