Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Duque de Bragança]

Medvedev has been struggling to stay relevant since his removal as PM a few years ago.

He used to play good cop vs bad cop Putin. Now he can't even play that act anymore.

[FunkMonk]

Putin has had an aura of invincibility around him since the Georgian war. Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, Syria, political assassinations, 2016 election meddling, W after W after W. He's become this invincible Boogeyman whose rise was irresistible and you would be a fool to get in his way. Part of the reason some on the rightwing love him is because he's just a winner.

Any setback in Ukraine, even the smallest, cracks that facade of invincibility, and I think will be important in his eventual fall. Even if or when Ukraine finally falls, Putin's stumbling into Ukraine has done a lot of damage to people's perceptions of the man, his reach, and his grasp.

[Syt]

That's near Hainan which is still some ways from Taiwan. And with such a small radius this seems more like routine stuff.

If anything, might be related to these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paracel_Islands

[mongers]

Putin has had an aura of invincibility around him since the Georgian war. Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, Syria, political assassinations, 2016 election meddling, W after W after W. He's become this invincible Boogeyman whose rise was irresistible and you would be a fool to get in his way. Part of the reason some on the rightwing love him is because he's just a winner.

Any setback in Ukraine, even the smallest, cracks that facade of invincibility, and I think will be important in his eventual fall. Even if or when Ukraine finally falls, Putin's stumbling into Ukraine has done a lot of damage to people's perceptions of the man, his reach, and his grasp.

Agreed, but it won't some the crazy Right and Left in the the West from continuing to idolise him. 

[Syt]

Him cultivating the image of a winner is one thing. His perception of being an anti-woke, tough, manly strongman is another.

[Threviel]

Apparently, and this might be fake for all I know, someone hacked Russian state TV and sends the Ukrainian national anthem on repeat.

https://twitter.com/eskelinen_antti/status/1497591042811600902

[Syt]

[Habbaku]

Is that Vienna, Syt?

Nice to see them flying the Belarusian and Georgian flags, too.

[Threviel]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

[Syt]

Is that Vienna, Syt?

Nice to see them flying the Belarusian and Georgian flags, too.

Yes. It's the Human Rights Square The statue you can slightly see rising from the crowd is in memorial of Nigerian asylum seeker Marcus Omofuma who was killed by police during his deportation (he had resisted, so police affixed and gagged him, leading to his suffocation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Omofuma

[Josephus]

I don't know how likely a palace coup in Russia is, but it appears that at least outside of Russia a coup against Russia is almost complete.  The apparent initial military setbacks seemed to have inspired the good guys and cowed the Western useful idiots and traitors into abandoning Putin.

Yes, but they need to abandon him more.

They gotta go full Cuba on Russia. No diplomatic relations. No trade. No travel. No American (and hopefully other western) companies can deal with Russia. Etc.
Yes, this will hurt Russian people; but it will egg them on to go all Yelstin on Putin.

[Sheilbh]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Apparently being lifted - but the issue is that block covered a lot of European arms because it applied for part manufacture too, like Franco-German defence production.

Really baffled by the way the German government keeps taking a blocking position on for long enough for people to get annoyed about it, and then u-turn so late that they get no credit. It's consistently picking the worst of all worlds.

[Legbiter]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Half of their coal comes from Russia, along with more than half of their natural gas and around 35% of their oil. Not to even mention other business interests. Merkel shut down their nuclear industry.

[Syt]

The krauts are still blocking weapon shipments from several countries. Official policy to avoid bloodshed, fucking hypocrites...

Apparently being lifted - but the issue is that block covered a lot of European arms because it applied for part manufacture too, like Franco-German defence production.

Really baffled by the way the German government keeps taking a blocking position on for long enough for people to get annoyed about it, and then u-turn so late that they get no credit. It's consistently picking the worst of all worlds.

Seems like standard government policy in Germany, regardless of parties involved.

[The Larch]

Interesting Twitter thread by an Estonian former chief of defence:

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038

Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin's lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.

Russians didn't have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can't physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

Russia's whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to "accidentally" hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance!

Even if only a fraction of that turns out to be true, it paints a not very rosy picture for Russia in the mid-term.