Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Obviously lots and lots of not knowing - so take all of this with a pinch of salt. But Guardian correspondent noting that some of the villages that are being reported as liberated officially (including with images) are being liberated by divisions that were not on the list of forces re-kitted out with Western equipment.

And on that note is still cautioning that while the counter-offensive has started it's clear the main effort still hasn't. But there is, just from what Ukraine is acknowledging incremental progress.

Also saw a journalist note that Western officials off the record were cautiously optimistic, particularly about the south and said the effort was "going well". Perhaps relatedly, from what I understand, that seems similar to the message on Russian military Telegram. Lots and lots of "everything's going okay, but it's serious". I also saw one of the Russian Telegrams note that after Kharkiv gave them "orderly withdrawals" and Kherson gave them "moving to more defensible positions", they're now hearing a lot about "surrendering low-lying terrain"

[Barrister]

Obviously lots and lots of not knowing - so take all of this with a pinch of salt. But Guardian correspondent noting that some of the villages that are being reported as liberated officially (including with images) are being liberated by divisions that were not on the list of forces re-kitted out with Western equipment.

And on that note is still cautioning that while the counter-offensive has started it's clear the main effort still hasn't. But there is, just from what Ukraine is acknowledging incremental progress.

Also saw a journalist note that Western officials off the record were cautiously optimistic, particularly about the south and said the effort was "going well". Perhaps relatedly, from what I understand, that seems similar to the message on Russian military Telegram. Lots and lots of "everything's going okay, but it's serious". I also saw one of the Russian Telegrams note that after Kharkiv gave them "orderly withdrawals" and Kherson gave them "moving to more defensible positions", they're now hearing a lot about "surrendering low-lying terrain"

It does feel like Ukraine is really going for not just incremental gains, but a major blow here.  Maybe not quite "Sevastopol by Christmas", but probably the Sea of Azov / cutting the land bridge.

By the way - how exactly do you pronounce Sevastopol?  I always thought it was Se-VAS-to-pol, but then I heard it pronounced as Se-va-STOP-ol on a podcast as well.

[DGuller]

It does feel like Ukraine is really going for not just incremental gains, but a major blow here.  Maybe not quite "Sevastopol by Christmas", but probably the Sea of Azov / cutting the land bridge.

By the way - how exactly do you pronounce Sevastopol?  I always thought it was Se-VAS-to-pol, but then I heard it pronounced as Se-va-STOP-ol on a podcast as well.

The bolded is the correct way.

[Josquius]

Read a piece earlier that they're using a few leopards in the west to give the Russians the idea that's the major counter attack focus. Most still remain in reserve though-no sign of any challengers or abrams yet.

And jesus is a herectic. Facts.

[Sheilbh]

It does feel like Ukraine is really going for not just incremental gains, but a major blow here.  Maybe not quite "Sevastopol by Christmas", but probably the Sea of Azov / cutting the land bridge.

I think you're right - but I also think incremental gains against an entrenched enemy is probably what you'd expect in the first week of a counter offensive? It's not like they could really do a surprise attack. As I say that is from what they have openly acknowledged as liberated territory.

Who knows - but I'm leaning a bit more to the Western officials saying, off the record, that it's "going well" and the increasing "everything's fine. Also the "I'm in no way have a massive nervous breakdown" tone of Russian military Telegram as I think they've always been interestingly accurate if you read between the lines while the usual Ukrainian sources seem silent, as requested.

By the way - how exactly do you pronounce Sevastopol?  I always thought it was Se-VAS-to-pol, but then I heard it pronounced as Se-va-STOP-ol on a podcast as well.

Not sure - all I'll say is that when I was in Ukraine everything I tried to pronounce I got the stress (and pronunciation!) wrong

But being abraod I always find the stress the most difficult thing because I feel like most other languages don't have the weird stressing that English - it's more neutrally spread out across words which I find very difficult.

[Josquius]

I wonder on the plan with crimea. Siege?

[Barrister]

It does feel like Ukraine is really going for not just incremental gains, but a major blow here.  Maybe not quite "Sevastopol by Christmas", but probably the Sea of Azov / cutting the land bridge.

By the way - how exactly do you pronounce Sevastopol?  I always thought it was Se-VAS-to-pol, but then I heard it pronounced as Se-va-STOP-ol on a podcast as well.

The bolded is the correct way.

Dyakuyu.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder on the plan with crimea. Siege?

From what I've read - and as I say I've no idea - it seems like both sides aren't fully committing yet and there's a bit of a game of chicken at the minute.

But my guess would be basically a siege but also, maybe, not even that? The canal's useless (thanks to Russia). I imagine Ukraine will want to cut the land bridge and then use their missiles now to cut the Azov bridge and basicaly make Russia choose either a massive commitment to keep troops in Crimea supplied (possibly weakening other efforts) or to pull out?

[Barrister]

I wonder on the plan with crimea. Siege?

Crimea is going to be tricky.  Even more so than Donetsk.

Crimea is #1 been under Russian occupation for 8 1/2 years.  Ukrainians can no longer really rely on partisans or co-operation.  #2 logistics will be a bitch.  One of the advantages Ukrainians have had throughout the war are short and easy supply lines - the advantage of fighting on your own territory.  Once you try t cross into the isthimus supply will be far trickier.

I have no doubt the Ukrainians (and western informal allies) have discussed Crimea, but they're probably more hoping for a negotiated peace or just general Russian military collapse.

[Valmy]

Sevastopol by Christmas

Sevastopol by Christmas 1854 1855!

[viper37]

I wonder on the plan with crimea. Siege?

From what I've read - and as I say I've no idea - it seems like both sides aren't fully committing yet and there's a bit of a game of chicken at the minute.

I've seen that a movie.  Didn't turn out so well for the defenders.

Still a good movie though!

[viper37]

I wonder on the plan with crimea. Siege?

Crimea is going to be tricky.  Even more so than Donetsk.

Crimea is #1 been under Russian occupation for 8 1/2 years.  Ukrainians can no longer really rely on partisans or co-operation.  #2 logistics will be a bitch.  One of the advantages Ukrainians have had throughout the war are short and easy supply lines - the advantage of fighting on your own territory.  Once you try t cross into the isthimus supply will be far trickier.

I have no doubt the Ukrainians (and western informal allies) have discussed Crimea, but they're probably more hoping for a negotiated peace or just general Russian military collapse.

Either way, it's risky, I guess.

They could focus on the East and liberate that part of the country, pushing back the Russians and stabilizing the Crimean front.
But once they do, the Western supplies will not be as forthcoming as before and they will lose momentum to free Crimea.

If they they try to free Crimea, the Russians could counter attack in the East, and some allies could chicken out on sending more supplies.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

For some reason I would not be surprised if the Ukrainians made a successful crossing of the Delaware... I mean Dniepr in Kherson.
Not soon, but not too far of either. Given that it seems the Russians have moved a lot of their troops there to elsewhere.

And not necessarily a big attack either but maybe just enough to scare the living daylights out of the Russians.

[Josquius]

For some reason I would not be surprised if the Ukrainians made a successful crossing of the Delaware... I mean Dniepr in Kherson.
Not soon, but not too far of either. Given that it seems the Russians have moved a lot of their troops there to elsewhere.

And not necessarily a big attack either but maybe just enough to scare the living daylights out of the Russians.

They were already probing and this was likely key to the Russians blowing the dam. So yes. Almost certainly they will do the same to show the Russians they just bought a week on that front and they still have to watch it.

[Tamas]

A Kremlinology moment to support that the Wagner leader guy is still a rabid dog in Putin's employ: Putin making very sure he is keeping distance from Shoigu: https://twitter.com/i/status/1668340149116350464