Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

Nice from Putin to enact that travel ban on our behalf.

Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
According to Russian law, since the start of mobilisation(Putin's decree published and in force), all eligible men(25M) are prohibited to leave their areas without document from enlistment office

Russia can train, equip and deploy 300,000 soldiers to Ukraine just in time for winter?  Logistics are bad enough today.

I mean, what's the alternative? Putin to admit defeat? Not an option.

[celedhring]

Also apparently the regional governors will set the recruitment targets, which I guess this means this will be a scheme to press gang a bunch of minorities while still keeping the "core Russians" more or less untouched.

[Syt]

Nice from Putin to enact that travel ban on our behalf.

Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
According to Russian law, since the start of mobilisation(Putin's decree published and in force), all eligible men(25M) are prohibited to leave their areas without document from enlistment office

Russia can train, equip and deploy 300,000 soldiers to Ukraine just in time for winter?  Logistics are bad enough today.

Might use the reservists to free up additional regulars that were previously needed elsewhere?

[The Brain]

The mobilization, if it is actually carried out, will be a shitshow that at best will deliver untrained, unmotivated cannon fodder. Since they won't have any good equipment and supply will be spotty at best their combat value will be close to zero.

Russia long ago moved troops from bases guarding Murmansk, so my impression is that there aren't many regulars left to free up.

[Admiral Yi]

At worst it will deliver widespread draft dodging and civil unrest. There must be a reason Putin hasn't done it before.

[The Larch]

Apparently flights from Moscow to Istanbul have sold out after Putin's speech. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Apparently flights from Moscow to Istanbul have sold out after Putin's speech. 

That's quite the vote of confidence there

[OttoVonBismarck]

The 300,000, unless something drastically changes, is not very meaningful for the war effort. I assume it is a purely political move to placate the angry nationalists at home. It is a sign that Putin still does not want to invest anything beyond what he has already invested in this war, due to some calculus he has made.

Remember that even before this "partial mobilization", Russia had for many years technically maintained a "military force" that was several hundred thousand soldiers larger on paper than in reality (this is because of a number of issues, soldiers coming up for the mandatory conscription who never show up, lack of ability to recruit more generally etc.). A call up of people who had previously done some level of military service, who have publicly been told they will not be sent to the "special military operation", and who are likely only facing a fine if they just refuse to show up isn't going to change anything on the battlefield. The ones who do show up will be poorly trained and equipped, with terrible morale.

[The Minsky Moment]

Move a step to the right on the Russian Capitulation track.

[Josquius]

Nice from Putin to enact that travel ban on our behalf.

Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
According to Russian law, since the start of mobilisation(Putin's decree published and in force), all eligible men(25M) are prohibited to leave their areas without document from enlistment office

Russia can train, equip and deploy 300,000 soldiers to Ukraine just in time for winter?  Logistics are bad enough today.

Might use the reservists to free up additional regulars that were previously needed elsewhere?

Fair point, does make it a bit more worrying than it sounded on the surface.
This being Russia though I remain confident they'll bleed these fresh troops on pushing Ukraine back a little and leaving themselves open to being smashed again.

[The Larch]

Apparently flights from Moscow to Istanbul have sold out after Putin's speech. 

That's quite the vote of confidence there

Yerevan, Tblisi and Dubai are also in very high demand, it seems.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Apparently flights from Moscow to Istanbul have sold out after Putin's speech. 

That's quite the vote of confidence there

Yerevan, Tblisi and Dubai are also in very high demand, it seems.

The Armenians could always conscript them to fight the Azerbaijani. Stop a genocide instead of committing one.

[Jacob]

At worst it will deliver widespread draft dodging and civil unrest. There must be a reason Putin hasn't done it before.

Kamil Kazani has made the point more than once that the Russian Revolution was really kicked off by - what was it 460,000 (?) - armed Russian conscripts in the capital, waiting to be shipped out to the frontlines where they faced a high chance of being killed... and that the Russian transportation infrastructure is such that these newly mobilized soldiers will all have to pass through Moscow.

[Valmy]

Well and they sent those conscripts to shoot at protesting crowds. If you are going to run over crowds of ordinary people you better have loyal Cossacks not some random Ivans you just conscripted two weeks ago. But common sense and a firm grasp of reality were not common in the Russian government of 1917. I cannot imagine Putin would be that stupid.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I cannot imagine Putin would be that stupid.

He invaded Ukraine...