Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[The Minsky Moment]

The French couldn't figure out an acronym to go with Vercingetorix?

For the export market I bet.

CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie has the merit of being short.

VÉhicule Réutilisable à Canon INtégré à GÉnérateur de TOnnerre à Rythme Intensif Xi

I like it.

[Duque de Bragança]

The French couldn't figure out an acronym to go with Vercingetorix?

For the export market I bet.

CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie has the merit of being short.

VÉhicule Réutilisable à Canon INtégré à GÉnérateur de TOnnerre à Rythme Intensif Xi

I like it.

Thanks.

[viper37]

Wouldn't the West pour money and materiel into Ukraine to bleed Putin's army and treasure dry? It'd be too big a risk, I figured.

The expectation was they wouldn't move an inch, except enact a few token protests, basically, what had been done before.

He strongly miscalculated.  Doest not mean the decision process was irrational.

[viper37]

It's in some ways worse that Putin is a strategic moron. He does completely crazy things, gets his teeth kicked in but then doubles down to the last vatnik conscript. He might resort to desperate measures because he is inept.

The US did a completely crazy thing in going to Vietnam after inciting the French to leave.  Then, they doubled down to the last conscript trying to hold on to South Vietnam.

At some point, no matter the mistake, you have your hand stuck in the grinder and you can't just pull out.

If Putin pulls out now, he loses face, no one will ever take him and Russia seriously and the regime will be destabilized.

He's better to go all in for some moderate gains and declare victory.

Also, lots of commentors are saying he wants southern Ukraine to go after Moldavia.  I don't know how he expects to do it while still fighting an active war against Ukraine's assault, but, we never know.

At that point, if he really does that, then I'll concede the point he is totally irrational, moving phantom divisions.

[Jacob]

Don't forget he'll also need to find forces for his upcoming attacks on Finland and Sweden (and the rest of NATO as well, I suppose) once they apply to join NATO.

[Jacob]

Thread on the likely impact from the fire in the chemical plant in Dmitrievsky.

TLDR: not good for Russia

Slightly longer TLDR: This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier  to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. Russia's manufacturing ability to support its war effort took a massive hit.

[crazy canuck]

Thread on the likely impact from the fire in the chemical plant in Dmitrievsky.

TLDR: not good for Russia

Slightly longer TLDR: This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier  to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. Russia's manufacturing ability to support its war effort took a massive hit.

Someone knew where to hit them where it really hurts....

[Sheilbh]

Also reports of several enlistment centres being firebombed in Russia - I think 5-6 - but not sure how reliable.

[Josquius]

Thread on the likely impact from the fire in the chemical plant in Dmitrievsky.

TLDR: not good for Russia

Slightly longer TLDR: This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier  to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. Russia's manufacturing ability to support its war effort took a massive hit.

Interesting this isn't being more widely reported if its as bad as this twitter guy says.

Seems awfully coincidental for a fire there now. I wonder what it was :Russian dissidents? Ukranian saboteurs behind the lines?

[Jacob]

Reading a thing (a report by RUSI) that says indications are that the May 9th deadline is pivoting from a victory announcement (since it's impossible) to the time for an announcement of wider mobilization (to put Russia on war footing as it fights an existential battle with NATO and the West in Ukraine).

[Grey Fox]

Canada, surprising everyone, has sent M777s to Ukraine with Carl Gustav anti-armour munition.

Must really put a dent into our strategic stockpile but then again the USA isn't going to invade anytime soon.

[Zoupa]

We sent 4.

Apparently that's 10% of our arsenal.

What a joke.

[viper37]

Don't forget he'll also need to find forces for his upcoming attacks on Finland and Sweden (and the rest of NATO as well, I suppose) once they apply to join NATO.

That's just intimidation.  Bullying neighbours is a Russian specialty, so it's just verbal abuse to look tough in front of his crowd. 

Moldavia could be more serious though.  But I'll worry once Russia enacts a general mobilization order.

[viper37]

Thread on the likely impact from the fire in the chemical plant in Dmitrievsky.

TLDR: not good for Russia

Slightly longer TLDR: This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier  to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. Russia's manufacturing ability to support its war effort took a massive hit.

Someone knew where to hit them where it really hurts....

Just a coincidence.  Like Russian troops walking and getting lost in Ukraine in 2014.

[viper37]

We sent 4.

Apparently that's 10% of our arsenal.

What a joke.

That's what you get when you elect leftwing parties who don't care about anything but their image