Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets" in like, two days.

Borrell's announced the EU is sending fighter planes to Ukraine which is quite the escalation from as you say protecting the Gucci loafer industry (Apparently it's basically just that Poland has a lot of spare MiGs and it's being wrapped into EU supplies - probably to give protection to Poland).

It's a hell of a shift and if it keeps up you can't help but feel that a new power is awakening which is very good news for the west in general. Definitely proves the theory that the EU evolves through crisis though

[Jacob]

I'm kinda curious what happened in the EU, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets".

I think individuals and institutions needed a few days to go through the "this is so inconvenient, how do we preserve the status quo" stage to get to "wait, this is a civilization-defining existential clash here."

And I think that the snowball started too. No one is sticking out as the one "super militant" person or country by doing this. It's a bunch of drops adding up to a very solid consensus. And right now, I think no one wants to look like shirkers either. I mean, I was happy that Denmark offered a mobile hospital that can treat 100 patients (including ICU) a day. Great, they need that. But I am even happier that they're providing effective weaponry.

We all (more or less) grew up on stories of the heroic resistors fighting impossible odds against Fascist oppressors. Here is Ukraine, doing just that. It resonates. And even though it's a platitude "never again" - as well as all the stories of collaborators and people doing the right thing while risking their lives - resonate deeply across many many different groups in Europe.

Slightly more cynically - this is an easy opportunity for any politician in Europe to look strong and like they're doing the right thing in a way that's going to be very hard to criticize. So let's pile it on.

[DGuller]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets" in like, two days.

The biggest factor was probably a realization that Russia is a paper tiger, and that the revulsion at Russia is truly widespread.  I suspect that there was also a feeling of guilt from quibbling about slight discomfort from Russian sanctions after seeing the bravery and conviction of Ukrainian leaders and Ukrainian citizens.

[Solmyr]

AOC: "I've sat on a committee with this guy for years. He talks like this every day."

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1498038441564585986

[OttoVonBismarck]

There's definitely a broad sense of anger and backbone being shown by EU members towards Russia, I'm particularly surprised by Germany. Not sure what has lead to such a large shift in thinking.

[frunk]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets" in like, two days.

The biggest factor was probably a realization that Russia is a paper tiger, and that the revulsion at Russia is truly widespread.  I suspect that there was also a feeling of guilt from quibbling about slight discomfort from Russian sanctions after seeing the bravery and conviction of Ukrainian leaders and Ukrainian citizens.

Hopefully also a realization that unilateral demilitarization doesn't work as a deterrent.

[Threviel]

There's also the fact that this is a chance to neuter Russia for a generation, let them bleed against Ukraine and the only cost for us is a few weapons.

[Solmyr]

Its said that Putin has broke the one golden rule of the modern world. You don't go to war. I read a piece the other day on how dictators like him have just given up on pretending now.
But thinking on this it doesn't seem right. America has gone to war before. And Putin's past adventure in Georgia didn't get him in trouble.
So I will modify slightly. Could it be the world operates on a yellow/red card system? Or 3 strikes?
Or maybe its just that Putin did an awful job of manufacturing a cassus beli this time. It all basically came down to him sitting on the border and threatening to invade then doing it. The pretending was needed.

Also Ukrainians are white Europeans. If this was happening somewhere like Kazakhstan, there would be a lot less interest.

[Jacob]

I'm kinda curious to know what happened in the EU behind the scenes, we seem to have gone from "let's put in a carveout for Gucci bags" to "Here's 100000000 AT rockets" in like, two days.

The biggest factor was probably a realization that Russia is a paper tiger, and that the revulsion at Russia is truly widespread.  I suspect that there was also a feeling of guilt from quibbling about slight discomfort from Russian sanctions after seeing the bravery and conviction of Ukrainian leaders and Ukrainian citizens.

Yes, I think the response of Zelensky and of Ukrainians in general contributed significantly.

[celedhring]

euronews
@euronews
❝There are many topics where we work very closely together (with Ukraine). And indeed, over time, they belong to us, they are one of us and we want them in (EU).❞

EU chief
@vonderleyen
talks to Euronews about the war in Ukraine and the prospects of Kyiv joining the bloc.

What the fuck is going on

[celedhring]

Anyway, I'm seeing satellite imagery of a gigantic Russian column (5 km long) heading towards Kiev so this might not last long.

[Jacob]

Also Ukrainians are white Europeans. If this was happening somewhere like Kazakhstan, there would be a lot less interest.

I think this is too vast an oversimplification. "White Europeans" doesn't count for that much. Just look at the discourse around immigration in the UK, for example.

I agree that Kazakhstan would've gotten a different response, but "White European" is at best a minor contributor to that. I think the stakes - as defined in that Russian "now that we've won" piece shared by Sheilbh upthread - is much more significant.

[Sheilbh]

There's definitely a broad sense of anger and backbone being shown by EU members towards Russia, I'm particularly surprised by Germany. Not sure what has lead to such a large shift in thinking.

I've no idea. In Germany this isn't just a bit of flim-flam - it's thirty years of consensus being thrown out: ostpolitik, change through trade - and re-basing on you new (and in my view more accurate) assumptions/principles.

We all (more or less) grew up on stories of the heroic resistors fighting impossible odds against Fascist oppressors. Here is Ukraine, doing just that. It resonates. And even though it's a platitude "never again" - as well as all the stories of collaborators and people doing the right thing while risking their lives - resonate deeply across many many different groups in Europe.

Yep. The "they look like us line" is of course just racist but this conflict resonates with Europe in an incredibly profound way: crowded Mitteleuropean train stations filled with people trying to escape, tanks abandoned on Eastern European landscapes, calls for an "International Legion" etc. The thing I find astonishing is that Russia shares so many of those myths and stories - and had a huge blindspot to them.

And it reminds me a bit of Hong Kong and the UK - where there was a handover and an agreement which got dumped and people were being repressed. They were on the streets waving British passports and asking for Britain to come good with its promise at that handover which created enormous political pressure. I think there's something similar here because this all kicked off with Euromaidan - and Zelensky's repeated calls (no doubt repeated in private with leaders too) to give Ukraine a "European direction". Ukraine had chosen and was fighting for the right to make that choice. There's a sense of maybe debt or a need to answer there.

Totally agree on Zelensky and Ukrainians too - and again hugely resonant.

What on earth is the tank doing out driving by itself?
That seems militarily unwise.

Interestingly Michael Kofman who's a specialist on Russia's military (and had a lot interesting to say about the conflict in general) just posted about this - basically it's a mess:

Michael Kofman
@KofmanMichael
Russian units are not fighting as BTGs. They're not doing combined arms warfare. They're driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon and VDV units forward. Tanks without infantry. It's not going well for them because this isn't how they organize and fight (more later).
Folks are taking the right lessons about Ukraine's military from this, but a number of the wrong ones about the Russian military. This operation looks terrible, and it should, because it's assumptions were nuts, but this isn't the Russian mil fighting as it would against NATO.
It's taken me a while to figure out what they're trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. Ukraine's military has done great. The Russian op is a bizarre scheme, based on terrible political assumptions, with poor relationship to their training & capabilities.
Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Often small formations outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support getting ambushed - its a mess.

[Jacob]

Anyway, I'm seeing satellite imagery of a gigantic Russian column (5 km long) heading towards Kiev so this might not last long.

It's early days still.

If this ends without atrocities and massive loss of civilian life, that would be ideal... but I don't think anyone really thinks it's likely even if we hope for it.

And at this point, even if they take Kyev what will that get them? Will Ukraine surrender? Will the West stop supplying Ukrainian fighters? I doubt it in both cases.

[mongers]

A long term solution could be for there to be a non-aligned Ukraine that is armed with nuclear weapons, no NATO membership but given this war a Very credible deterrent to Russia.

One lesson from this war is that no country should ever give up nuclear weapons once they have them.

I'd be happy to see Ukraine as the 9th nuclear weapon armed state in the world, if they embarked on a crash course, along with a bit of indirect American/Israeli/French aid they could have a deliverable bomb within 2-3 years, plus they've quite some aerospace/missile manufacturing experience so a useable IRBM design wouldn't be too difficult.